Chuck Todd, is it surprising that Obama is getting only 10% of the white vote in SC in your poll?

[flpoljunkie]

This is the very red state of South Carolina we are talking about here--not Iowa, and not New Hampshire!

Why not mention that native son John Edwards is now polling ahead of Hillary Clinton with white voters in South Carolina by a margin of 40% to 36%. Isn't that worth mentioning, that Edwards is surging with white voters in his home state?

[KennedyGuy]

1. well..can you do "democrat for a day" in Sc like Iowa and nevada?

[flpoljunkie]

2. I don't get your drift here, KennedyGuy.

[KennedyGuy]

4. My drift is simple if you have been paying attention

In Iowa and Nevada..Obama did very well among Indies and Republicans who could register to be "Dem for a Day". This gave him a large per centage of white voters and indies..
I don't think you can do this in SC..hence the much lower white vote.

[hiaasenrocks]

6. That's incorrect.

It's an open primary. Any white voter could have decided long ago that they'd vote in the Dem primary.

[sunonmars]

8. you are correct

As long as they didnt vote in last weeks Rep primary. They can vote in this one as long as they are registered to vote. So I would not be surprised to see a heft repug vote tonight and thats not good news.

[hiaasenrocks]

9. I doubt that.

The Repubs had record turnout last Saturday. That's not to say that NO Repub will vote today, but it works against the idea that there will be enough of them today to make a difference.

[balantz]

18. I had read there was low Rebub. turnout last week.

[sunonmars]

20. There was and they can vote in this weeks

So i would expect some of them to come vote and interfere.

[nancyharris]

16. The logic of your argument

is that white SC Democrats will not vote for an African American but white Iowan and New Hampshire Independents and Liberal Republicans will. I reject that notion completely.

[TheDeathadder]

11. his point is....

Repubs and Indys vote for Obama in Democratic Primaries...Indys who if they didn't vote for Obama would vote for McCain. I'm so glad I live in a state where only Dems can vote in a Dem Primary.

[sunonmars]

5. well a lot of republicans sat out their primary last week and can vote in this one

Now I suspect, with it being South Carolina, they aint got a confederate flag up for nothing, that they may vote in this Dem primary but do they want to throw a wrench in Obama's or Hillary's plan.

Its no coincidence, Edwards polling heavy votes amongst whites and i also read that independents have broken towards Hillary and Edwards. So what the hell does this all mean.

Are the republicans who didnt vote last week going to stick the knife someone today, its entirely possible.

[zanne]

3. God, I hope that's not true...

Not only because I'm supporting Barack Obama. I like to think that racism is dying out, period.

[Sarah Ibarruri]

10. It isn't. My sister adopted black children. Her life has changed.....

... when she's with the kids out in public, she gets "looks" from white people.. where white people previously held open doors for her, now they don't, where she previously had an easy time getting help at stores, now she doesn't, etc. etc. etc. My entire family got a dose of what it's like to be black in the U.S. when my sister decided to adopt this way. One good thing has developed from it: I now have a zero-tolerance policy towards white racists, so these children have made me strong and tough!

[hiaasenrocks]

7. And no one had made race an issue during the Iowa and NH voting.

So there's that...

[senseandsensibility]

12. If Obama is polling poorly with whites because South Carolina

is a red state, what does that portend for him in other southern red states? We need to win some southern states in the fall. Obama is my second choice, and I think it's a tragedy that race has been injected into this campaign in this way and by OUR side.

[sunonmars]

13. CNN just threw the first dagger at Obama

Headline : Obama's legitimacy on line in South Carolina

I knew it, this is how they are going to play this tonight.

We were warned

[senseandsensibility]

14. Oops

I'm an idiot. Was trying to post this in another thread.

[sunonmars]

15. looks like put up or shut up to me.

[Samantha]

17. There's another way to look at this

Didn't I hear about 53% of the vote is African-American in South Carolina? If that is true, only 47% of the remaining base is not. I am not sure what percentage of that 47% is literally pale-faces, is there a percentage for Latinos, for instance? And what percentage remains undecided until the last moment?

But for purposes of this discussion, the remaining 47% of the base not African-American would be split among three major players. If it evenly split among the 3, each would garner approximately 15 percent. If Obama is attracting only 10%, as opposed to 15%, that's not a big deal. Giving the residents of South Carolina the benefit of the doubt -- they are supporting the candidate that speaks to their issues, regardless of color or gender, perhaps Edwards and Clinton are attracting voters who are rightfully theirs DESPITE the historical aspects of this race. Sure that might leave them when a larger number of the pale faces, but that's a natural ramification of African-Americas gravitating to a man who also speaks to their issues, not a discriminatory flavor to this election. And of course, Hillary and Edwards are getting a respectable percentage of the African-American vote, from the available reduced numbers in the overall well.

It is what it is because the voters of South Carolina are supporting the candidate with whom they identify. And that's simply the way the numbers shake out.

Does anyone think this might be a real possibility? Statistics are not my forte, just throwing this out as a possible perspective ....

[suston96]

19. I have posted these elsewhere .......

http://www.state.sc.us/cgi-bin/scsec/96vr?countykey=ALL&D1=RACE

Total registered voters in SC: 2,246,242

Total voted in Repub primary: 442,789

That leaves: 1,803,453

Of that # non-white voters: 629,000

That leaves total white voters 1,174,353

Non-white voters in SC have shown up by some 20% more than white voters.

The demographics in the exit polling on Saturday will tell all about how the two groups voted.

Missing is an important stat. Breakdown of women and men. Further broken down by white and non-white.