... that almost all remaining elected supers will endorse Senator Obama once he reaches the halfway mark of pledged delegates (Pelosi Club), somewhere around May 20. But it's been said the uglier the race gets, the sooner some will endorse to help curb the ugliness.
Mr. Super's take on where undeclared supers stand
If anybody knows superdelegates it's Mr. Super. In his latest post he gives a rundown of where he thinks the remaining superdelegates are in their decision.
Governors (7): All Pelosi Club members, though Kentucky's Steve Beshear could conceivably endorse Senator Clinton, and North Carolina's Mike Easley could endorse Senator Obama.
US Senators (19): As colleagues in the Senate, it's feasible that all could be Pelosi Club members.
Undeclared House Freshmen (18): All Pelosi Club. there 40 freshmen in the class of 2006, the 18 who have not endorsed look to be facing tough re-elects and don't want to risk splitting their base by picking a side. It's not what they were elected to do.
House members (52): Of the remaining House members, most are Pelosi Club. There are a few who may endorse prior to their state's primary, that's a total of nine members when you take out the Freshmen who were referenced above.
DNC Members (126): Virtually all up for grabs, save for a few Party luminaries.
I honestly believe that the peacemakers in all of this could be Jimmy Carter, who though he was not a popular president has since become the most popular ex-president, and the award-winning and Al Gore.
Now our definition of Pelosi Club is a superdelegate that commits to voting for the delegate winner. Not sure if Mr. Super is including the ones that say they'll vote for the leader of the Popular Vote. Hopefully he'll drop in and let us know.
Update: Mr. Super has confirmed that, like us, he considers the Pelosi Club going for the leader of the pledged delegates.
Posted by Matt at 4:32
http://demconwatch.blogspot.com/2008/04/mr-supers-take-on-where-undeclared.html:hi: