Did you (or someone you know) vote in SOUTH WEST Ohio?

[kiwi_expat]

If so, was there an NEP exit poll interviewer at the polling place, or not? We would like to know, either way. Thanks.

"We are attempting to find out the precincts used in the exit poll and
compare them to the 'tabulated' count for those precincts. Right now, we are going through the demographics of the exit poll precincts and trying to determine the actual precinct." -minvis

Precinct names/locations are extremely helpful, so precincts that did not have an exit poll, can be ignored.

minvis and others are concentrating on SOUTH WEST Ohio right now (Butler and Hamilton counties). If you know anyone who lives in that area, it would be great if you could ask them if there was an NEP exit poll interviewer at their polling place (and what the precinct was) and then let us know, here. Thanks!

[Botany]

1. Sure everybody voted for bush there ......

...... after they saw what they needed to get over the N.E. Ohio Kerry bump.

[KaliTracy]

2. I am in Bulter County -- Neither I, hubby, or In-laws (same county

different polling station) saw/experienced an NEP exit poll interviewer.

I don't know what my precinct was off-hand.

[minvis]

3. Hi KaliTracy

You're in West Chester, right? Are your in-laws in West Chester as well or somewhere else in Butler County?

[KaliTracy]

4. They are in Pisgah (right next to West Chester) they have a Cincinnati

address -- but are in Bulter county.

I voted in the early AM (around 7:45-8:00)

DH voted in the early afternoon

In-laws voted down the street about 1 an 1/2 or 2 miles down in the afternoon.

(Our place was a Methodist Church on Cox Road - there was a school on either side of the church, which I think were also polling places as well.)

[minvis]

5. Your precinct

was probably West Chester 4LU at Faith Community United Methodist Church. Do you know what kind of polling place your in-laws voted at (school, church, library, etc.)?

[KaliTracy]

6. yep, that sounds right. They voted at the church on 42/Reading

Road that is somewhat perpendicular to Cox Road.

[kiwi_expat]

10. KaliTracy, could you please contact the SOE for Butler County?

A DUer from Florida spoke to his/her county SOE and got the name of the only precinct used for exit polling in that particular county.

KaliTracy, could you please phone (or visit) the SOE(?) for Butler County and try to find out which precincts had exit polls in Butler County? I've asked someone on the Ohio forum to please check with the SOE for Hamilton County.

Thanks very much!

[KaliTracy]

11. I can do this. I'll try Monday in person, as I have a Drs appointment in

the afternoon and am taking 1/2 day from work (I work in Montgomery county (Dayton area)).

:)

[kiwi_expat]

13. Thank you so much!

[berniew1]

47. Does someone have Exit Poll data by county or precinct- I want it!!

If someone is aware of where one can see Exit Poll data by county or by precinct, I'm interested.

There is a lot of detailed analysis of the voting in SW Ohio on Dr. Richard Phillips web site

http:/northnet.org/minstrel/alpage.htm Warren, SW Ohio, etc.

also some on mine

http://www.flcv.com/fraudioh.html
http://www.flcv.com/swohio.html

[kiwi_expat]

49. Please see the "Ohio Exit Poll Raw Data" thread

There is a link to the Univ. of Michigan data in the first post on the thread.

[emlev]

7. Links to help folks find their polling places/precincts

Hamilton Co:
http://www.hamilton-co.org/boe/pollsearchs1.asp

Other counties:
http://21stcenturydems.org/index.php?src=gendocs&link=ohio&category=About%20Us

It's possible some counties have updated info for precinct assigments for future elections, but it's worth a try. Counties are listed down the right side of the webpage. If yours is highlighted

Also, Butler Co. seems to have pulled its page oflline, but the above site listed as "other counties" also contains Board of Election phone numbers, in case that's useful, for all 88 Ohio counties.

[slor]

8. CINCINNATI 20-F...

I did not see an exit pollster. I did vote at 6:30 in the morning, so maybe they did not start that early.

[abbiehoff]

9. I voted at West Chester 5LL

and didn't see any interviewers. It was early though, around 6:30 a.m. The precinct is in a Lutheran Church on Dimmick Road, and there is a second precinct in the same location.

[KaliTracy]

12. hi neighbor!

:hi:

and to think -- in this sea of red I live in that there was more blue than I knew.... *grin*

[KaliTracy]

14. do you think this last minute ban (though he was sued) on Election

day had anything to do with the Ohio Poll Results?
http://www.wcpo.com/news/2004/local/11/01/blackwell_exitpolls.html

[Wilms]

15. I did not know this

:wow:

[KaliTracy]

16. oh yes, he did all sorts of things right up until the day of election...

isn't he a fine Secretary of State to uphold fair, honest elections, with proper poll worker training, and equality of voting systems for all?

/sarcasm

[mod mom]

26. Blackwell violated HAVA, why isn't he in jail?

Kenny-boy, HAVA stands for Help America Vote Act not Help the Antichrist violate America!

[KaliTracy]

27. LOL -- well, he's got that "I am above the law" affliction that a lot of

Republicans seem to have....

[KaliTracy]

17. to be fair -- it was a restriction -- pollsters were banned less than 100

ft from the polling place -- they weren't banned all together (for those who didn't click on the link...)

[Wilms]

18. Thank you.

I like fairness.

I like it becuase it helps build robust argument.

[KaliTracy]

19. well... I try... *smile*

:)

[berniew1]

48. With all the fraud & manipulation, I can see why he wouldn't want Exit Pol

Poll done there.

And given all the known fruad, glitches, manipulation, that is known- its likely the Exit Poll data would be a lot more accurate than the official results, since they supposedly weren't subject to such.

[KaliTracy]

20. Information Pending for Butler county -- but she can't get back to

me until Wed. Morning. Needs to get to her files -- but off the top of her head felt that there were only 2 precincts that had exit pollsters.

[minvis]

21. That makes sense

From looking at the raw data, I figured that 1, possibly 2 precincts in Butler County were used. I'd be interested if one of the precincts was in Ross, Reilly or Hanover Township. The other one I think may be either in Middletown or Hamilton. Just my guesses, so I'll be interested in what she says.

[liam_laddie]

22. exit polling Hamilton County

kiwi_expat ...have you had any replies about polling here?
If not, I could check with BofE people and try to get some
data for you sometime this week. Let me know?

[kiwi_expat]

23. That would be brilliant!

Thanks very much, liam.

I have asked someone on the Ohio forum if he could check with the Hamilton County SOE, but he hasn't responded. I also seem to recall minvis asking someone to contact the Hamilton County BOE. But so far, we haven't gotten a response identifying the HC exit poll precincts.

Yes, please go for it!

[liam_laddie]

25. HAM. Cty. OH exit polling

Hello, kiwi_expat...here's some NEP info for Hamilton Cty, Ohio.
I don't have enough posts yet to e-mail you off-forum, so here it comes...guess 'minivis' and 'iceberg' are working on this, too.

Per a Sept 23, 2004 letter on an Edison/Mitofsky letterhead to BoE Director of Elections, J.M. Williams. I have a photocopy in hand provided by a BoE official, very co-operative, no problems
getting this sheet. She said that (6) ES&S tabulators are used (for the punch-cards used in Ham Cty.) These are operated by (3) Dems and (3) repugs. With a company technician
available for troubleshooting...Not sure if it takes place in public view. Could maybe check on that.

The following seven locations are on the M/S exit-polled list. Quoting from the letter: "As part of our survey, an interviewer will be stationed at the following polling place(s):"
-Anderson JJ
-2205 Cincinnati 22-E
-Cincinnati 4-M
-Evendale D
-6102 Fairfax B
-Harrison C
-4943 Sharonville 4-C

After the polls closed (7:30 pm) they also collected "...election results for certain precinct..." All seven above, plus five more listed next (12 total) were selected for collecting the results.
-1510 Cincinnati 15-J
-0804 Cincinnati 8-D
-7903 Lockland C
-3803 Madeira C
-8307 Miami Township G

I do not know the purpose of the four-digit number preceding eight of the locations. This is not a Ham. Cty. entry, so E/M
must have assigned them. Maybe E/M could shed light on what
these mean. E/M's phone at the time is shown as [phone], Somerville NJ.

BTW, there are (1,013) precincts in the Ham.Cty., and (376)
of these are in City of Cincinnati.

Has 'Rosebud' replied to 'Iceberg' regarding the questions raised in the last paragraph of note #339535, Mar 7, 11:13 am? That is, concerning operation of tabulators, plus the process of setting up and configuring punch-card machines (and who does this) which are sent out at the last minute on election day. I might be able to get answers, no promises.

Cheers to all, liam_laddie

[minvis]

28. Thanks so much for the information!

I had guessed that one of them was Evendale C on the posting link below, so I was off by one precinct.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x329749#332085

I'll check these other precincts and see how they match up to the exit poll precincts.

