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Majority of Obama's support comes from Democrats, according to my math

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antiimperialist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-01-08 09:37 PM
Original message
Majority of Obama's support comes from Democrats, according to my math
Edited on Tue Jan-01-08 09:44 PM by antiimperialist
One fellow DU'er posted a thread in which he linked to a Talkleft diary claiming that "Majority of Obama Support Not From Democrats".
But my calculations lead me to conclude that this is not the case.

Here it goes:

DMR polled 800 likely voters, broken down as follows:

400 Democrats (55% of all respondents)
320 Independents (40% of all respondents)
40 Republicans (5% of all respondents )

Obama gets 27% of the Democratic vote= 130 Dems
Obama gets 39% of the Independent vote=100 Ind.
Total of Obama's support=230 votes, plus the number of 40 Republicans who chose Obama. Unfortunately, the poll gave us no breakdown of Republican support for each candidate.

As you can see, Obama has the vote of 30 more Democrats than independents, before calculating support among the small 5% of Republicans. Even if 100% of the Republicans had chosen Obama as their favorite in this poll, this would be a tie (130% Democrats for Obama vs. 130 non-Democrats for Obama).

Assuming the very likely scenario that not all Republicans chose Obama, we are left with the conclusion that most of Obama's supporters are Democrats, though by a modest margin.
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IndianaJones Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-01-08 09:38 PM
Response to Original message
1. I wouldn't call that a huge leap. nt.
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maximusveritas Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-01-08 09:40 PM
Response to Original message
2. It's a meaningless point anyway
What's wrong with Independents?
I'm one. And I've always voted for Democrats in General Elections.
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dsc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-01-08 09:47 PM
Response to Original message
3. 100% of 40 is 40
Edited on Tue Jan-01-08 09:57 PM by dsc
so if he had 100% among GOP then he wouldn't be tied. He would have 140 indy/GOP and 130 Dem. The break even point is a split of 35 to 5 or 87.5%. Incidently to find out his exact number just take his percent in this poll, multiply by 800, and subtract the 230 people you have already accounted for. The number you get will be the number who vote for him and are GOP.

editted to fix typo.
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antiimperialist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-01-08 09:51 PM
Response to Reply #3
4. I'm confused, but you are right on the 100% of 40 being 40
For some reason I wrote 30.
So what is the percentage of Republicans who chose Obama, again?
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antiimperialist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-01-08 09:55 PM
Response to Reply #4
5. And note that Talkleft said it takes 40% pro-Obama Republicans for this to be true
But even if Obama gets 85% of Republicans, which is 34 Republicans out of 40, he would still get the support mostly from Democrats

100+34=134 non-Democrats
130+6=136 Democrats
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dsc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-01-08 09:56 PM
Response to Reply #4
6. Here goes
Edited on Tue Jan-01-08 10:03 PM by dsc
Take his total percent in the poll, say 35%.

35% of 800 is 280. Thus 280 people, in total, voted for him. You have accounted for 230. That leaves 50, so we know his support wasn't really 35%. BTW you are confused because I had a typo. It should have been 800, not 400.

On edit You have accounted for 230 and he would need 35 more for there to be an even number of dem and non dem supporters. That is 265 total which is just barely over 33%. So if he has 33% or more in the poll then he probably has a majority of his support coming from non dems. If he is less than 33% then the majority of his support is dem.
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OHdem10 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-01-08 10:07 PM
Response to Original message
7. One people involved in the poll stated clearly most of Obama's
support comes from GOP and Independents. She was decisive in her
answer.
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antiimperialist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-01-08 10:08 PM
Response to Reply #7
8. Thanks. Do you have a link? nt
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papau Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-01-08 10:19 PM
Response to Reply #8
10. see post below - the math is clear - most Obama votes are from Non-Dem's
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antiimperialist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-01-08 10:44 PM
Response to Reply #10
12. I think you didn't understand. I asked you for a link
Edited on Tue Jan-01-08 10:51 PM by antiimperialist
You say that the "one people involved in the poll" said his support comes mostly from non-Democrats.
Can you give me a link? Nothing is said in the Demoines Register poll story about Obama getting most of his support from non-Democrats.
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papau Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-01-08 11:45 PM
Response to Reply #12
13. the "link" is the actual article and then applying the numbers in the article
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20080101/NEWS09/301010015/-1/iowapoll07

"Clinton remains the favorite of the party faithful, with support from a third of self-described Democrats. However, Obama is the clear choice of caucusgoers who affiliate with neither the Democrat or Republican parties, with roughly 40 percent of them backing him in the survey.

The support from non-Democrats is significant because a whopping 40 percent of those planning to attend described themselves as independent and another 5 percent as Republican. Only registered Democrats can participate in the caucuses, although rules allow participants to change their party registration on their way in to the caucuses."

(BUT NOTE THE REGISTER JUST CHANGED THEIR TURNOUT MODEL TO INCLUDE FEWER DEMOCRATS AND MORE INDEPENDENTS - USING 2004 MODEL CLINTON ACTUALLY LEADS)

From latest poll:
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papau Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-01-08 10:15 PM
Response to Original message
9. Poll had 727 people with 232 for Obama split 108 Dem and 124 non-Dem
Edited on Tue Jan-01-08 10:17 PM by papau
reported 32% is 232 votes for Obama

55% of 727 is 400 Democrats.

27% of 400 is 108 Dem votes for Obama

108 plus 124 equal total votes for Obama =232
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antiimperialist Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-01-08 10:21 PM
Response to Reply #9
11. Pollster.com and the Desmoine Register website say 800 likely Democratic caucus goers, not 727
Edited on Tue Jan-01-08 10:40 PM by antiimperialist
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papau Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jan-01-08 11:48 PM
Response to Reply #11
14. The 400 and 55% mean 727 - if 55% and 800 total the excess non-Dem for Obama is larger
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