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Obama is beating Hillary in delegates by 1.

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jenmito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 08:19 PM
Original message
Obama is beating Hillary in delegates by 1.
Edited on Wed Jan-09-08 08:48 PM by jenmito
25 to 24. Edwards is a distant 3rd at 18. Just thought I'd bring it up. :)
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ORDagnabbit Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 08:20 PM
Response to Original message
1. sadly some delegates are more equal than others....
clinton is winning with super delegates
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Joe the Revelator Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 08:21 PM
Response to Reply #1
5. Which don't mean ANYTHING until the convention.
Why count them when they can switch at anytime?
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Jai4WKC08 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-10-08 03:16 PM
Response to Reply #5
53. But they don't switch
Super-delegates almost always stick with their original candidate until the candidate drops out.

They count, and you can't wish them away.

That said, there are MANY more delegates to be won. The current total, with or without super-delegates, is irrelevant.
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no name no slogan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 08:20 PM
Response to Original message
2. EVERYBODY PANIC!!!1111one!!one!11
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jenmito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 08:29 PM
Response to Reply #2
12. Who said anyone should panic?
:eyes:
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no name no slogan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 08:35 PM
Response to Reply #12
19. Just practicing
because I'm sure somebody will soon post something along those lines shortly.
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usregimechange Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 08:21 PM
Response to Original message
3. MSM won't be caught saying that.
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NMDemDist2 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 08:22 PM
Response to Reply #3
7. I just heard it on Olbermann's show n/t
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usregimechange Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 08:28 PM
Response to Reply #7
11. KO doesn't count
Edited on Wed Jan-09-08 08:29 PM by usregimechange
:applause:
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jenmito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 08:29 PM
Response to Reply #3
13. Olbermann just said it. That's where I saw it. n/t
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1corona4u Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 08:21 PM
Response to Original message
4. Whooptefuckingdo.
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jenmito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 08:31 PM
Response to Reply #4
14. Yup.
I'm glad you're excited to hear it! :hi:
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sniffa Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 09:41 PM
Response to Reply #4
34. .
:thumbsup:
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Honeycombe8 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 08:22 PM
Response to Original message
6. Hillary has 169 delegates. Obama has 70-something, last I looked.
I'm incl. the pledged superdelegates.
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jenmito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 08:32 PM
Response to Reply #6
15. Those don't count yet.
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Honeycombe8 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 08:55 PM
Response to Reply #15
27. Why not? Can they change their minds, once they pledge? nt
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jenmito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 08:55 PM
Response to Reply #27
28. They CAN change.
Edited on Wed Jan-09-08 08:58 PM by jenmito
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MzShellG Donating Member (835 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 09:50 PM
Response to Reply #28
35. Yup...
Until they sign them off to their candidate at the convention.
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HughMoran Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 08:33 PM
Response to Reply #6
18. Yes, that's where my confusion creeps in
Edited on Wed Jan-09-08 08:33 PM by HughMoran
NPR reported the numbers you quoted there today.
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rinsd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-10-08 02:59 PM
Response to Reply #18
51. Those numbers include pledged super-delegates
Super-delegates are various Dem office holders.

Super-delegates may change they minds up until the convention.
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jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 08:24 PM
Response to Original message
8. Edwards has 18. Obama has 25. Some distant third
Where did you get four extra delegates for Obama and Hillary?
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durrrty libby Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 08:26 PM
Response to Reply #8
9. CNN has a delegate tracker
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jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 08:37 PM
Response to Reply #9
21. jenmito is counting superdelegates
We know how irrelevant they are during the primary process since they will switch to the party's choice in the end. When it comes to delegates chosen by the people it is Obama 25, Hillary 24, and Edwards. Hillary has one extra delegate and Edwards one less because a quirk in Iowa's rules gave Hillary one more.
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jenmito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 08:38 PM
Response to Reply #21
22. No. OTHER people are counting superdelegates. I'm not.
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jenmito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 08:33 PM
Response to Reply #8
17. NH. n/t
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demnan Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 08:27 PM
Response to Original message
10. I'm really confused - I'm going to have read up on this
haven't we just had two states so far? Super delegates? Can't they change at the convention?
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TwilightZone Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 08:32 PM
Response to Original message
16. Hillary is up 183-78.
Edited on Wed Jan-09-08 08:32 PM by TwilightZone
Including superdelegates, some of whom can obviously shift at some point.

Edwards has 52.

http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/primaries/results/scorecard/#val=D
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jenmito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 08:36 PM
Response to Reply #16
20. As your post states, super delegates can shift. They don't count yet.
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jackson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 08:38 PM
Response to Reply #20
24. Then please correct your original post
You are counting superdelegates from New Hampshire for Obama and Clinton. They won nine delegates from the voters and Edwards four. The real count is Obama 25, Hillary 24, and Edwards a "distant third" at 18.
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slick8790 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 08:38 PM
Response to Original message
23. Distant third?
CNN shows Obama leading clinton by 1, with edwards 6 behind clinton. That's not distant when you need 2000+ delegates to win.
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jenmito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 08:51 PM
Response to Reply #23
26. Yeah. I consider that "distant." Especially when you consider his distant 3rd place finish in NH.
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slick8790 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 09:10 PM
Response to Reply #26
29. Ridiculous. That's less than one state.
And not even a win. A lot of states coming up have proportional delegates, so he doesn't even need to win to keep it close. Tell me he's a distant third when he's down by hundreds after super tuesday if thats the case. Not when he's down by 7 after 2 states.
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jenmito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 09:16 PM
Response to Reply #29
31. He hasn't won even the state he's campaigned in for YEARS.
What state can he win?
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Alcibiades Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-10-08 12:13 AM
Response to Reply #31
42. Know a lot about North Carolina politics?
My guess would be no.
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jenmito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-10-08 02:58 PM
Response to Reply #42
50. Are you saying he may win NC and therefore has a chance to be the nominee?
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Alcibiades Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-10-08 11:59 PM
Response to Reply #50
57. I'm just saying there has been a lot of eagerness here
for some reason to repeat things that were originally put out against Edwards by the Republicans in 2004. All that voting record stuff comes straight out of Bush's opposition research from then.

