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IA POLL: Dead heat between Hillary (22%), Edwards (21%), and Obama (18%); undecided (27%)

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jefferson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-19-07 03:38 PM
Original message
IA POLL: Dead heat between Hillary (22%), Edwards (21%), and Obama (18%); undecided (27%)
Edited on Tue Jun-19-07 03:41 PM by jefferson_dem
From NBC's Mark Murray
A new Mason-Dixon poll shows that Clinton, Edwards, and Obama are all in a dead heat in Iowa. But the actual leader in the survey is someone who isn't even running -- and isn't even a person: It's "undecided".

In the poll -- which was taken of 400 likely Democratic caucus-goers from June 13-16, and which has a margin of error of +/- 5% -- Clinton is at 22%, Edwards is at 21%, and Obama is at 18%. Richardson comes in fourth at 6%, and Biden gets 4%; no other Dem gets more than 2%. But a whopping 27% say they are undecided.

On the Republican side, Romney has the clear lead at 25% (even over "undecided," which checks in at 21%). He's followed by Thompson at 17%, Giuliani at 15%, Huckabee at 7%, and McCain and Brownback at 6% each.

With the caveat that the caucuses are seven months away, the big winners in this Iowa poll are Romney (who's leading the GOP pack) and Clinton and Obama (who both seem to have a clear shot at taking this contest). The losers? Edwards (who needs to be ahead in Iowa) and McCain (who finishes tied for fifth with Brownback).

http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2007/06/19/230049.aspx

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William769 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-19-07 03:40 PM
Response to Original message
1. I am a firm believer that John Edwards will ultimately win Iowa.
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William769 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-19-07 03:58 PM
Response to Reply #1
17. I guess I'll just have to be snarky with myself here.
:shrug:
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Nimrod2005 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-19-07 05:37 PM
Response to Reply #1
39. I agree, Edwards will win IA, Obama is going to win NH and SC
Hillary will have enough money to stay in it until we get to Florida and CA, but it will be too little too late by then...I honestly think people will break away from her at the end, deciding she is not electable, similar to what happened to Dean/Kerry in 2004.

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William769 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-19-07 08:48 PM
Response to Reply #39
46. Obama does not have a chance in N.H.
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struggle4progress Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-19-07 09:39 PM
Response to Reply #39
49. I'm interested that Obama leads SC in this poll, since SC seems to me ...
... the most politically backward state in the entire Confederacy block.

SC began flying the Confederate battle flag on its statehouse in the early 1960s, as the civil rights movement swept across the South, and didn't remove the flag from the statehouse until 2000 -- at which point it was simply relocated to a somewhat less conspicuous flagpole nearby. SC didn't remove the ban on interracial marriage from its Constitution until 1998, and that fact really reflects SC attitudes: Bob Jones University in Greenville didn't end its campus ban on interracial dating until 2000.





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SunDrop23 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-19-07 08:28 PM
Response to Reply #1
43. I hope you're right!
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jcrew2001 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-19-07 08:29 PM
Response to Reply #1
44. It will hurt Hillary more if Obama wins Iowa
because he will then likely win NH. Edwards likely can't win NH even with a win in Iowa.
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William769 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-19-07 08:47 PM
Response to Reply #44
45. N.H. belongs to Hillary. Go ahead and bookmark this post.
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jcrew2001 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-19-07 08:59 PM
Response to Reply #45
48. Well NH is Hillary's to lose
nt
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SteelPenguin Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-19-07 03:40 PM
Response to Original message
2. If I lived in Iowa I'd be part of the 27%
I feel like a kid in a candy store. I don't know who to get behind. I like them all.
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IA_Seth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-19-07 03:49 PM
Response to Reply #2
11. I do, and I am one of the 27%...
The only difference is I feel like a kid in the produce section...I know all of them are good for me, but I am not really energized about any of them yet.
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flpoljunkie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-19-07 05:42 PM
Response to Reply #11
40. Have you as an Iowa resident, seen any of them speak yet--up close and personal.
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IA_Seth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-19-07 06:05 PM
Response to Reply #40
41. Yes..
Although not nearly as much as I would like to due to circumstance. It is one of the joys of being in Iowa.

I hope to catch Bill Clinton when he makes a swing through Iowa soon, as I haven't seen/heard any Clinton campaign speeches in person.
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SaveElmer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-19-07 03:41 PM
Response to Original message
3. A three way tie ends it for Edwards...
But +/-5% MoE is pretty large...


