Does Clinton's comeback raise questions about Obama's viability?

[Murdock]

Obama had all the momentum in the world coming out of Iowa, and yet he failed and lost a race he was leading by double digits.

Does this now, moving forward raise questions about his viability?

[CK_John]

1. As it would for all the candidates, it was a wakeup call for all. n/t

[TwilightGardener]

2. I think it does. Not because he's not a good candidate, but because

he was at the top of his game, with the wind at his back and tons of support, and people still decided to go with the "safe" inevitable choice. I will watch what happens in the next couple weeks, but if he comes in second in SC, he's done.

[sunonmars]

5. The problem for Obama is this

Obama really had to win New Hampshire,anything less was disappointing but Hilary didnt. Obamas expectation threshold was that he should have won with the momentum and a convincing huge poll lead and Hillary only had to come close to declare safety but a win, thats a whole different ball game.

Now she has shoved 2 fingers up in the face of a speeding juggernaut coming straight at her. People are already thinking, bloody hell, if she can do that and take Obama's momentum and essentialy shove a 12% poll lead up the exhaust pipe and turn it into a 2% win then Obama is in trouble.

[stevietheman]

7. I am amazed that people keep forgetting that Hillary...

had a tremendous lead in NH polls for a long time, and Obama only showed poll strength from his Iowa bump. That Obama lost by a couple points when Hillary was supposed to win big (pre-Iowa) means he's still a major force.

[Strelnikov_]

28. Me too, Steve, me too.

Oh well. The media has its script to follow.

[TwilightGardener]

13. I always thought it was improbable that he would win the nom, but a girl can hope--

I figured Edwards was doomed when Obama entered the race, and I was right. But when he won Iowa, I thought, this could really happen. He HAD to win Iowa, but also New Hampshire, to get enough head of steam going into SC, NV and Super Tuesday. Any halting of his momentum would be fatal. I can't say for sure what will happen in SC, so I'm not burying him just yet, but he is on life support. I don't blame Obama for the expectations game misfiring on him, though--HE didn't fuel it, the media and the faulty polls created an atmosphere that anything less than a wide margin of victory would be her comeback, as you say.

[stevietheman]

3. You mean the same race where Hillary was leading in double digits...

not long before Obama was leading in double digits?

New Hampshire is a volatile state... look at the history.

Obama's *narrow* loss shows he is very viable, and I say that as an Edwards supporter.

[HeraldSquare212]

4. LOL - moving from a double-digit deficit in five days establishes his viability

That was a squeaker for Clinton, the possibility of which would have been dismissed with laughter a month ago.

[DemocratSinceBirth]

20. You Can LOL All You Want

But the MSM is saying this is the biggest upset since Truman beat Dewey and that's all that matters...

[HeraldSquare212]

24. But the sentiment in headlines seems to be, she lives to fight another day

i.e., this doesn't mean she's inevitable again. Big difference, and a big difference to how she was seen just two weeks ago.

[Strelnikov_]

30. Is that the same media that was saying Obama was a lock 24 hours ago? n/t

[meegbear]

6. None at all ...

it means that people from different parts of the country, backgrounds, etc. have a different idea on who should be the nominee.

As it should be - one caucus and one primary should NOT be kingmakers.

[Rosa Luxemburg]

8. not at this stage, no

[Dawgs]

9. You've got to be kidding?

Obama won Iowa(96% white) by 8 points, and lost in NH(98% white) by 2.5%.

No questions at all.

[Barack_America]

10. Does the fact that Clinton barely squeeked out a victory...

...In a state where she had an enormous lead a month ago raise questions about Hillary's viability?

It should.

[goldcanyonaz]

12. This is crap. Ever think that Obama won Iowa because caucus goers were bullied?

Going to a caucus is very intimidating to some and many will bow to peer pressure. That's not the case when you get to vote in private.

[1corona4u]

19. OR because people had to give up the person they really wanted...

and vote for someone else?? Funny, but those 574 voters in NH, were still able to vote for Biden, even though he wasn't still in the race. Dodd even got his votes. DK Got his votes...this just further inforces what I think about the Iowa caucuses.

I think ALL primaries should be done in private. It insures an honest vote.

[Strelnikov_]

35. Since you seem intent on spamming this meme that Iowa was not democratic

I have to respond.

Following is the account of my caucus from Thursday. There was absolutely no intimidation. We are Democrats and civil, unlike here. And as for being democratic, at this point I prefer the caucus system. One can debate the 15% viability rule, but there is absolutely no way to game the system, as the count is out in the open (and I am not implying NH was gamed, as the results are plausible IMHO given the dynamics).

++++++++++++++++++++

At my precinct caucus, in a major university town, 550 people showed up, the demographics between groups was somewhat similar.

The precinct I am in has some students (college town), but is a good mix of professionals, blue collar.

Participation was up from 385 in 2004, and that 166 person increase was sure as hell not all 'college students'. The age distribution at the caucus seemed fairly representative of what I see walking around the neighborhood. If anything, there were LESS student looking types than I would have anticipated, and this was a precinct where the bussed in college students would have been dumped.

- Edwards/Obama groups appeared to be a uniform cross section of the population.

- Richardson/Biden/Dodd groups few less younger/older, appeared to trend a bit more to Professional/Academic.

- Clinton group trended older.

The results:

550 total (385 in 2004) 83 required for viability.