Thanks a lot. This saved a lot of work.

[roseBudd]

29. Liam, if you know any poll workers personally that might be the best

place to ask. I found the woman behind the desk at Hamilton County BoE shortly after the lection to be forthcoming when I questioned her about provisionals, but questions relating to integrity of the testing procedure and the procedure for ensuring that machines are assigned to the proper precincts so that tabulation matchs ballot rotation might be better asked of a known dem.

As far as punch card ballots being punched with precinct codes, I did figure out where I got that information from. It was from an Indiana pre-election punch card certification volunteer observer who has a pro punch card/anti DRE article on his web site. It certainly makes sense that punch cards would utilize this method to ensure that the tabulation program can assign the correct tabulation program to the correct precinct.

His name is Nick and I found him willing to answer questions about punch card systems.

http://www.fankhausers.com/articles/tabulation.html

[kiwi_expat]

30. Thank you liam. You are a hero!

[liam_laddie]

32. SW Ohio exit polled precincts

I posted the info requested for Hamilton Cty. If you (the team working on this project) already have the info needed for Butler, Warren or Clermont Ctys., please let me know.
If not, let me know what you need. I have some contacts in those
counties who could dig out the M/E selected precincts. Also, do
you already have the county maps you'd need to locate and identify these precincts re: demographics, etc.?
In any case, I'll make e-mail my contacts "ahead of time."
Cheers, Liam_

[KaliTracy]

33. I've contacted Butler County, and was told that 2 precincts had exit polls

but that she had to go through the files to get the information.

She assured me she would get to it quickly. Though, I'll let you know if the information doesn't come in a day or so.

[liam_laddie]

34. SW Ohio exit polls

I came into this thread a little late and can't PM yet, so pardon
the kinda random posts. You may have this info, I don't know if it's relevant. Butler Cty. - both CD1 and CD 8 zones. Warren Cty. -CD2 and CD 3. Clermont - all CD 2.

[KaliTracy]

56. liam -- Butler county just told me that there were no exit polls.. here's

thread with the email i received

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x344491

[kiwi_expat]

35. We need the exit poll precincts for Warren County, please.

KaliTracy is working on getting the Butler precincts and minvis has gotten the Clermont precincts. No one has gotten the Warren precincts, yet.

Thanks, Liam !

[kiwi_expat]

45. Skids has done an amazing job of identifying counties with exit polls.

See his post 93 on the "Ohio Exit Poll Raw Data" thread:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=329749&mesg_id=342855&page=

Unfortunately Warren County does not appear to have an exit poll precinct.

Liam, how would you like to get stuck into trying to get exit poll precincts from some of the other counties on Skids' list?

Cheers!

[skids]

41. The mysterious 4-number code... and lookie, they forgot to scramble!

Note that the 4-number code always contains the alphabetical portion of the precinct in the last one or two digits:

C = 3

-7903 Lockland C
-3803 Madeira C
-4943 Sharonville 4-C

And in the case of cincinnatti, the numeric portion is in the
first digits. So it's a chummed up version of the BoE's precinct number probably done by hand, squeezing as much data about the
town and precinct number in there as they could on an ad-hoc basis.

Let's take a look at the precincts in the NEP file, sorted by NEP's precinct number... the other numbers are the district number and the geocode.

Precinct 1/ 2/5: 25 voters
Precinct 2/ 2/5: 52 voters
Precinct 3/ 4/4: 29 voters
Precinct 5/14/2: 36 voters
Precinct 7/ 8/5: 45 voters
Precinct 8/ 8/5: 32 voters
Precinct 9/ 2/5: 53 voters
Precinct 11/11/1: 53 voters
Precinct 14/10/1: 47 voters
Precinct 15/11/1: 30 voters
Precinct 21/10/1: 21 voters
Precinct 23/14/1: 51 voters
Precinct 24/10/1: 52 voters
Precinct 26/12/3: 46 voters
Precinct 27/ 9/4: 50 voters
Precinct 33/15/3: 48 voters
Precinct 36/15/3: 25 voters
Precinct 39/15/3: 24 voters
Precinct 39/15/: 4 voters
Precinct 41/12/3: 29 voters
Precinct 42/ 7/3: 51 voters
Precinct 47/18/3: 92 voters
Precinct 48/18/3: 15 voters
Precinct 49/ 2/5: 34 voters
Precinct 51/ 1/5: 53 voters
Precinct 52/ 2/5: 31 voters
Precinct 54/ 1/5: 52 voters
Precinct 55/ 2/5: 16 voters
Precinct 57/ 1/5: 28 voters
Precinct 63/ 2/5: 48 voters
Precinct 67/14/2: 38 voters
Precinct 72/ 9/4: 44 voters
Precinct 74/ 9/4: 67 voters
Precinct 76/17/2: 32 voters
Precinct 78/ 6/2: 53 voters
Precinct 88/ 8/5: 70 voters
Precinct 91/17/2: 51 voters
Precinct 94/ 5/4: 46 voters
Precinct 98/ 2/3: 32 voters
Precinct 100/ 5/4: 52 voters
Precinct 101/16/2: 29 voters
Precinct 103/13/2: 31 voters
Precinct 104/13/2: 53 voters
Precinct 105/13/2: 48 voters
Precinct 106/13/2: 22 voters
Precinct 114/18/2: 55 voters
Precinct 115/15/3: 43 voters
Precinct 118/16/2: 28 voters
Precinct 119/16/2: 37 voters
Precinct 120/ 5/4: 43 voters

Note the grouping of district numbers and geocodes. You know what this means, right? They were lazy. They didn't scramble the numbers. The numbers are in alphabetical order by county, my guess, and probably in some order after that by precinct name/number. Perhaps the four-digit numbers above would give us a clue as to how they are sorted beyond the county.

[KaliTracy]

42. those voter counts per precinct..... are they the actual counts? If so,

is there any way to find out how many machines they had per precinct? I know mine had 5 machines (at least) -- my MILs had 2 sets of 6. Both of us voted in West Chester.

If so -- HOW -- HOW can the SOS say that this was an equitable allocation of machines throughout the state... :shrug:

[skids]

43. They are the counts of the number of people surveyed.

...in all the NEP surveys (state, regional, national)

Exit pollers skip one out of every N voters, and the N is variable, so they really can't be used to figure out much until they are mapped to the precincts and we check the ballots cast at that precinct, and even then, that gets us nowehere on how many machines (sorry).

[KaliTracy]

44. no problem -- in the light of day, things are much clearer now. *smile* nt

edit typo

[berniew1]

50. Are the poll results for these precincts known anywhere?

[minvis]

51. Yes

I know I have the precinct results for Hamilton, Butler and Clermont counties. I think Blue 22 has results from Montgomery County and I know several people already have results from Cuyahoga County. The ones we'll probably need are for Summit and Mahoning counties.

[berniew1]

53. I'm interested in seeing; getting the precinct exit poll data

[kiwi_expat]

54. It is available at http://www.icpsr.umich.edu/org/announce.html#nep

It is difficult to download and decipher. Minvis has succeeded and could perhaps give you advice. I suggest you send a PM to minvis.

[Blue22]

55. Exit poll data by precinct available

I have a version that's clenaed up and formatted into a large table. Send me an e-mail and I'll send it to you.

B-)

[skids]

52. We've got some of them, yes. n/t

[liam_laddie]

60. poll number code in Hamilton Cty. Ohio

The team may already have figured these out, but here are
the four "missing" 4-digit codes of polled precincts from the official county spreadsheet data; all 1013 precincts!
I could probably copy the relevant lines and columns into another
Excel spreadsheet, including total registered, total ballots and
votes for Bush and Kerry. But since I can't PM anyone, how could I transmit it? Is it even needed? No news from other counties yet
5636 - Anderson JJ
6804 - Evendale C
0804 - Cincinnati 4-M
3503 - Harrison C

edit - Evendale D
How have these been related to the NEP #?

[kiwi_expat]

61. 4-digit codes don't seem to be related to NEP#

The NEP#s have apparently been assigned (within county)in sequence by city name, followed by the alphanumeric number-letter code.

However, the 4-digit code may yet turn out to be of importance.

Thanks, Liam!

[minvis]

24. Please do!!

My guess is that there are 2 precincts in Cincinnati. At least one Cincinnati precinct, I believe, is in the North Avondale neighborhood due to its even racial breakdown. I believe there were possibly 2 suburban precincts in Hamilton County. One in the 1st Congressional District (western suburb) and one in the 2nd Congressional District (eastern suburb).

[KaliTracy]

31. UPDATE: Butler County Information is still Pending -- Says she's been

buried this week (she was out one day), and the files are "huge" -- promises to e-mail me the information as soon as she gets it. Only 2 precincts had exit polls, though she still doesn't know which ones they were.