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aquart Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-19-07 03:43 PM
Response to Reply #3
6. Nonsense.
It's really annoying the way the rest of us aren't given a fair chance to vote on our choice of candidate by people who call races prematurely. You know, like Bush called it for Bush in 2000?
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SaveElmer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-19-07 03:44 PM
Response to Reply #6
8. You think I have some magical power...?
I am making a prediction based on the current political dynamic...not ordaining some outcome

If you don't like it you are free to ignore it!
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draft_mario_cuomo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-19-07 03:47 PM
Response to Reply #3
9. Some polls have shown him trailing HRC but most have shown him leading
Edited on Tue Jun-19-07 03:47 PM by draft_mario_cuomo
This is nothing earth shattering for polls have shown this in the past. Interestingly, despite being from neighboring Illinois and sharing a media market with part if Iowa, no poll has ever shown Obama leading in Iowa.
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SaveElmer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-19-07 03:49 PM
Response to Reply #9
12. Yeah just based on this poll...
If this poll reflects how it actually turned out, it is hard to see how Edwards moves on...

Unfortunately for him I think he needs to win big in Iowa...

It'll be interesting to see how Hillary campaigning with the Big Dawg affects things next week...
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Adelante Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-19-07 03:52 PM
Response to Reply #12
15. Me, too
I was wondering how Bill's visit would affect the polls in Iowa. I have to say, I didn't expect anything like this one today.
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draft_mario_cuomo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-19-07 04:05 PM
Response to Reply #12
18. Ok. If he loses Iowa he is done
I don't agree, though, that he needs to win big. One benefit of the corporate media's HRC-Obama obsession is it has really lowered expectations for Edwards. If he manages to win Iowa it will come as a surprise to many people who were told there was a two-way race. It would be like Kerry coming out of nowhere to win when it was supposed to be a Dean-Clark-Gephardt (if he won Iowa) battle for the nomination.
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eweaver155 Donating Member (218 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-19-07 03:49 PM
Response to Reply #3
10. That is crazy. It is not over for him.
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SaveElmer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-19-07 03:51 PM
Response to Reply #10
14. Did you read what I wrote...
If...8 months from now...not now...but 8 months froom now...Edwards does not win Iowa, in my opinion, he will be very close to folding his tent...

He needs momentum from Iowa to overtake Hillary in Nevada, New Hampshire and possibly Florida, not to mention the boost she may get from early California voting, and Obama in SC...

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monkeyhq Donating Member (39 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-19-07 04:24 PM
Response to Reply #14
29. Not a chance...
...in hell Edwards would win in NH with New Englanders in the race. YMMV.
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SaveElmer Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-19-07 04:35 PM
Response to Reply #29
30. Dodd the only New Englander in the race...
Edited on Tue Jun-19-07 04:38 PM by SaveElmer
How is he doing?
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monkeyhq Donating Member (39 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-19-07 04:43 PM
Response to Reply #30
32. I am counting NY as NE.
I guess it would be more appropriate to say "northeasterner"
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wyldwolf Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-19-07 03:41 PM
Response to Original message
4. Fascinating. Iowa polls are almost as screwy as SC polls.
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Cha Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-19-07 03:42 PM
Response to Original message
5. Good! I like it that
the candidates are so close together so we can have a real choice.
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SharonRB Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-19-07 03:43 PM
Response to Original message
7. Time for Al to jump in and break the deadlock n/t
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AndyTiedye Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-19-07 03:50 PM
Response to Original message
13. 27%: There Has to Be Someone Better Than These Candidates!
Someone who has the right message and the means to communicate it.
GORE 2008
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MiniMe Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-19-07 03:57 PM
Response to Original message
16. Didn't Edwards have a huge lead there at one time?
Not sure, but I think I remember hearing that somewhere.
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draft_mario_cuomo Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-19-07 04:15 PM
Response to Reply #16
24. No. I think the biggest lead he ever had was 6 points
HRC had instant name ID and Obama is from the neighboring state so that pretty much eliminated his chances of having a big lead in Iowa.
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IA_Seth Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-19-07 04:39 PM
Response to Reply #24
31. Oh geez..
Obama being from Illinois has absolutely no bearing on his numbers. It was practically an Obama blackout until 5-6 months ago here in Iowa. On the other hand Edwards has been here for what, 5 years now? His name recognition in Iowa is up there with Clinton's, and well above that of Obama's.