1st/2nd/3rd Round (percentages in paran), Delegates

Clinton……125 (23)…..132 (24)…..147 (27)....5
Edwards….…90 (16)…..117 (21)…..127 (23)…..4
Obama…….162 (29)…...176 (32)…..179 (33)…..5
Biden………46 (8)…….34.(6).
Dodd……….14 (3)……..0..
Kucinich……..7 (1)…….0..
NotCommit….40 (7)……0..
Richardson…..60 (11) .88 (16)…..97 (17)…..3
Gravel…………0……0

550 total final count, so everyone who came moved to a viable candidate.

So, in the end, Clinton and Obama tie (delegates). But the percent differences between Obama/Clinton/Edwards are somewhat similar to the statewide result. Richardson's strong showing in my precinct probably hurt Edwards a bit.

And as for "a lot of people coming in to participate had never been even seen before in the neighborhood" . . . 550 people in my precinct caucus, need I say more.

Also, I was one of those independents. I have voted Dem since my first vote in '80 for Carter. I generally register Independent. It's Iowa, have to cut down the robocalls somehow.

In the days leading up to the caucus, you could sense the Obama momentum. The win did not come out of the blue, and tracked fairly closely to the DMR poll a few days before the caucus.

[cindyw]

11. Huckabee won Iowa and lost by a lot. Obama only lost by 2% points.

[acmavm]

14. NO.

[Bread and Circus]

15. You need to get a wee bit of a clue....

1st) Obama was not supposed to win Iowa, yet he did.
2nd) Obama was not supposed to come as close in New Hampshire as he did (NH has always been Hillary's to lose), yet he did.
3rd) He never "led" New Hampshire. The polls were just wrong. Obviously, they didn't sample correctly
4th) Hillary won NH by a very slim margin, she had been leading by a wide margin all year. It was Obama that pulled close.
5th) Hillary only won because of gender based politics, white women voted for one of their own, by a huge margin.
6th) Obama has done vastly better with independent voters which is how the GE will be won.

In the General election, Obama is the solid money.

All that said, 2 things are still true:

1.) Hillary's gender based politics vote may still rule the day and she may win it all on the strength of women voting for one of their own.
2.) Obama got some bump from Iowa in that he was supposed to lose NH by a larger margin but his camp failed to shape the narrative so that Hillary's small win is perceived as a change in momentum for her favor.

I really want Obama to win at this point but I'm very afraid that the Clinton's still have a lot of tricks up their sleeves and that Democratic Women are going to vote for Hillary primarily because she's a woman (whether that's right or wrong is another debate).

[Politicub]

16. It's a setback, but there's a long way to go

No matter if it's either Clinton or Obama, we dems are on the cusp of making history with our nominee!!

[William769]

17. What it means is Hillary won and Obama lost.

Just like in Iowa Obama won and Hillary lost. We have a race that is good for the Democratic party is what it means.

[EV_Ares]

27. Exactly, I mean this is just the second primary, a long ways to go for

all of them. The press will parse everything about it but in the end, she won and now they move on to the next on.

[Irishonly]

18. I Wish People Would Stop Listening

to the MSM. They have been trying to dictate our nominee. All of our candidates are strong and I hated to see Biden and Dodd drop out. Kuchinich and Edwards now have something in common-no press coverage. Clinton is a strong candidate whether you agree with her policies or not as is Obama. I am glad the MSM cannot tell us the rest of the candidates should give it up.

[Bullet1987]

22. I agree...people need to turn off their T.V.s if they think Obama is done

And I bet Biden and Dodd are also feeling like a couple of idiots right now.

[1corona4u]

25. I think that's a pretty brash statement....

I don't think they are feeling like 'idiots'. I also don't think they regret thier decisions to get out. They saw what was happening. The media built this race. Nothing more.

Just like last night when all the talking heads threw the 'racism' card out there, and all of a sudden the Obama supporters started saying the same thing. They do it, because IT WORKS. They influence your thoughts. That was the intended purpose.

[jeanmarc]

21. Soft support for both Hillary and Obama

Iowa voters quickly switched from Hillary to Obama and New Hampshire voters quickly switched from Obama to Hillary.

I think it proves that neither candidate has done a good job pronouncing the differences between them to the average voter and that much of the support for both candidates is soft right now.

[blankdvd256]

26. I think it's time to move to canada

The democratic establishment is backing hillary but why there is no way in hell she is going to win the general and aren't this people tired of losing? Obama can bring new people and independents Hilary can't. Every election I keep hoping maybe things will be better and every year I am let down I am losing hope for america I really want to just move to canada.

[Didereaux]

34. absolutely dead WRONG! Obama got the percentage that he polled going in it was Edwards...

who lost the votes to Clinton. Look again at those fri-sat-sun polls Obama averaged right arounf 37-38%, and he got 36%,,,DAMNED CLOSE. Now look at Edwards' numbers. He lost a BIG bunch. Now add in the undecided percentages and voila' you get Clintons 15-17% bump. But as I have said since the day before the voting...take heed of the BACKLASH to the excessive bashing. All those votes of Edwards and who knows how many indies and undecideds voted Clinton for no other reason than BACKLASH.

[EffieBlack]

23. Not at all

The fact that he was beaten by another candidate does not mean he is not viable. There are several viable candidates in the race - which makes this all so exciting.

[demo dutch]

29. Something to do with experience in NH, Indies also went to McCain for that reason, and

if it's Obama vs McCain in the GE, one terror alert (quite likely since the GOP will do anything, as we know, to win) the Indies will drop Obama like a hot potatoe.

[Didereaux]

31. No, Obama's viability remains as it was, all that happened in NH was a re-leveling of the field

[ProudDad]

32. Nope

it raises questions about Deibold voting machines...how they're hacked...by whom and why.

[GalleryGod]

33. Nope. Bobby lost Oregon to McCarthy; Mondale lost NH to Hart.

GOBAMA Folks...let's do it!