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Less than 50 to go to the nomination!!!

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stratomagi Donating Member (811 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-25-08 10:50 PM
Original message
Less than 50 to go to the nomination!!!
With 3 new add-on SD's from Hawaii Barack Obama has 49 delegates left to go before he wins the nomination!

Todays SD's are

DNC Brian Schatz (HI)
DNC Kari Luna (HI)
James Burns (HI)

all for Obama!

http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/01/superdelegate-endorsement-notes.html

:woohoo::applause:
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stratomagi Donating Member (811 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-25-08 10:57 PM
Response to Original message
1. I figured this would be slightly more exciting news.
:shrug:
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thewiseguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-25-08 10:59 PM
Response to Reply #1
4. HOOOOOOOOOOOOORAY!
:bounce: :bounce: :woohoo: :woohoo: :applause: :applause: :headbang: :headbang:
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skooooo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-25-08 10:58 PM
Response to Original message
2. I was thinking about the Iowa win today...

Waking up the morning after and everyone on the news was amazed. After New Hampshire and Super Tuesday, I was kind of discouraged that he wouldn't win. And now here we are...

CAN YOU BELIEVE IT??????
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stratomagi Donating Member (811 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-25-08 11:01 PM
Response to Reply #2
5. I'm waiting till it gets down to 43 delegates left.
That would mean getting a 50/50 split out of the remaining 86 pledged delegates would get him the nom...so that means only 6 superdelegates to go and this thing is in the bag.

But yeah, I'm so happy we're reaching the end and with Obama as our nominee.
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rocktivity Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-25-08 11:57 PM
Response to Reply #2
11. I called Obama's NH loss a moral victory because it was by less than three points
and predicted it would prove to his base that he wasn't a fluke and that the audacity of hope really worked.

:headbang:
rocnation
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Stephanie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-25-08 10:59 PM
Response to Original message
3. I think Tuesday will be a big SD day.
I think many of them will see the wisdom of getting her off the stage ASAP.
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stratomagi Donating Member (811 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-25-08 11:02 PM
Response to Reply #3
6. We need at least 6 more to clinch with a 50/50 split of the remaining pledged
delegates, I think you're right and it will be even more than that and MT and SD will put him over the top!
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mckeown1128 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 12:12 AM
Response to Reply #6
13. If Obama get's ten supers by June 3rd...
He will (by my calc.) get enough to clinch the nom when SD and MT vote... It will be a big success of a day.
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AtomicKitten Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-25-08 11:02 PM
Response to Original message
7. Slowly but surely ....
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yodermon Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-25-08 11:15 PM
Response to Original message
8. Just thought of something:is he timing the SD "trickle" such that
by June 3 it will be his *pledged* delegate accumulation on *that day* that puts him over the top?
E.g. symbolically he's not using the Supers to "game" the system and clinch it before the last primary?
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housewolf Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-25-08 11:22 PM
Response to Original message
9. Not to rain on your parade... but 49 only wiorks if FL & MI aren't counted...
We won't know the actual number needed to win the nomination until FL & MI is settled next week.

49 is a milestone, but it only holds if the DNC Rules Committee denies FL & MI.

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Triana Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-25-08 11:49 PM
Response to Reply #9
10. Yep. The goalposts will change once again when Hillary's RBC meets on the 31st. n/t
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Gore1FL Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-26-08 12:04 AM
Response to Reply #9
12. Worst case scenario
FL is seated as is will All delegates, Hillary gets MI delegates, but none of the 55 uncommitted go to Obama:

2209-2025 = 184
184 + 49 = 233


Obama picks up 69 Pledged Delegates from FL
Obama picks up 5 Super Delegates from FL
Obama picks up 5 Super Delegates from MI

79 delegates total pickup.

233-79 = 154

There would still be the original 287 remaining delegates plus 55 extra from MI, plus 28 uncommited SDs for a total of 370

154/370 = 42% he would need.

under the current accepted rules he needs 49/287 = 17%


Adding MI and FL in a "worst case scenario" for him (which simply will not happen) He still is beating her by substantial margins.
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