Is Kerry really losing this bad?

[Fescue4u]

Or at all?

http://www.electoral-vote.com/

Its seems like most of the focus has been on the popular vote which is pretty close, but due to electoral college skewing, Kerry might be losing big time. 233 vs 311 E. College votes.

Is this site credible?

[cspiguy]

1. they keep saying * is ahead in Penn, Ohio, Wis, Minn, NJ

if any of this is true, Kerry's got some splaining to do. It may all be part of the VRWC and JFK is way ahead, really.

[billbuckhead]

7. THEY DON'T POLL PEOPLE WITH CELL PHONES

They use likely voter models with way more RepuKKKes than Dems. The polls are B.S.

Remember how far off the polls were 2000.

[GingerSnaps]

16. Most poor people can't afford a cell phone

How do they poll them?

[partygirl]

30. I have been polled on

my cell-phone. Rassmussen.

:shrug:

They do the numbers randomly, and they do it so that cells get polled to. In fact, I get polled lots cause I have a Virgin Mobile phone and they are "in" on a lot of polling stuff. It is the BEST phone. Expensive to use, but the parents are paying so it is all good.

[joefree1]

2. Nope, not according to the Wall Street Journal

Bush's Convention Bounce Vanishes as Race Tightens


http://online.wsj.com/public/article/0,,SB1095268724874...
. . .

Immediately after the Republican convention in New York, several polls showed Mr. Bush jumping ahead of Mr. Kerry with a clear lead of between six and 11 percentage points. There's no such 'convention bounce' for the president in the latest poll by Harris.

The Harris poll, conducted by telephone Sept. 9-13, shows Sen. Kerry leading Mr. Bush 48% to 47% among likely voters nationwide. The poll also found that a slender 51% to 45% majority doesn't believe that Mr. Bush deserves to be re-elected.

The previous poll in which likely U.S. voters were asked which candidate they preferred showed Messrs. Kerry and Bush tied 47% to 47%. That survey was conducted before the Republican National Convention in New York City, which ended earlier this month. An earlier poll in June indicated a Bush lead over Mr. Kerry of 10 percentage points, at 51% to 41%.

The latest poll was conducted within the U. S. among a nationwide cross section of 1,018 adults. It has a margin of error of +/-3 percentage points.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=102&topic_id=830883


Download the free poster/bumper art here:
http://ediablo.com/eDiabloGallery.html

[Rose Siding]

12. That poll doesn't reflect the electoral college totals

The Harris poll is for calculating the popular vote (which can be won without winning the presidency) It's as helpful as momentum can be, but the tug of war in the battleground states is reflected in the electoral vote indicator and Kerry's lost some important ground there- not that it can't be recovered, of course.

[phillybri]

3. Yes and no...

The site only shows the very last poll that was released.

[nickinSTL]

4. since when is Ohio 'strong Bush'?

And is Wisconsin really leaning Bush?

I don't think all these are accurate...

Those are the ones that stick out to me on a brief look.

[Fescue4u]

10. Exactly

I thought Ohio was either a dead tie or slightly Bush.

Regardless, I'ver never heard it described as strong bush.

[Clinton Crusader]

22. NY! Sweet Moses! Just cant BE! nt

:kick:

[robbedvoter]

24. That's when I KNOW polls are BS. Can't speak for the rest of the country

but NY is NYC - and NYC will come and vote en masse this time. It will be the highest percentage against W in the country. Can you say 9/11?

[liberalpragmatist]

5. The site's pretty credible. The result is due to a lag in state polls

Now, I wouldn't take that margin to be exact - using exclusively the results from a single polling outfit would probably be more precise, but it does give a good view of who's winning what states currently and what the trends are.

If you remember, even when Bush was supposedly 11 points ahead, Kerry was ahead in the EC, or just narrowly behind. The state poll results tend to lag behind the national polls. In one or two weeks, this thing will be back to earth and Kerry's numbers will be higher.

Also, read the site owner's analysis. He usually points out that some of the results are outliers - he pointed out that the Ohio poll results probably are outliers - it's unlikely Bush is ahead by that much, but he posts the latest results, so it goes in anyway.

UPDATE: I'd be careful with some of these polls - Strategic Vision is a Republican pollster. On the other hand, the Illinois result (narrow Kerry lead) and especially New Jersey result (49-45 Bush) are troubling, especially because SUSA is independent and does tend to be quite reliable. Hopefully it's just an outlier, but we'll see.

[nadinbrzezinski]

6. It is swingging back

remember the only poll that matters is on November 2nd,a nd we have to keep fighting, Polls are a picture in time and there is some evidence polls are being manipulated in not so obvious ways.

For instance, if you talk of likely voters instead of registered voters, likely are more finicky and less likely to actually show up than registered voters.

It is also how the questions are phrased and these polls are not taking into account ANY newly registered voter or voters who have not voted in more than two cycles.