This is a red state in presidential elections, or has been since Reagan. The fact that Edwards won at all here says a lot about him as a campaigner. The "fact" that Edwards hasn't done well here is simply because he chose not to run for reelection when he sought the presidency the first time. He did this because North Carolina Republicans used to claim he was more interested in running for president than serving the state. The claims you've made here are part of that old argument.

North Carolina also isn't static. We're a fast-growing state, and the number one source of this in-migration is New York, which has meant more Democrats for us. The chance for Edwards--and all Democrats--to do well here is getting better every day.
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Yukari Yakumo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Jan-11-08 12:57 AM
Response to Reply #42
58. NC comes long *after* SuperTuesday.
By the time it's time for them to vote, Edwards would have had his ass kicked multiple times.

Plus his poll numbers in NC are far from spectacular.
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usregimechange Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 08:43 PM
Response to Original message
25. delete
Edited on Wed Jan-09-08 08:44 PM by usregimechange
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bullwinkle428 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 09:14 PM
Response to Original message
30. OVER? Did someone say OVER? Was it over when
the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? ;)
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jenmito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 09:19 PM
Response to Reply #30
32. I didn't say it's over in my OP...
but I think it's over for Edwards.
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DesertRat Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 09:21 PM
Response to Reply #30
33. Hell No!
;-)
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laureloak Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 09:52 PM
Response to Original message
36. Honey, 18 ain't so far behind 24 last I counted.
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jenmito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 10:08 PM
Response to Reply #36
37. He won't win any states. He should give it up now.
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Occam Bandage Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 10:09 PM
Response to Reply #36
38. It is when there's no prospect of the 18 ever increasing faster than the 24.
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jenmito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 11:20 PM
Response to Reply #38
39. Yup. There's NO way he's going to win or even beat the main two in SC...
just like he couldn't win in IA, where he's been campaigning for YEARS.
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Occam Bandage Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-10-08 01:14 AM
Response to Reply #39
43. Right. And things look even bleaker after that.
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laureloak Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-10-08 09:37 AM
Response to Reply #43
48. Who do you support - because I'll never back them.
Now SHUT UP!
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Andy823 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 11:35 PM
Response to Original message
40. Wow a distant third!
Two races, Edwards is behind Obama by only 6 to Obama, and 7 with Hillary, and you call that "distant", wow where did you get your math skills? :crazy:

Now if Obama were behind by 6, would you be calling that a "distant" third?????????????
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Turn CO Blue Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jan-09-08 11:57 PM
Response to Original message
41. Okay. we're headed for a brokered convention.
So far, there has been only 2% of the total "elected" delegates out there, but by the time we get to the late evening of February 5th, there will have been 66% of the delegates elected. This is the biggest "frontloading" that we've seen.

Right now the delegate count is Obama has 25 (37.3%), Clinton 24 (35.8%), and Edwards 18 (26.9%).
Two whole states with lots of excitement - but we're only 2% through our journey.

You see, there are 4,040 delegates - 3,298 elected and 792 superdelegates. But, as you've heard, superdelegates don't count UNTIL they sign at the Convention. Their pre-pledge means nothing, as they sway whichever way the Conventions winds are blowing.

If Edwards holds on to 20-25% of the elected delegates (he has 26.9% now) through February 5th, then we will go into Denver with a deadlock - because neither Obama or Clinton will have the required 2,020 needed out of the 4,040.

That means that even if Edwards never wins a single state, as long as he maintains a strong hold on 20% of the delegates, he can force a debate on the Convention floor or choose to sway his delegates to whichever frontrunner he chooses. He can make them adopt his platform. He can make them dance. Other candidates could even be nominated for consideration (Al Gore anyone?)


All Edwards has to do is stay in until Denver!

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Yukari Yakumo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-10-08 04:13 AM
Response to Reply #41
47. "If Edwards holds on to 20-25% of the elected delegates"
He won't. That number is inflated by his Iowa showing, which will be the high water mark of his campaign. It's all downhill from here for Edwards.
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JCMach1 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-10-08 03:03 AM
Response to Original message
44. One word... SUPERDELEGATES
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AtomicKitten Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-10-08 03:04 AM
Response to Reply #44
45. If you use caps, it's counted as three words.
Skinner's carrying charge.
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rinsd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-10-08 02:59 PM
Response to Reply #45
52. !!
:spray:
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jenmito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-10-08 02:56 PM
Response to Reply #44
49. One word... THEYCANSHIFTTHEIRSUPPORT
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Clintonista2 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-10-08 03:08 AM
Response to Original message
46. superdelegates change candidates
frequently
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BenDavid Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-10-08 03:57 PM
Response to Original message
54. hrc might as well drop out...oh,that is what obama folks in here
said she should do after she loses NH......
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jenmito Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-10-08 04:24 PM
Response to Reply #54
55. Got an example?
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PVnRT Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jan-10-08 04:26 PM
Response to Original message
56. Well, fuck-a-doodle-doo
It's over! Let the coronation begin!
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