Florida Senate vs Presidential races

[yowzayowzayowza]

Keeping in mind that Castor is looking for a recount in her Florida Senate race:

(On edit: and the number of outstanding absentee ballots)

Florida - President
3,831,266 Bush
3,457,256 Kerry
=========
374,010 Margin

Florida - Senate:
3,547,299 Martinez
3,468,066 Castor
==========
79,233 Margin

Democratic difference
3,457,256 Kerry
3,468,066 Castor
=========
-10,810 Margin

Republican difference
3,831,266 Bush
3,547,299 Martinez
=========
+283,967 Margin

Sooo, where'd the extra Bush votes come from? Those votes would amount to 76% of the Bush margin of victory. Did 3.9% of voters really show up to vote for Bush only? Would be interesting to compare the other down-ticket races as well.

[yowzayowzayowza]

1. Ideas?

How much of the Bush exit poll discrepancy would these votes identify?
:kick:

[Awsi Dooger]

2. Very interesting

I was planning to do comparisons like that beginning tomorrow.

Another puzzle is how we do so much better in Florida senate races than presidential races during a presidential year. Nelson won big in 2000, far ahead of Gore's numbers even if every ballot had been perfect, and Castor fared much better than Kerry this year.

[derbstyron]

3. keep in mind that Castor is more moderate than Kerry

And she ran her campaign as a "Graham Democrat", a moderate. The only way to get elected in this right-wing wacko state. One interesting thing of note though (at last check anyway) she is carrying all three central florida counties and the I-4 corridor.
This sucks :(

[yowzayowzayowza]

4. No, no, no.

The Kerry/Castor difference is only -10k. The weird margin is Bush/Martinez.

[derbstyron]

5. I know

I just think it's interesting that she's carrying central FL and Kerry isn't (minus any stolen votes, mind you). Of course, part of this can be explained as she is from the Tampa Bay area (former university president). A liberal will never carry this state by a decent (read: theft preventing) margin due to the rednecks and religious people in the north and the panhandle.
The disappoint thing in this election for me (from the Tampa Bay area) is asshole's win (alledgely) in the I-4 corridor. I don't have the numbers offhand but I think Gore did better.
:(

[yowzayowzayowza]

6. Kerry only got 0.14% less than Castor.

Bush got 3.85% MORE than Martinez.

[derbstyron]

7. sorry

That just sunk in. It's late and I'm tired.
something NOT right. You are correct.

[independentpiney]

8. The *-Martinez difference is a red flag

Something very strange there.

[mzmolly]

9. .

[yowzayowzayowza]

10. Time fer some

zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzs.
:kick:

[progdonkey]

11. Veterans Party

This appears to be a RW Libertarian group that was on the ballot with Martinez and Castor, garnering 162363 votes, or 2% according to ABC. It's very probable that everyone who voted for the VET candidate voted for Bush, which would leave the unexplained gap between the Senate and Presidential races at 121604.

That's still a suspiciously large gap--and that's assuming every VET voter voted for Bush.

[progdonkey]

12. actually, I'm now thinking it's a red herring...

It's well known that in every election there are people who don't understand that you have to vote for every office on the ballot. That is, they think that voting for George Bush means they're voting for the Republicans across the board, so they don't select anything else.

I don't know if there would be 100,000 of these stupid people in Florida, but it's possible.