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Edited on Wed Feb-22-06 09:18 AM by Bragi
I think Canada's centre-left can no longer afford to split its vote between the Liberal, NDP and Green parties for one, big compelling reason: if the centre left doesn’t unite, then I believe the right wing will take complete control of Canada, and will reshape this country in profound ways that will not reflect the centre-left views of the majority of Canadians.
As some who follow this discussion group may know, I have been making (and testing) the above proposition here for a few weeks now. During the debate that has ensued, I have been quite surprised to discover that the above premise is almost violently rejected by many here who identify themselves as being politically left of centre.
According to them, Canada’s distinctive history, and our different demographics, means that – unlike our neighbours to the south – we are somewhat immune to a takeover by the hard right. Because of this, their argument goes, there is no need for the centre left to panic over the situation, and it’s safe to cling to our old political choices on the long march to the New Jerusalem.
Personally, I reject this assumption, and I’m alarmed at the political complacency it fosters. Here’s why:
First of all, Steven Harper is *already* in power, and he is an extreme right winger. Yes, he only has a minority right now, but despite this, he is nonetheless actively pursuing a quite distinctly hard right agenda. For example:
- he is taking steps to reduce government presence in the lives of citizens (e.g. tax cuts instead of child care);
- he is setting the stage for two-tier medicine (supporting privatized delivery is the start of this);
- he is beginning to politicize the judicial selection process, and to move on some less-divisive right wing law and order issues (hearings for Supreme Court justices, brining in minimum sentences, ect.);
- he is shifting Canada’s foreign policy towards the US neocon agenda (deep anti-Palestinianism, support for US militarism abroad, etc)
It is predictable that mainstream media are missing all this, but I am surprised to find that so many on the left persist in thinking that Harper is a moderate, and not a hardline right-winger, largely because he has not moved on any of the more divisive social conservative “moral issues” such as same-sex marriage, and abortion rights.
In my view, what this shows is that many Canadian leftists don’t understand that, while conservatives and social conservatives usually run in the same pack, they are not synonymous.
Harper is a good example. If you read the two biographies out on him, you will find that while he is driven by deeply conservative views on economic, social and foreign policy, he is largely ambivalent about socon issues like same sex and abortion rights. However, while these aren't the issues that make him run, he knows quite well that a crucial, and highly active, part of his political base does care deeply about these things, and wants results.
And he has made a deal with them. The deal is that they have to accept that while he can’t help them much with their divisive issues now, and still get the majority he seeks in the next election, that he will get them what they want once he has a majority. He has, through the deep links between the evangelical Christian churches and the CPC, assured them that they will get their issues dealt with, through *free* votes in the House, once he gets a majority. They just have to shut up in the meantime, and vote right next time.
For those on the left who think that Canadians will never accept policies that reflect the views of the socons on these issues, I suggest you have a hard look at opinion polls. What you will find is that margins in Canada between those who support and don't support liberal views on same sex, right to choose, etc. are actually not that wide. With an effective campaign, the socons could win.
The other key factor on how these issues may play out is that not many non-socons in Canada actually care passionately about things like same-sex marriage, one way or the other. Consequently, given a majority, I think Harper would be able to give the socons what they want without even breaking into much of a political sweat, let alone facing insurrection in the streets.
As for religion in Canada, the complacent left is correct that it isn't politically the force it is in the US. However, some 60 per cent of Canadians say religion is an important part of their lives, and that it provides them with moral direction. That is not a small chunk of electoral change. And if you look at the denominations that are growing in Canada, well, it sure isn't the good old United Church.
So the situation is that while many on the left assure themselves that Harper is not a serious threat, Harper is already in power, already implementing his right wing economic, social policy and foreign policy views, and doing it in a manner that is slow and careful, in a way that won’t scare people, in a way that creates the conditions needed for him to win a majority.
Personally, I believe Harper will continue in this manner during his minority period, and that if/when he wins his majority, he will have four years in which he can then profoundly reshape this country ways that reflect his deep, right wing views. And the centre left majority in Canada won’t be able to do squat to stop him.
This why, for me, sitting back thinking that "it can't happen here" is just, as the old saying goes, "whistling past the graveyard". It's why I think it is urgent and necessary for the centre left to get its act together now, before the next election, and why I think we no longer have the luxury of splitting our vote between the Libs, the NDP and the Green Party.
I don't claim to have all the answers to how we can best get our act together, nor do I think it will be simple or easy, but I do believe that the first step is to realize that we have to do it, and to shake off the complacency about Harper that now seems to grip the Canadian left.
- B
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