[minvis]

36. Who's your contact in Butler County?

I contacted the person who helped me previously with ballot order and precinct totals information. I think her name is Lori Davis. Is that the same person you've contacted?

[KaliTracy]

37. Yes. When I called the BOE and told them I was interested in getting

information regarding Exit Polls, that's who they transfered me to.

[minvis]

38. I e-mailed her yesterday

she got back to me right away, but said she didn't have the information right then and would have to retrieve it from the files. Sounds like a similar line she told you.

[KaliTracy]

39. I gave her the benefit of the doubt when she said she was out on Tuesday

and would call me Wed. I work in Centerville and didn't really want to call long-distance from work (and forgot to charge my cell...) anyway -- since she didn't get back to me on Wed or Thursday, I called her today -- said she was on it - but that the files were huge. I just find it odd (not in a really off-way) that the information for Hamilton was gotten so easily, though I suppose having a true "contact" would expedite things...

Did you see the latest about Butler County BOE though? They are in kind of a shake-up mode right now...

Election board maneuvering divides Butler County GOP

By Janice Morse
Enquirer staff writer


"HAMILTON - Longtime Republicans Judy Shelton and Lynn Edward Kinkaid say their conduct with the Butler County Board of Elections must remain politically neutral.

"Both say they are trying to maintain this stance amid political controversy over Kinkaid's appointment to the board last week.

"Shelton, a Republican representative on the four-member elections board, nominated Kinkaid as board director and joined two Democrats in voting for him without obtaining the county GOP's blessing first, incurring the wrath of Republican leaders.

"The party's executive committee will meet March 10 to decide whether to try to get the secretary of state to remove Shelton as a result of her actions, and to vote on whether the committee would have supported Kinkaid or someone else."

More: http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20050302/NEWS01/503020415/1056/NEWS0102

[minvis]

40. I e-mailed Clermont County at the same time

and within a hour got their list of exit poll precincts. Granted it was only one precinct, but I don't think Butler's going to have more than 2. I didn't know about the controversy in their office. Thanks for the link. Sounds like a little cat fight within the local Republican leadership.

Sounds like they want total control of even this little office holders, but as we've seen from these past elections, the SOS and BOE's can have a lot of power in suppressing/counting the vote.

[KaliTracy]

57. bulter county says no exit polls. is that what she told you? see this

thread for the email I received.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x344491

[minvis]

58. No

She hasn't gotten back to me. That's interesting because we think we've cracked the way NEP numbered their precincts and there should be two Butler County precincts.

[KaliTracy]

59. I thought it weird since she originally told me there may have been two

---- but now she says that she doesn't even know if the media did any. :shrug:

[mod mom]

46. Perhaps these two repub outcasts might be persuaded to see the light and

talk about their experiences. ?Whistle-blowers?

[liam_laddie]

81. Butler County NEP precincts

Direct from the E/M NEP letterhead...(thanks to anonymous!)
Two precincts had both exit-polling and final results collected.

- 355 Middletown City 3DF
(poll location: Calvary Baptist Church, 1601 Jackson Lane,
Middletown 45042)

- St. Clair Twp. 4KE
(poll location: New Miami Church Of Christ, 104 Highland Ave.,
Hamilton 45011)

The original hint that there were two is correct. (BTW, L. Davis
is a republican AA, I believe) Butler used punch cards...not sure about Warren and Clermont. Someone upthread said ES&S or Triad tabulators are used in these three counties. For the experts...where or how might tab outputs be manipulated? If all signals (vote totals) are hard-wired and kept in-house?

Looks like Hamilton runs an honest operation...may not be the best place for discovering anomalies in exit-poll vs."final" NEP results, but I certainly don't know the possible exploits. The tabulators (six, ES&S) use a header card at top of each ballot deck to identify precinct. Output is sent to an in-house BoE computer center with no modem connection to any external computer. So I was told. This fully in-house system has been in place for many years. They make CD's of results through the evening as count progresses, for media and party use. There are plenty of observers from both (all?) parties present.

The punch cards are counted (not by race or issue) at precinct level. This is to audit the total (A) ballots provided to poll, and (B) number cast, spoiled, provisionals, and unused at close of poll. Cards are counted again at BoE and checked for chads or tears before going to tabulator. Totals A&B should agree, and also agree with the tabulator results. If not, deeper investigation ensues. The cards are counted during further checks and audits at BofE two more times. In an average year, the initial A&B totals might not agree in 50 of 1,013 precincts, so they try to find the problem. It's usually a hand-miscount at the precinct. Not sure yet if they have any unsolved mis-matches. I'll post more Ham Cty info next week (per Blue22's post of Mar 13.) BTW, average age of the poll workers is 62, some are 80 plus! A national problem, I've read.

I've contacted the correct BoE people in Lucas, Cuyahoga, and Mahoning, by phone or e-mail or both but not heard back re: NEP exit-polled precincts. Will bug them all next week.

Could someone from the analysis/stat part of the team list which
info is still missing from which counties? I don't want to spend time looking for already discovered data. Do all subject counties have their full results available? All races, ballots, turnout, etc. Ham Cty has a complete Excel spreadsheet online.

Welcome back, kiwi_expat...

[kiwi_expat]

82. Thus, Middletown City is NEP precinct #7, and St. Clair is #8

Thank you, Liam! Thanks to you, we now know the identity of the Ohio NEP precinct with the greatest %Bush gain in the final NEP totals: it is Middletown City.

Thank you so much for getting the ballot-counting information from Hamilton County. Did you discuss the possibility of a citizen-based manual recount with them? The HC precinct we would most like to get recounted is Cinnci 4-M.

The only other information we have, so far, is precinct vote totals for Butler, Hamilton and Clermont counties (Reg. Voters, Ballots Cast, Pct. Turnout, Undervotes, Undervote Pct., and candidate totals) plus Ballot Order and "Crawl" for Butler.

[liam_laddie]

83. Cincy 4-M

kiwi_expat/ "team" - I think they'll let me compare the log book (voter signatures) with the ballot deck, but I'm not sure if
I'd be able to actually handle the ballots. They are sensitive about
any damage that could occur to the punch cards, any
unpunched-out chads coming out etc., but I'll give it a shot later
this week. It is not impossible, as these are public records, available under Ohio sunshine law.
The logbooks' page two has a "ballot accounting chart" - six columns with hand entries, signed by each of the four precinct workers, called judges, always (2)R & (2)D for each precinct. The presiding judge, D or R, is determined by which party carried that precinct in last election. Entries are done by the judges as a team after poll closes. For 4-M, these are:
1) Blank ballots received from BoE - 605
2) Number of cards in ballot box - 423
3) No. of provisionals in ballot box - 8
4) Soiled and defaced ballots (placed in an envelope) - 12
5) Number of unused ballots remaining - 79 (crossed out, then
162 is entered next to 79); the difference of 83 could have been
a counting error by judge(s), corrected on a second try at the
poll. Or something else, but what? I'll have to ask some of the
judges about this. I have their names, should be able to call
them. Looks like all numbers were entered by same hand.
6) Total of columns 2 to 5 - 605 (using the 162 from col. 5)

Sending reminder e-mails to other counties tomorrow - surprised that I haven't been mailed NEP precincts yet....

[kiwi_expat]

84. Could you look over the shoulder of a county ballot-handler?

You wouldn't have to actually hold the cards, yourself. You just need to be able to verify the vote on each card. Perhaps they could put each card on something like a lighted slides-organizer. Do you happen to own one?


I don't know what has happened to the rest of the team. I sure hope that my bossy-boots-ness hasn't scared anyone away. Minvis and blue22 where are you? We need you!!

[minvis]

85. I'm here finally!

I've been hit hard for the past 3 weeks with a bad cold, bronchitis or whatever it was. I have been checking in periodically to follow the various threads. Sorry, I haven't been available for research, number crunching, etc. Do you want me to continue on with Congressional District 8 and the others that seemed to have the largest difference in exit poll and "actual" vote counts? I'll have to go back to the Exit Poll threads to try and remember which districts those were.

[kiwi_expat]

91. Welcome back, minvis!!

I'm very sorry to hear that you have been sick all this time. I hope you are feeling somewhat better now.

Regarding further research, Blue22's priority list based on %Bush gain (#110 on the "Ohio Exit Poll Raw Data" thread) shows Summit county as being a particular worry - right up there with Butler and Hamilton.

Most of all we just need your wise counsel. Do you see any problem with Liam going to the BofE and trying to inspect (count) the Cincy 4-M ballots?

[minvis]

92. Thanks!

No, I don't think it would be a problem. I look forward to what Liam finds out.

[liam_laddie]

93. review punch-card ballots?

