|
1. Obama will have a higher percentage of votes in a lot of southern state with a high % of African Americans, but not high enough to put him over the top in those states (ie MS, LA, AL, & SC)
2. McCain's being portrayed by the press as a Maverick/Moderate will help him in VA, OH, PA, MI, WS, and IA.
3. McCains's support for immigration reform will also help him with Hispanics in NM, NV, and FL.
I don't think all three will happen. I think this one will be close either way.
The first point seems very likely. I really don't Obama flipping any southern states outside VA. The third is also very likely with McCain probably winning FL and NV, but losing NM.
That brings us to point #2: If McCain picks Tom Ridge as his VP, that could help him win PA. If that happens, McCain just needs wins OH, MO, and VA (very possible)to win while losing NM, MI, WS, NM, and NV.
This one is WAY out there, but I thought I'd mention it, since when taken with some of McCain's past statements, it seemed to be possible. McCain might take Chris Cox as his VP to make a run at California. McCain is currently 9 points behind and if he adds Cox that might put the state in play. If McCain wins California, he can lose VA, OH, PA, NM, NV, MI, WS, NH, IA, CO, and IN and still win 271-267.
|