Hope this helps....

Oh and yes, plan for the wost but do work for the best

[rockymountaindem]

8. It's kind of credible.

There are a few flaws...

1. Even if a candidate is ahead, but only within the margin of error, they give the electoral votes of that state to that candidate. For example, yesterday Bush had a 1 point lead in Florida, which is hardly any lead to speak of and may not even be a lead at all. However, they gave Florida's 25 votes to Bush.

2. The site uses only the most recent poll, not an average of recent polls. Nor to they evaluate the credibility of polls. We all know that polls conducted by local newspapers and other small groups are not as reliable as Zogby, ARG etc. However, the site just uses those the second they come out, and often remove more credible polls that are only a couple of days old.

[still_one]

9. There are still a lot of undecideds, believe it or not

Also, some of those states have bush up by 1 or 2%

We are still in this game

[rocktivity]

11. Of course not

The polls are now being used as a weapon to demoralize us. Why else would they start fluctuating the second the AWOL story grows legs?

:headbang:
rocknation

[TheFarseer]

13. I swear JK ws leading earlier this week on that site

He's not losing New Jersey. PA I think we're about 80% to win. Ohio I think is 60/40 bush. Wisconsin I think we're about 70/30 to win. Florida is anyone's guess. you know, for whatever my opinion is worth.

[Kazak]

15. He was...

I've seen this site fluctuate wildly over the past few weeks...

:shrug:

[babylonsister]

19. On 9/11 this site recorded

273 for Kerry, 233 for Bush;9/12-269/233; 9/14-238/291; 9/15-238/296
This site does swing a lot which is why I've taken to writing the figures down.

[WilliamPitt]

14. No

[WI_DEM]

17. No

most of those states they give Bush are in actuality toss up's and will swing back towards Kerry as the election gets closer.

[mr_du04]

18. ok repeat after me, ready?

Kerry is going to win, Bush is going to lose.

[michigandem2]

20. SURPRISE....

Kerry will win in November..no matter who they tell us is ahead...KERRY will come out the winner...he has been doing BEAUTFULLY the last couple days...staying on message and tearing * a new one...these polls will do nothing but energize US and make them feel secure so some will stay home...

[kennetha]

21. Not as bad as it seems

This site awards even states within the margin of error -- so states that could go either way -- to the candidate who is currently ahead, no matter the margin. So Bush is just 2 pts ahead according to the latest ABC poll. But that's gotta be within the MOE. This means the state is up for grabs. not that bush has it won, not by any means. If this holds, it's all about TURNOUT. Period. It's the ground war that will matter in any such state.

Even if you look at it this way. If contrary to this site's current "prediction" Kerry takes, NJ (15) , Pennsylvania (21), Nevada (5) or ME (4) and Missouri (11) (all of which are either barely Bush or "exactly tied") and holds onto all the States it assigns to Kerry, then Kerry can win without taking either Florida or Ohio.

If he takes BOTH NV and ME -- which seems really possible -- and just holds on to the rest that he is assigned, then he can win just by taking Pennsylvania and either Missouri or NJ, without having to take both.

IF Kerry takes Pennsylvania and Florida -- the hurricanes are, I think, getting in the way of his doing this because they are freezing the race -- then Bush is essentially cooked. He can have NJ and Ohio and all the "barely bush" states on this map and he can't win.

One thing I think these electoral counts all underestimate is that wherever Bush is under 50% it seems to me that he is very likely to lose.

Anyway, that's my optimist take on this all.

[Teaser]

23. Repeat after me:

State polls trail national polls.

If Kerry is leading in the national polls, it will take a week or 2 for that lead to percolate into state polls.

Now class, repeat it again...

[Nederland]

26. Where did you read this? (nt)

[Teaser]

29. Everywhere.

It's pretty common knowledge amongst public opinion researchers.

Just look at last week. Fairly large Bush leads, but Kerry still lead the electoral vote. This week, Bush lead slowly eroding, but a flip in who leads!

You see it all the time. Happened after the Dem convention too.

[sonicx]

25. please remember that this site...

takes the newest poll no matter what the quality. there's probably a lot of gallup in there.

[SidDithers]

27. That site uses the most recent polls...

including ones from Strategic Vision, and Survey USA, two polling firms with results which tend (R). Check which "battleground" states listed have their EV's portioned based on Strategic Vision or Survey USA polls.

Sid

[NoBorders]

28. Nope - most people are disatisified with the direction

of the Bushco, and Kerry has plenty of opportunity to capitalize on that...

That site swings based on small lead changes in latest polls.

And check this out if you hvaen't already, though I'm sure you have...

http://www.emergingdemocraticmajorityweblog.com/donkeyrising/

[bobbyboucher]

31. Dumb post, sorry to say,

but it makes you look like a intermingler. You should have worded it better. Just being honest.