Team - re: Ham Cty OH BoE procedures...
I'll be inquiring about inspecting punch-cards soon. Meanwhile, I've learned from a staffer:
1) Absentee ballots are mailed out with the correct precinct marked on the back.
2) Once received at BoE, they are placed in an envelope for that
precinct, then when the initial, non-official counting begins on election night, they are placed with the ballot deck for that precinct. After that, they are not sorted again from the regular
ballots (those cast at the poll). However, I would think that by
inspecting the backs of all ballots in a precinct deck, one could
separate out the absentees.
3) Provisional ballots are also counted at this time. Remember, this is the initial count, not the later, official count. The provisional
ballots are checked for authenticity after the initial count. Some
will be discarded, most will be counted. Not sure if BoE has the
raw numbers or % accepted. Or if they run all county provisionals
as a group, then distribute the accepted votes to correct precinct.

One reason I'm curious about absentee counts is that I did a numbers exercise. County-wide, absentees were 10.47% of
votes cast. How does that compare to a larger base? Here are the numbers for the four subject precincts. The list order is: Total registered - total from poll's log/signsture book (entry done at poll-closing, includes provisionals) - total "ballots cast" from official count spreadsheet - (turnout %) - difference between poll and official totals (I assume to be absentee - or ghost?) - % absentee in that precinct - B/K margin

Cinti. 4-M: 640 - 431 - 532 (83%)- 101 - 19% - 59/40
Ander-JJ: 557 - 431 - 483 (87%) - 52 - 10.8% - 71/27
Evend.-D: 384 - 275 - 328 (85%) - 53 - 16% - 72/27
Sharon.4-C: 577 - 418 - 474 ( 82%) - 56 - 12% - 68/32

May be co-incidental that of these four precincts, which are historically strong republican, three have absentee counts of (52), (53), and (56.) Cincy 4-M (101), a wealthy precinct in a very desirable neighborhood (strongly upper-middle and higher) would have nearly 2x avg. absentee rate. (many may have been in the tropics in Nov. right?) As has been noted elsewhere, cooking the count in already strong repub. precincts would be a less obvious distortion. Am I being paranoid? (smile) I'll do this exercise for same precincts in 2000 and maybe a few extra 2004 precincts, including several strong Kerry. Whatcha' think?

BTW, (165) of all (1013) precincts had turnout rates of 85% or higher; (21) were above 90%. Of these (165), only SEVEN went Kerry! Look suspicious? What do you analyst/crunchers think?
Damn, those repubs were motivated...(another big smile)

I'll attempt to check the four ballot decks for absentee markings,
see if they agree with my "difference." Cheers to all!!

[minvis]

94. Same thing in Butler and Clermont Counties

I found the same thing in Butler and Clermont counties. None of the Kerry precincts had turnouts over 70% while many of the Bush precincts had 80 and 90 % turnouts.

[kiwi_expat]

95. Great sleuthing, Liam. Thank God you're on the "team"!

"BTW, (165) of all (1013) precincts had turnout rates of 85% or higher; (21) were above 90%. Of these (165), only SEVEN went Kerry! Look suspicious? What do you analyst/crunchers think?
Damn, those repubs were motivated...(another big smile)"

You could very well be onto something big. Let's hope you can get the goods on some phantom voters and/or tabulator vote switching!!!


If you are allowed to see the Cincy 4-M cards, in addition to keeping a tally of the votes please take detailed notes of the cards with hanging chads etc. Ohio has explicit rules for the number of attached corners on a countable chad.

And definitely check the cards' backs to see if they are absentee ballots, as you propose. I am surprised that the absentee ballots are punched cards. I wonder how the absentee voter punches the ballot.

I didn't realize that the provision ballots were counted (unofficially) BEFORE they are verified. Those numbers will be extremely helpful. Are the rejected provisional ballots actually thrown away?

We look forward to your next BofE report with great anticipation!

[liam_laddie]

96. absentee ballot

I voted absentee this year; over 65 (I'm 67) one doesn't need an
excuse to ask for absentee. You send in a request, they match your address to precinct, mark precinct on back of ballot card, mail you the ballot with correct issue/race page. The ballot is stapled to a thin sheet of plastic foam and includes a sort of paper clip for a punch. Works just fine; the issue/race page w/instructions is clear; it seems to be a well-thought-out "system."

You mail the marked ballot back to BoE. Has to be there by 7pm (IIRC) on election day. The precinct signature log book used at poll has your name deleted, to avoid double voting. These books are printouts so they're very current on day-of-election.

Pardon if I'm long-winded about the procedures here, but I know some don't vote w/punch cards, so this might help them "picture the process, etc."

[kiwi_expat]

97. Please don't hesitate to be "long-winded" in your descriptions.

Thanks, Liam.

I appreciate being able to visualize how the process works.

[kiwi_expat]

98. Please also look for absentee ballots without Kerry's name on them

http://www.eriposte.com/election04/2004_results_1.htm#II-10
Lists several problems in HC, including absentee ballots without Kerry's name on them and bogus registrations. I don't know how you would recognize the bogus registrations unless they have already been identified by the HC BofE staff.

Good luck, Liam!

[kiwi_expat]

106. Here is a picture of the "punched card" with Kerry's name missing.

But you don't need to worry about it, Liam. The problem is reported to have only occurred in Forest Park, which you will not be counting.

http://www.cincypost.com/2004/10/18/largeballot101804.html

[liam_laddie]

103. ?? ballots 'frozen" re: Green Party lawsuit ??

Does anyone know anything about the status of and effect on
our effort re: this suit? Following is a partial quote from a post in today's J30 daily e-mail digest. J30 is an on-line Ohio-centered activist group dedicated to election reform and other progressive
efforts.
"...because I am away (returning next week) and because the BOE's are not allowing examination of the ballots while the Green Party's lawsuit demanding a new re-count is still pending."

I haven't had any BoE official bring this up. Maybe it's not on their
radar or the quote doesn't apply currently. Anyone?

[kiwi_expat]

105. qwghlmian asked about that on the Ohio forum:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=172&topic_id=5335#5357

One person on the forum checked the recount request procedure with their BofE. The BofE did not mention the ballots being frozen.

Qwghlmian thought that the ballots might be available prior to the judge making a ruling on the Greens' case.

On the other hand, maybe it is a matter of the Greens' suit not being on some BofEs' radar. In which case, there is still no harm in asking to see the ballots. It is the BofE's problem, not yours.

Just don't mention the Greens' lawsuit. :-)

[kiwi_expat]

99. Is "Anderson JJ" actually Anderson U ? It was recounted in Dec. recount

Liam, if you can recount a second precinct (in addition to Cincy 4-M), I recommend Sharonville 4-C. Evendale has turned out to be not very high on the Ohio priority list

The Greens' recount notes for Hamilton County are very interesting:
http://www.votecobb.org/recount/ohio_reports/counties/hamilton.php#dec14-15

Hamilton County does look like a pretty clean operation, just as you said, Liam.

[kiwi_expat]

100. Sorry. "Anderson JJ" and "Anderson U" both exist.

So Anderson JJ is a good precinct to recount - it was not recounted in December. (I finally located the Hamilton County excel spreadsheets and checked the precinct names.) But I think you will have your hands full just counting Cincy 4-M.

Also, regarding my comment that HC looks like a pretty clean operation: it looks as though they are helpful and transparent, but they did choose to reject provisional ballots cast at the wrong precinct although the precincts were both at the same polling place (just at different tables). Apparently 400 provisional ballots were rejected in HC for that reason.

Cheers.

[liam_laddie]

101. 3% recount selection

Recount of 3% of votes cast required 12,992 votes to be reviewed (3% of 433,058 cast.)

BoE staffer told me they used the county results "ballots cast" column by running trial totals of every 5th precinct, then 6th, then 7th and so on until the "votes cast" total = 12992 (rounded off) Guess they hit the magic number using every 34th precinct, per Green Party document. This seems to be a true random method, if I understand "random." They apparently ran thirty or so trials to get to the final precinct selection list.

FWIW, I looked at the 2000 election canvass...was just curious.
2000 - Bush 204,175 (53%) Gore - 161,578 (42%) Absentee 9.44% (1023) precincts (some consolidation I assume.) Turnout 2000 (65.6%), 2004 (75.5%). In 2000, only (18) precincts had turnout of 85%+. Of these (18) only (2) went Gore. In 2004, (160) precincts were 85%+. Of these (160) only (7) went Kerry. Hmmm...

In 2004, city went Kerry 66.3% / Bush 30.3%. County went Bush
62.5% / Kerry 35.5%. Just like the national maps showing cities as blue islands in red seas. Another interesting point that's
turned up: (52) Senators represent 18% of the population.
The big state / little state conundrum in the Senate. --sigh--

I don't think there will be any names, Kerry marked, etc.; the
punch cards have no names. The races and issues are printed on stiff card pages which are flipped over to continue through
the ballot. If you've never seen/used a punch-card "machine," it's not easy to describe. Check Doug Jones' website, a great resource for all things elections. Here's a specific URL
<http://www.cs.uiowa.edu/~jones/voting/pictures/>
Look at pp. 8-9-10 in particular.