Edwards has a lot of organization in Iowa, and I think that will be the key to him holding on here to remain in the top 3. I think that the MOE is playing tricks in this particular poll and would wager that Edwards is still leading Iowa.

Which is a good thing for Edwards, because I too believe that if Edwards doesnt win Iowa his chances are minimal of gaining any traction anywhere else.

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dsc Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-19-07 08:54 PM
Response to Reply #24
47. Chicago is several hours from Iowa
I live closer to Maryland and Pennsylvania (and I live in NC) than Obama lives to Iowa.
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Capn Sunshine Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-19-07 04:07 PM
Response to Original message
19. HRC thinks skipping Iowa will avoid losing
Kos has a different perspective
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William769 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-19-07 04:08 PM
Response to Reply #19
20. When has HRC Skipped Iowa?
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Capn Sunshine Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-19-07 04:09 PM
Response to Reply #20
21. I thought the organization floated that
She decided to stay? I can't keep up
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William769 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-19-07 04:11 PM
Response to Reply #21
22. The Obama campaign floated it it around.
Edited on Tue Jun-19-07 04:12 PM by William769
One of the reasons her numbers have gone up there is because she is adv idly campaigning there.
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jefferson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-19-07 04:19 PM
Response to Reply #22
25. Obama? He had nothing to do this. It was a memo drafted by Hillary's campaign manager that
questioned whether they should skip Iowa. Geesh. You guys have Obama-fixation.
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ElizabethDC Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-19-07 04:22 PM
Response to Reply #25
27. The memo wasn't drafted by her campaign manager, silly.
Her campaign manager is Patti Solis Doyle; the memo was written by Mike Henry.
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jefferson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-19-07 05:11 PM
Response to Reply #27
34. Well, EXCUSE me. It was her "deputy" campaign manager.
The recommendation to pull out of Iowa was in a memorandum written by Mike Henry, Mrs. Clinton’s deputy campaign manager. He made a case that Iowa would consume too much time and money that could be better invested elsewhere.

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/05/24/us/politics/24strategy.html?ex=1182398400&en=25957d7730332be4&ei=5070
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ElizabethDC Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-19-07 05:14 PM
Response to Reply #34
37. You're excused. n/t
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William769 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-19-07 04:24 PM
Response to Reply #25
28. They wrote it Obama floated it.
She was not the one who had to apologize this week, I wonder who that was?
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jefferson_dem Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-19-07 05:13 PM
Response to Reply #28
36. What are you talking about? Is every leaked memo connected to Obama?
Can you cite any evidence that Obama was behind this memo in question.

Actually, "story" is that this memo was leaked by Hill's own campaign - those who did not want her to skip Iowa and knew that making the idea public would make skipping the state impossible.

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ElizabethDC Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-19-07 04:12 PM
Response to Reply #21
23. Someone on her staff floated the idea - but she never went with it
as a matter of fact, I think she's been in Iowa every weekend (except perhaps one) since the memo was leaked - she says she plans to be in Iowa so much that she can caucus for herself. :)
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rinsd Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-19-07 05:12 PM
Response to Reply #19
35. Catch up dear Capt, that meme died a few weeks ago (nt)
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monkeyhq Donating Member (39 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-19-07 04:20 PM
Response to Original message
26. Edwards in big trouble.
"With the caveat that the caucuses are seven months away, the big winners in this Iowa poll are Romney (who's leading the GOP pack) and Clinton and Obama (who both seem to have a clear shot at taking this contest). The losers? Edwards (who needs to be ahead in Iowa) and McCain (who finishes tied for fifth with Brownback)."

After a dozen or so polls in late May and the 1st half of June, the trend is consistently down for Edwards. I don't see that changing, especially when you are consistently apologizing that most of the votes you made in the Senate were wrong. The only record he really has to stand on is a record of mistakes, IMO.

Clinton is picking up steam, as is Richardson, and Obama is holding his own and picking up steam as his name recognition increases.

By November, I think this will become a three person race between Clinton, Obama, and Richardson (unless Clark or Gore enter the picture).
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calteacherguy Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-19-07 04:57 PM
Response to Original message
33. The undecides win! nt
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mckeown1128 Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-19-07 05:16 PM
Response to Original message
38. This poll smells..
I think this is an anomaly. Edwards will win Iowa. I am positive of that.
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Nedsdag Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-19-07 08:26 PM
Response to Original message
42. It's too close to call in Iowa.
Call me back in December when polls mean something.
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momophile Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-19-07 10:39 PM
Response to Original message
50. run, Al, run nt
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