January 9, 2008,10:50 am
Clinton’s Strategy Echoes Bush in 2000
By John Harwood
Hillary Clinton stands behind no Democratic presidential candidate in her scorn for George W. Bush – but that isn’t stopping her from implementing Mr. Bush’s 2000 primary strategy. In one notable consequence of the front-loaded 2008 political calendar, she implemented it before the New Hampshire primary, not after.
Recall that in 2000, John McCain smashed Mr. Bush in New Hampshire by dominating the votes of independents. But Mr. Bush wore down Mr. McCain in subsequent contests with a two-pronged strategy. He co-opted the Arizona senator’s “reform” mantra by calling himself the reformer who would actually produce results, and sharply criticized Mr. McCain in ways that deepened the doubts of Republican regulars. It worked, especially well in contests limited to GOP voters.
After her Iowa defeat, Mrs. Clinton adopted precisely the same approach against Barack Obama in New Hampshire. She co-opted Mr. Obama’s “change” theme but argued that she could act to produce it, while her less-experienced rival could only talk. She and her husband, former President Clinton, bluntly attacked Mr. Obama for having waffled on issues.
The strategy succeeded. The former First Lady won Democrats by a robust 45 percent - 34 percent margin, which overcome the Illinois senator’s twelve percentage-point margin among the smaller bloc of independent voters. Team Clinton will attempt to emulate that formula in the long march through Feb. 5, just as Mr. Bush did eight years ago.
The peculiar contours of 2008 lend Mr. Obama one critical advantage in states beyond New Hampshire that Mr. McCain didn’t enjoy: support from a core Democratic constituency that has played virtually no role in the first two contests.
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