Because of the "rotation" of names, it may be difficult to identify
Kerry or Bush votes on each card, just not certain about it. BoE should have which ballot sequence was used at that precinct, so looking at the "right" punch-outs would be a manual (not tabulator) recount. Not sure, will determine when I get down there again. Hope by next Wed. Sorry it seems so slow...

[Iceburg]

102. Assessing Turnout ...

First let me commend you Liam from the bottom of my heart ... Without this essential groundwork, all the analysis in the world will fall on deaf ears without some corroborating facts. If I was even within 1000 miles of Ohio, I would be pleased to join you. But alas, I am far way in Ontario, Canada.

Regarding turnout and your observations, a recommended method for assessing turnouts (and its associated outliers) is to use percentiles instead of averages... it is a much more valid and meaningful method of measurement. If you are not familiar with this technique pm me and I can fill you in, or alternatively you can post the data on DU (in fixed width or comma delimited format) or send the data (precinct name, vote address, vote city, registered voters, ballots cast) and I can perform the analysis and tell you which precincts are true outliers.

With respect to the ballot orders/styles/sequences, the names will not be printed on the ballot, instead a block/sector of the card will be devoted to each contest, and the candidates (ie. their designated position) will be rotated within that contest block.
Now, the BOE may have the ballot styles posted on their internet site. I was able to get a copy of all the Cuyahoga ballots styles from their web site.

I'm not sure which precinct in which county you are pursuing but I would recommend that you know in advance that they can supply you with the ballot style one way or another as one cannot possibly count or recount the vote without knowing the ballot styles.

Liam, do you plan to look at any other contests besides the presidential contest? If so, you will need to know their respective ballot sequences as well. If you are planning on looking at other contests, the USA Senator's contest and the Chief Justice of the Supreme Court contest are good picks.

Lima, if I can be of any assistance from afar, I would be more than pleased to help out.

Iceburg

[liam_laddie]

104. Thanks, Iceburg

Too bad most of us here don't have enough posts to PM one another. And hey, Toronto's only 400 miles as the ComairCRJ
flies, Ottawa about 625. Have had excellent visits to both cities.
National Art Museum in Ottawa is fantastic, building and site!

I'm focused on the Hamilton County, Ohio, presidential. Just
gathering data for others to crunch...If you want to do some of the operations you've described, here's the Hamilton BoE URL

<http://www.hamilton-co.org/boe/>

Click election results/archived results in LH window. You can
download the 2004 complete results in Excel spreadsheet, and a lot of earlier elections as well. Is there any use in crunching the same precincts in earlier prez elections?

I vote on punch-cards; county's been using the old IBM (now ES&S) Votomatic's for over 25 years...I'm aware with the "blocks" of punch-out locations. We're doing four precincts with "high" Bush flips. You could do the first three: in order of importance - Cincinnati 4-M, Anderson JJ, Sharonville 4-C, Evendale D.

If I do get to inspect/recount, especially absentees, I'll do Cin4-M
and And JJ.

[kiwi_expat]

107. Were Cincy4-M or AndersonJJ in polling places with multiple precincts?

If either was in a multi-precinct polling place, I wonder if there would be any way to identify cards that had been punched/counted in the wrong precinct's machine. Maybe you and Iceburg can work out a strategy for identifying them.

There is great potential for mistakes/fraud in punched-card multi-precinct polling places.

Mistakes/fraud, of this type, tend to hurt the leading candidate in the precinct. It is fortunate for our analysis that Cincy4-M is heavily Democratic and AndersonJJ is heavily Republican!

[kiwi_expat]

108. Obviously we will catch any mis-tabulated cards in the recount....

...without any special efforts.

There is still the question of whether we can detect if cards were punched on the wrong precinct's machine - assuming that there were different card-punching machines for the different precincts. Or are regular ballots punched manually, in the same way as absentee ballots?

Perhaps you and Iceburg can come up with an easy-to-spot clue that cards were mis-punched. Or maybe that would be too much trouble for this first effort, since you will be working alone, Liam.

Would you like for us to try to find another DUer to help you next Wednesday? What time is your appointment?

[Iceburg]

115. Scenarios re: mispunching

Mistabulation errors can originate from:
a) mispunchs at the local precinct
b) misreads during the card reading process (machine reader problems, card stock problems, chad problems)
c) wrong/misplaced precinct header cards
d) ballot card mix-ups at the counting station (example dropping a deck of stacked ballot cards) before commencing the counting process). Trust me it happens!
e) miscounts during the central tabulation process due to flawed logic

In this manual recount we are only considering item a) above, the results of which will be compared to the post-precinct activities and its associated results.

Scenario 1 Mispunchs - Correct machine/votebook setup but ballot cards crossed precincts
====================================================================
Assumptions
1) Precinct identifier is stamped somewhere on the ballot

2) You know what machine had what ballot style designation. Each precinct will have multiple machines. Most of the machines were installed before poll opening. A few precincts will have had machines added after poll opening due to problems with the other machines. Be on alert for precincts with machines added after poll opening. In Cuyahoga, a significant percentage of the precincts where machines were added indicate gross mistabulation of ballots. It is likely in these cases the new machines were either configured incorrectly or placed in the wrong precinct with that vote location (essentially this is just a special case of machine configuration error). The BOE should have some audit records with respect to the machine#/ballot style relationship and when the machines were placed in the vote location.

3) Vote Books on machines were set-up correctly. Unfortunately there is know way of knowing that with precision without examining the machines/ballot frame/vote book which I assume have been reconfigured for other elections by now. A less precise method, would be to get the vote count/distribution by machine for each precinct. The BOE does not publish this in public places but they will have an audit record for each machine. This is very important information to obtain.

4) No ballots have been replaced others post-election(I call this the "Conservation of Ballots Law" -- no ballots created or destroyed)

Possible outcomes:

Used the right card on the right machine - detectable with pct stamp
Used the right card on the wrong machine - detectable with pct stamp
Used the wrong card on the right machine - detectable with pct stamp
Used the wrong card on the wrong machine - detectable with pct stamp

Scenario 2 - Incorrect machine/vote book setup in the precinct
====================================================================
Assumptions
1) The precinct has more than voting machine
2) You know what machine was alleged to have what ballot style designation. Same details as assumption #2 in Scenario 1.

It is highly unlikely that all machines in a given precinct will have been configured wrong -- if so it will be patently obvious (as in the case of Cleveland 4N and 4F).

So the goal here will be to identify the machine whose vote distribution data contradicts the data from the other machines' data in that specific precinct.

Unless we know the candidate vote counts by machine (the lowest level of granularity) it will be impossible to detect whether the ballots have been mis-punched.
-------------------------------------------------
To summarize, if you want to find out which ballots were mis-punched (as per scenario 1 and 2 above), you need to confirm that the precinct identifier is stamped on the ballot card plus, you need to know:
a) the exact ballot style deployed in the precinct
b) the ballot style to machine number relationship
c) the vote distribution by machine (precinct count alone is not sufficient)

It is possible to conduct the recount with no consideration to scenario #2 -- ie. machine configuration errors, but it will be at the risk of excluding one of the more likely causes of mistabulation.
I believe (from my analysis) that there was some random cross-precinct voting, but I strongly believe that the bulk of the mistabulations were due to precinct machine configuration problems, and problems during the central tabulation process.

Hope that helps.

[liam_laddie]

109. Reply to #107 & #108

Will call Friday a.m. to see if I can get answer to multi-precinct /
polling locations for Cincy 4-M & And JJ. BTW, both precincts
were heavy Bush: Cincy 4-M was B59% - K40% Anderson JJ was B71% - K27%. Don't understand your last sentence.
Do you need a strong Kerry-win precinct for comparison? I could
pick one, or maybe Iceburg would, from the downloadable 2004
spreadsheet.

No definite appointment yet for inspection of punch-cards.

Punch tool is basically a small screwdriver handle with stiff
wire shaft about 1/2" long; tool is bead-chained to the machine
like ballpoint pens at a bank :-) Tool pushes the chad out, into a
pocket below the card; the chads can accumulate into quite a "pile" and may be emptied from time to time. Tool is guided by holes in a clear plastic plate under the card; hole spacing matches the die-cut spacing in the card. By flipping the ballot page over, a new line of holes is exposed for the next row of chads. The link in my earlier mail to Prof. Doug Jones' site shows this. HTH

[liam_laddie]

110. More...

Too late to remember all the points I neglected last post.
Each machine's folding "side wings" have precinct identity (Cin 4-M, etc.) stenciled on. They don't change machine count per precinct much from election to election, at least in the city. We did hear of long lines or waits at some inner-city spots, but I've no data at hand. It rained all day, a bitch! More growth in suburbs, so machine assignments can increase "out there."

Ham Cty owns 6000 machines for 1013 precincts; I was told all were out in the field on Nov 2. With about a 450,000 possible turnout, that's one machine for each 75 voters. I think they figure about 100-150 registrations / machine to figure needs at each precinct. I was a K-E "precinct captain" at one poll location with two precincts. We had four machines each for a (524) reg. and a (424) reg. Plus each had one special machine for wheelchair access (basically shorter legs, brighter lamp.) There are four poll
workers for each precinct, 2D's & 2R's. Some at my poll were pretty old, but seemed experienced in the procedures. Hell, they'd been doing this for decades! Need to recruit younger replacements...

If any repairs or card un-jamming needs to be done, there're (12) troubleshooters positioned around the county. They carry replacement ballot pages for all precincts in their region, so if any ballot pages are defaced or need to be replaced, the techs have what they need. yawn...good night...

[kiwi_expat]

111. Houston, we have a problem.

Oh My. I will reactivate the "Ohio Exit Poll.." thread and get minvis and blue22 to look at this:

As far as I can see, NEP Precinct 52 is Cincy4-M, with twice as many Kerry voters as Bush voters, even on the final weighted version it is still Kerry 22 to Bush 14. If Mitofsky was trying to match the actual Kerry 211 Bush 312 ratio, he didn't do too well. Or we have mis-identified NEP #52 (and thus all of the others)!

I haven't read your descriptions of the punch card process, yet. I promise to tonight. Is there a chance that a person could mis-punch their card in another precinct's pattern?

Thanks for everything, Liam. We all appreciate you very much!!

[kiwi_expat]

112. Cincy 4-M is very weird, but the NEP# is OK.

The only HC NEP precinct with an actual Kerry win is Cincy 22-E, which has to be NEP#51. Too bad that Cincy 22-E is so far down our priorities list.

Liam, I suggest that you just do Cincy 4-M. It should be quite interesting.

Thanks!

[liam_laddie]

113. Reply to #111, #112

#111 Mis-punch? Could be, but voters are given (3) opportunities to "get it right" per their intent. That is, if a voter
screws up the first punch-card in some manner, they are given
(2) more chances. The 3rd time is it, that's their last chance.
Poll workers take the spoiled card before giving the voter another blank. These are put it in a "spoiled / defaced" envelope which is put in the transfer pouch at end of day, along with a "provisional" envelope and of course the "regulars."

In 4-M, there were (8) provisionals and (12) spoiled. I hope to
identify absentees by the stamped precinct identifier on back.
There is the question of why (79) was crossed through and (162)
was written in, in the "unused card total" box in the "ballot accounting chart" (inside front cover of sig log book.) May have been a simple error...a deck of blank cards could have been overlooked. Or not. The entries in all six boxes appear to be by the same hand although a different ball point may have been used for the "unused" and "final" totals. A paranoid observation, probably... :--)

As to the ballot itself (the flip-page booklet with races, issues) -
there can be 400-500 different ballot forms used in a county-wide election, what with rotation, different issues and races in all the villages, townships, cities in Ham. Cty. There are (49) separate political entities here.

The ballot pages are proof-read four times at least before going to printer, then checked again after printing. The flip-page ballots are installed in the correct machine which is identified for each precinct. And this process is double-checked, so each poll should receive the correct ballot / machine sets. The machines are delivered to the poll starting around 6 p.m. the night before.
The four poll workers set them up. By that I mean install the
two-piece tubular legs, open the three wings, check the light, position the machines and tables in the room, hang precinct identity signs and such other legal notices as required.

#112 I'll check 4-M next week. My concern is the high absentee
rate - (101) of (532) cast, 19%. I'll try to look at the '96 and '00 sig books to check 4-M's absentee rate then. Of course, it's very a convenient way to vote; with 4-M being a "high-achiever" neighborhood, the 4-M'ers may prefer that convenience. I did...

I'll use Blue22's post of Mar 13, the (29) points to research, as a basis of inquiry. I believe about (19) relate to the punch-card process. Some are N/A. Is the demographic of 4-M needed?
Later...

[Iceburg]

114. If hamilton county is anything like cuyahoga county...

expect most of the precincts to be in multi-precinct locations. 90% of Cuy's were.
There will be NO punched precinct identfier on the card (Ohio does not prescribe it by law) and I have personally had this confirmed by Cuy's BOE in writing. I am told by voters in Cuyahoga that there is an ink stamp on the back of front of the card although I have not confirmed this with the county officials. That would be an imporant point to discuss with your BOE officials.

Re:"There is great potential for mistakes/fraud in punched-card multi-precinct polling places."
Very much an undertstatement ...given that there are over 35-50 contests in each county all candidate names must be rotated by law and MOREOVER given that they do not prescribe to pre-punching the precinct identfier on each precincts card the probabilty that a mistake will be made is almost a certainty.

Take Cuyahoga county...5 distinct ballot order styles were deployed in the contest for president. Since the state requires by law that the candidates names in the federal, state and county contests be rotated on the ballot, when we include the ballot styles from the 41 other candidate contests in Cuyahoga the total number of unique ballot styles deployed in this county was 1105. This is an astonishing number of combinations when you consider that the ballot pages in the vote book must be in precise harmony with both the card readers and tabulators that eventually determine the results.

Clearly to test the validity of the vote machine setup would require considerable time. Further, to test the validity and accuracy of the tabulator would require not only considerable time but an extremely large test deck of ballot cards. What test procedures were implemented in Cuyahoga to ensure the machines, and their respective vote books and pages were set-up appropriately, and tabulators coded accurately?

[Iceburg]

116. Liam, thanks for the link ...

Sorry, but I won't be able to join you this time -- we have a fed election looming up here and I need to devote my spare time to fending off the evil Conservative/Reform party. I'm in the Ottawa area so your right its not that far ... less than a 2 hour flight. That said, your BOE is unlikely to let a rascally little Canadian view their ballots.

How many posts does one rquire before one can use the pm function? I thought it was only 10 or 20 posts? Perhaps the admins have changed the rules.

Iceburg

[liam_laddie]

117. replies to 114, 115, 116

#114, 115 - Thanks for all the info here. HC has (6) ES&S tabulators. They'll use all six in a Presidential year, fewer in off-year or smaller, intra-county elections. Count is observed by (3) D's and (3) R's, one at each machine(?). To me, it would be better to have one D and one R at each machine, (12) total. Also, tab machine room has observation windows; I will ask to see this room. The results are sent to an in-house server. No outside connections or modems, I was told. I'm assuming that
the tab output is a digital file.

Will also find out if any other precincts voted at same location as 4-M. And maybe they'll have a similar stat as Cuyahoga re: % of precincts at multi-precincts polls across the county.

#116 - PM threshold? Don't know the # needed, and they won't disclose. I emailed Skinner last week about this, listing all the usernames who are working on SWOhio. Got a very cordial reply; they can't make an exception for our "team," which I understand.

[minvis]

118. I would bet over 50%

My guess, from what I've seen in Clermont and Butler Counties, is that well over half the precincts shared a polling location with another precinct(s).

[kiwi_expat]

62. rosebud57 and liam_laddie: would you like to do a citizen's recount?

Hamilton County raw (sample-adjusted) data comparisons with final NEP Kerry and Bush totals show the largest discrepancies in 4 precincts: Anderson, Cincinnati 4-M, Evendale, and Sharonville.

Do either of you live near one of those 4 precincts? How would you like to do a (free) citizen's recount at one of the precincts?

You wouldn't actually be handling the ballots. You would just be counting and taking notes. You could invite your friends to help!

[liam_laddie]

63. recount

kiwi - I'm reasonably sure all ballots are stored either at or
near the BoE offices downtown. Don't know if it's possible to do this; I'll have to call someone. Since they're punch-cards, we'd have to handle them, yes? The ballots cast in the four precincts
total 1817 votes. Do you want only one of the precincts re-counted? I'm willing to check into it; probably need to explain a good reason as to why we'd want to do this.

I've been wondering about TruthIsAll and that team's referring to
pre-2004 exit polls; do they have the raw data, before final
weighting, for these earlier elections? Would seem to be essential for comparisons. But I'm not an analyst.

Have made voice contact with BoE execs in Lucas, Cuyahoga
and Franklin. Follow-up e-mailed them. Called a couple others. Perhaps will hear soon which precincts (if any) were NEP'd.

Damn, wish we could PM one another!

[kiwi_expat]

64. Thanks Liam !

Of course, you must be right about the ballots being stored at the BoE county offices. How stupid of me.

I'm not sure if you would have to handle the punched cards or not. You would certainly have to be sitting very close to the person holding the card. :-)

It would be great to count all 4 precincts, or all 7 for that matter - if that is feasible.

The pre-2004 data that TIA is referring to are national pre-final totals. There might be pre-2004 state/precinct level data available as well, but TIA is not using it. (I think Skids might have a link to more detailed data.)

The Univ. of Michigan 2004 NEP data that we are using, has raw data and final-weights. We do not have the pre-final weights.
Blue22 has suggested that the best way to use our data is to try to identify those precincts that Mitofsky, himself, had to weight most heavily in his final-adjustment.

(I have tried to infer rough pre-final weights by using a crude sample-size adjustment = 40/sample size, based on the fact that all precincts with sample sizes > 40, have weights < 1; and all precincts with sample sizes < 40, have weights > 1.)

Have you tried PMing me lately? If you still can't, can you PM minvis? Maybe we can exchange e-mail addresses through him.

[liam_laddie]

68. sample size

I've read somewhere that only about 250+ precincts were exit-polled by NEP. And Ohio had 50? Did they really focus on just the swing states? How many in FL? Your estimate of +/-40 interviews/precinct would total 10,000 plus, so it's likely your
sample is close. A few more responses/precinct or some tens of precincts more would total out to the initial raw data number.

Can't PM anyone through DU until I generate some minimum number of posts (DU rules.) And no idea how many that is...
I don't imagine we'd want to exchange e-mail addresses through this forum, so I don't know the solution...

[kiwi_expat]

65. Blue22's priority list is excellent.

Please see Blue22's priority list at
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=329749&mesg_id=343228&page=

Mitofsky's final-data heavy Kerry-Bush re-weighting should be sufficient justification for citizen investigation/recounts of selected precincts. The precincts with the highest "percent Bush gains" should be examined first.

Anderson, Cinci 4-M, and Sharonville are among the highest re-weighted Ohio precincts.

Thanks for checking into this with the HC BoE, Liam.

[roseBudd]

71. Is it possible to do it in the evening or on Saturday?

LizzieforKerry may be willing to help.

[Iceburg]

66. Do you have any exit polls identfied for Cuyahoga county

cuz' I've got all the data & goods on that county. I have a very good handle on which precincts have a **very high** likehood of having been mis-tabulated (whether by design or by accident).

[liam_laddie]

67. exit polling

Iceburg & others - I spoke with the Dir. of Elections in Cuyahoga on 3/23 and e-mailed him on 3/24 listing what NEP info I (we) need. I hope to hear back by Tues/Wed. He sounds very willing to help (a Dem) - fingers crossed.

Also spoke with and had e-mail reply from ranking Dem in Franklin. He's not sure they'll find the info (no secretary since 9/04); he knows there was exit-polling, maybe in a few weeks when new sec'y. starts they can hunt down the letter.

Also spoke with the Dem Deputy Dir. in Lucas (Toledo) on 3/23
and e-mailed him on 3/24. I hope for answer by Wed.

I'm calling my friendly Dem Dep Dir here on Monday, see if
I can come in ASAP to hand recount Anderson JJ, Cincy 4-M,
Sharonville 4-C. And compare to the registered sign-ins, too.

I asked this in another post or thread (I think.) Is it significant that
in Ham Cty polled precincts, six of the eight precincts bush won had turnouts of 82, 83, 84, 85, 87, and 87%? These seem very high. The two other bush had 70 and 72%. Turnouts in the four Kerry wins were 64, 66, 71 and 79%. Just curious...
Happy Easter or whatever!

[kiwi_expat]

70. Those 6 HC turnouts do sound very high.

The recounts will tell us if that is significant. :-)

Thanks for your initiative and perseverance, Liam.

[KaliTracy]

72. the stats in Hamilton County do seem high considering they OverTurned

Article XII (originally passed in 1993) to replace the discriminatory language against gays and lesbians.

I always found it odd that this was overturned, yet Banning Gay Marriage was so popular.

IF there was a High Percentage of * votes in Hamilton County, wounldn't one think that Issue 3 would have not been passed? Or could the language just have confused the people? Though, there was a LOT of publicity on this -- the Citizens for Community Values (who originally pushed for the Article XII) were vocal, but those who wanted to repeal Artcle XII did a lot of canvassing (in other words, the Issue wasn't just put on the ballot -- there was some effort to educate people on the issue).

From the League of Woman Voters
Background: The city charter serves as the "constitution" of the City. Article XII of the charter was approved by voters in 1993 to strike down part of a 1992 Human Rights Ordinance that prohibited discrimination based on sexual orientation. Article XII states:

The City of Cincinnati and its various Boards and Commissions may not enact, adopt, enforce or administer any ordinance, regulation, rule or policy which provides that homosexual, lesbian, or bisexual orientation, status, conduct, or relationship constitutes, entitled, or otherwise provides a person with the basis to have any claim of minority or protected status, quota preference or other preferential treatment. This provision of the City Charter shall in all respects be self-executing. Any ordinance, regulation, rule or policy enacted before this amendment is adopted that violates the foregoing prohibition shall be null and void and of no force or effect.

Issue 3 would delete this language from the charter.

Those for the repeal say: In Cincinnati it is legal to deny employment, housing or services because a person is gay. Article XII denies gay people basic legal rights to petition government: the repeal would enable gays and lesbians to seek protection from discrimination in the same way that other citizens can. Cincinnati is the only US city where a law specifically denies one group of people protection against discrimination. Article XII gives Cincinnati a reputation for intolerance that negatively impacts our economy. ( http://www.citizenstorestorefairness.org/ )

Those against the repeal say: Sexual behavior is not in the same category as non-behavioral characteristics such as skin color. While discrimination based on immutable characteristics that have no bearing on behavior or morals is wrong, personal discrimination based on legitimate values is a virtue and a right. Article XII prevents City Council from passing any ordinances granting special rights based on sexual orientation such as "hate crimes" laws, "human rights" ordinances, or "domestic partner" benefits. Claims of discrimination based on sexual orientation are greatly exaggerated. ( http:/www.ccv.org/Special_Rights_Legislation.htm )

***
Actual Ballot Question

To repeal Article XII of the Charter of the City of Cincinnati. Be it resolved by the people of Cincinnati that Article XII of the Charter of the City be repealed. This amendment to the City Charter shall in all respects be self-executing. Article XII shall be null and void and of no force and effect. SHALL ARTICLE XII BE REPEALED?

YES

NO

[KaliTracy]

73. wanted to add this --Issue 3 passed 53.75% to 46.75% (see above)

Issue 3. Proposed Charter Amendment -- City of Cincinnati (Repeal Article XII - A majority affirmative vote is necessary for passage)

68,062 / 53.75% Yes votes ......

58,555 / 46.25% No votes

To repeal Article XII of the Charter of the City of Cincinnati. Be it resolved by the people of Cincinnati that Article XII of the Charter of the City be repealed. This amendment to the City Charter shall in all respects be self-executing. Article XII shall be null and void and of no force and effect. SHALL ARTICLE XII BE REPEALED?
YES

NO

[kiwi_expat]

69. Hi Iceburg

You really don't need to wait for the Cuyahoga NEP precincts to be identified. You could do a citizen's manual recount in the precinct you think has the highest probability of having been mis-tabulated.

We will be starting an Ohio Citizens' Recount thread, shortly, where we can discuss the nuts and bolts of doing a recount.

Let's wait until Liam hears back from his Cuyahoga BoE contact, then you might discuss the possibility of a recount with that contact.

Iceburg, could you do Liam and me a big favour, please? We need someone who has a lot of posts, as you do, to help us exchange e-mail addresses with each other. Minivis did this for Blue22 and me, but I suspect he is on holiday at the moment. Please try e-mailing and/or PMing Liam and me, to see if it is possible. Thanks!!

Cheers
kiwi_expat

[Dark]

74. Cheviot (near Hamilton, OH) Precinct 2-C. No exit poll. I voted at 8 am.nt

[KaliTracy]

75. Issue 3 Passed in Hamilton County 53.75% to 46.25% -- as opposed to the

Gay Marriage Ban. I always found it odd that this was overturned, yet Banning Gay Marriage was so popular.

If there was a High Percentage of * votes in Hamilton County, wouldn't one think that Issue 3 would have not been passed? Or could the language just have confused the people? Though, there was a LOT of publicity on this -- the Citizens for Community Values (who originally pushed for the Article XII) were vocal, but those who wanted to repeal Artcle XII did a lot of canvassing (in other words, the Issue wasn't just put on the ballot -- there was some effort to educate people on the issue). Though -- Cincinnati had been boycotted from a lot of convention groups, businesses, etc. because of this charter -- so people could have repealed it to get rid of the boycott. It was a pretty big margin, though....


Issue 3. Proposed Charter Amendment -- City of Cincinnati (Repeal Article XII - A majority affirmative vote is necessary for passage)

68,062 / 53.75% Yes votes ......

58,555 / 46.25% No votes

To repeal Article XII of the Charter of the City of Cincinnati. Be it resolved by the people of Cincinnati that Article XII of the Charter of the City be repealed. This amendment to the City Charter shall in all respects be self-executing. Article XII shall be null and void and of no force and effect. SHALL ARTICLE XII BE REPEALED?

YES

NO

***
Article XII (originally passed in 1993) to replace the discriminatory language against gays and lesbians.

From the League of Woman Voters
Background: The city charter serves as the "constitution" of the City. Article XII of the charter was approved by voters in 1993 to strike down part of a 1992 Human Rights Ordinance that prohibited discrimination based on sexual orientation. Article XII states:

The City of Cincinnati and its various Boards and Commissions may not enact, adopt, enforce or administer any ordinance, regulation, rule or policy which provides that homosexual, lesbian, or bisexual orientation, status, conduct, or relationship constitutes, entitled, or otherwise provides a person with the basis to have any claim of minority or protected status, quota preference or other preferential treatment. This provision of the City Charter shall in all respects be self-executing. Any ordinance, regulation, rule or policy enacted before this amendment is adopted that violates the foregoing prohibition shall be null and void and of no force or effect.

Issue 3 would delete this language from the charter.

Those for the repeal say: In Cincinnati it is legal to deny employment, housing or services because a person is gay. Article XII denies gay people basic legal rights to petition government: the repeal would enable gays and lesbians to seek protection from discrimination in the same way that other citizens can. Cincinnati is the only US city where a law specifically denies one group of people protection against discrimination. Article XII gives Cincinnati a reputation for intolerance that negatively impacts our economy. ( http://www.citizenstorestorefairness.org / )

Those against the repeal say: Sexual behavior is not in the same category as non-behavioral characteristics such as skin color. While discrimination based on immutable characteristics that have no bearing on behavior or morals is wrong, personal discrimination based on legitimate values is a virtue and a right. Article XII prevents City Council from passing any ordinances granting special rights based on sexual orientation such as "hate crimes" laws, "human rights" ordinances, or "domestic partner" benefits. Claims of discrimination based on sexual orientation are greatly exaggerated. ( http:/www.ccv.org/Special_Rights_Legislation.htm )



(bumped up from Posts 72/73)

[kiwi_expat]

76. We should check precincts' totals on both Issue 3 & the Gay MB

Thanks for bringing this up, KaliTracy. One would certainly expect that precincts with a heavy Bush win would also have had heavy voting for the Gay Marriage Ban. However, as I think you are suggesting, the Gay Marriage Ban votes might have also been pumped up by fraud.

Maybe the vote on Issue 3 is a better control, to help identify precincts where a heavy Bush vote is most suspicious.

[liam_laddie]

77. Issues 1 & 3 vote totals

Sorry about the sprdsht coming out like it does, but maybe
this is of use.
BTW, am seeing BofE Tues morn.; Ohio Sunshine Law allows free "inspection" of many public records (ballots fit definition)
but unsure whether I can count or even handle them. I will try
to count signatures on the voter sign-in logs (four precincts.)
No word from other counties yet on exit-polled precincts...
=====================
No. Ident / Total Reg / Ballots / %Turnout / Bush - Kerry / OH#1 Yes - No / CIN#3 Yes - No
413 CINCINNATI 4-M / 640 / 532 / 83.13% / 312 - 211/ 277 - 267 / 238 - 267
804 CINCINNATI 8-D / 732 / 518 / 70.77% / 27 - 471 / 218 - 221 / 218 - 248
1510 CINCINNATI 15-J / 524 / 412 / 78.63% / 103 - 302 / 261 - 112 / 120 - 277
2205 CINCINNATI 22-E / 684 / 448 / 65.50% / 65 - 373 / 212 - 181 / 147 - 266
3403 HARRISON C / 464 / 324 / 69.83% / 209 - 108 / 204 - 100
3803 MADEIRA C / 719 / 604 / 84.01% / 413 - 181 / 317 - 261
6102 FAIRFAX B / 591 / 456 / 71.57% / 279 - 169 / 231 - 172
4943 SHARONVILLE 4-C / 577 / 474 / 82.15% / 321 - 150 / 293 - 158
5636 ANDERSON JJ / 557 / 483 / 86.71% / 344 - 131 / 288 - 175
6804 EVENDALE D / 384 / 328 / 85.42% / 235 - 89 / 201 - 112
7903 LOCKLAND C / 507 / 325 / 63.91% / 144 - 165 / 168 - 132
8307 MIAMI TWP G / 565 / 492 / 87.08% / 385 - 98 / 340 - 131

[liam_laddie]

78. Issue 1 & 3

To clarify - Issue 1 (ban gay marriage, etc.) is Ohio (all 12 precincts)
Issue 3 (repeal anti-gay language) is Cincinnati only.
(4 precincts)

[kiwi_expat]

79. See recount discussions on "Action on this board is dwindling" thread....

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=349433&mesg_id=349433

Liam, after you go to the HC BofE, it would be good if you could share your experiences on the above thread, as well as here. (Just use a link to your comments here, if you like.) A new Ohio citizen-based recounts thread will be starting up, shortly.

Thanks for the Issues 1 & 3 spreadsheet! The Cincinnati votes are fascinating. I am totally amazed that the Gay Marriage Ban issue would win in heavy Kerry precincts - and by bigger %s than in the heavy Bush CINCINNATI 4-M. But at least the voters in those 4 Cincinnati precincts were consistent in voting for Issue 1 and against issue 3 - although by different margins.

Cheers
kiwi_expat

p.s. I am still working on getting my e-mail address to you.

[kiwi_expat]

80. Liam, I hope that things went well at the BofE.

I will be on holiday for a week.

All the best,
kiwi_expat

[KaliTracy]

86. Hi all... back from a little break. Liam I was a little confused when

I added up the numbers and didn't get anywhere near 100,000 votes for Issue 3 (the Cincinnati Issue repealing the discrimitory language).

Maybe I'm missing something that you posted earlier...

Total votes for all the precincts here 5,396

for the 4 Cinci #3 precincts posted here 1,910

Cinci #3
Yes= 723 (37.8%)
No= 1058 (55.3%)



Did I miss something from the Ohio site?

Issue 3. Proposed Charter Amendment -- City of Cincinnati (Repeal Article XII - A majority affirmative vote is necessary for passage)

68,062 / 53.75% Yes votes ......

58,555 / 46.25% No votes

[liam_laddie]

87. Cincy #3 totals?

Hi, Kali - I looked through my posts and can't find the two lines
below marked** Where did these originate? Post&date?
------------------------------------
"Maybe I'm missing something that you posted earlier...
**Total votes for all the precincts here 5,396
**for the 4 Cinci #3 precincts posted here 1,910"
------------------------------------
Discovered some transposing errors in the table posted 3/28
at 11:58pm...my bad! Bleary eyes and spreadsheets no good!
The column headers were outta sync, so totals for the four Cincy precincts were all screwy. These have been double-checked. The top-to-bottom precinct order is the same as original post.

Sorry that the website software keeps F**king this up!!! The
four-result col. is Cin#3, twelve-result is OH#1. Grrrrrr!
Obviously the totals at bottom are reversed from correct
position, too...WTF?

Yes No Yes No
277 183 238 267
218 221 218 248
261 112 120 277
212 181 147 266
204 100
317 261
231 172
293 158
288 175
201 112
168 132
340 131
(58%) 968 (42%) 697 (55%)2765 (45%)2299 TOTALS

I added up Y/N votes for issue #3 in the four NEP-polled precincts in Cincy. Yes - 968 No - 697 Combined total - 1665
Your all-precinct totals for #3 in Cincy are correct.

Hope this clears things up a little.

[KaliTracy]

88. the ** lines are my totals from the numbers you posted in post #77

in post #78 you state that Issue #1 is all 12 precincts and Issue #3 is 4 precincts.

But -- the totals for Issue 3 were over 60,000 for and over 50,000 against.

but I might have missed something you posted explaining this elsewhere...

[liam_laddie]

89. clearing up

Kali - I was totaling votes only in the NEP-polled precincts.
My post(s) may not have been clear. I think we're both in Cincy, too bad I (we?) can't PM the entire team yet. I wrote to skinner; he understood our predicament, but can't bend the rules; it was a very decent note. So we wait!

[KaliTracy]

90. oops! sorry for the confusion! n/t

[kiwi_expat]

119. Would anyone like to contact the BofE in Ohio's Summit County....

... and try to get the precinct names for the NEP exit polls in that county? Liam_laddie has found it is very helpful to contact one of the Democrats on the Board.

Summit County is important because it has two precincts near the top of blue22's priority list (based on NEP raw-final %Bush increase):

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_mesg&forum=203&topic_id=329749&mesg_id=343228&page=


(I have also posted this message on the "Does anyone know which precincts were in the exit poll for any states?" thread.)

* * *

Contacting a BofE involves some follow-up phone calls. We don't want poor Liam to contact all 24 exit-poll counties in the state. :-/