U.S. tax credits running out for popular hybrids

[Algorem]

Do hybrid-car tax credits go the wrong way?
Incentives fall as sales rise

http://www.cleveland.com/autonews/plaindealer/index.ssf?/base/business/1151224430315680.xml&coll=2

Sunday, June 25, 2006
John Funk and Christopher Jensen
Plain Dealer Reporters

...Uncle Sam's credits for hybrids made by Toyota - the hybrid sales leader - will be cut in half at the close of business Sept. 30. They will be halved again at the end of the year and slashed to zero at the end of the first quarter in 2007...

The tax cut for buying a Toyota Prius is now $3,150; for a Camry, $2,600. That's off the bottom line on your Form 1040, what you owe the government...

Full tax credits will remain available from the domestic automakers - because they are selling so few hybrids. Of the Big Three, only Ford currently offers hybrids that are eligible for a tax credit: the Escape Hybrid and Mercury Mariner Hybrid.

General Motors plans to offer a hybrid model of its Saturn VUE this summer, but it has not yet been certified by the IRS for a tax credit...



Auto's clout tested
U.S. carmakers face challenge on fuel economy

June 25, 2006

FREE PRESS WASHINGTON BUREAU

http://www.freep.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20060625/BUSINESS01/606250588/1002/BUSINESS

WASHINGTON -- Like fireflies at dusk, lobbying receptions pop up most evenings on Capitol Hill when Congress is in session. Corporations and organizations typically count themselves lucky if they lure a lawmaker or two.

But when the heads of General Motors Corp., Ford Motor Co. and the Chrysler Group held a reception May 18 on Capitol Hill, they drew about 60 senators and more than 250 House members. That came after the three chief executive officers -- Rick Wagoner, Bill Ford and Tom LaSorda -- marched through a series of meetings with every leader in both parties from both chambers, a level of attention rarely granted even heads of state.

It was an uncommon public display of Motown's influence in Washington, where the three automakers spend about $25 million a year lobbying lawmakers and federal officials. Detroit's lobbyists have earned back those investments many times over, winning victories on topics from fuel economy standards to arcane portions of bankruptcy laws.

Yet after successful lobbying in 2005, the automakers face a challenging 2006. High oil prices have pushed more lawmakers to favor tougher fuel economy standards, a move Detroit vigorously opposes. The carmakers have lobbied for a stronger response to trade and currency issues, with little result. And at a time when GM and Ford have slashed jobs and closed plants, the automakers have been forced to fight a perception that they're looking to Washington for large-scale relief on health care and pension obligations...

[lindisfarne]

1. Another article i read (and posted here) said Sept 30 is cutoff for Prius;

after that, the credit is cut by half for 2 quarters, (then I believe is cut to 25% through Sept 30 2007, then nothing). But there is some vague talk about the government renewing the credit - although I would NOT count on it.

The fact that the domestics aren't even close to hitting the limit just shows that the public isn't going to spend more to buy a "hybrid" that costs more while only minimally increasing mileage. Even though the amount of the credit does reflect the mileage of the hybrid, I think certain "hybrids" should have been excluded: those which get less than 30 mpg (or maybe 35 mpg).

[Robb]

2. Or make it fair across the board

...Less about the hybridity (?) of the engine, and more about the mpg.

Motorcyclists, for example, would be delighted. ;)

[lindisfarne]

3. I've found out that a lot of motorcycles get horrible mileage and the

pollutants most emit are far worse than cars because the engines aren't subject to the same emissions standards (this last part is probably more relevant in CA which has stricter emissions standards than the rest of the US).

[Robb]

4. Only half correct

I've been getting 78-85 mpg on a 249cc four-stroke, and I don't know of any riders who are getting less than in the 50s; but again, I ain't hangin' out with the de-tuned Harley crowd. ;)

Federal MC emissions requirements are 5 grams per kilometer hydrocarbon and 12 grams per kilometer carbon monoxide (5 g/km HC and 12 g/km CO); CA has stricter standards on bikes, too, 1.0 g/km for 50-699cc and 1,4 g/km for 700cc and above motorcycles.

Both federally and in California, MC emissions are allowed to be about twice as high per mile as motor vehicles.

[lindisfarne]

5. I know 2 people who had/have motorcycles; they say they get

Probably older models; they both bought them used. Others have affirmed this as well. In CA, you always see motorcyclists sneaking between cars on the freeway (driving along the dotted line) or at stop lights under the mistaken assumption this is legal. I've made comments that at one time, I felt I shouldn't get as irritated by it as I might because they're getting much better gas mileage than cars but that others have informed me that motorcycles don't get great mileage. Others with motorcycles or who know something about motorcycles have affirmed that most motorcycles don't get great mileage.

[Robb]

6. Well, I can't imagine

My riding experience has taught me completely the opposite.

Think it through: when the bike tips over, I can pick it up. Mine weighs less than 250 pounds. It doesn't take as much fuel to move.

I bought my most recent used for $2,000 two years ago, and I've been watching gas consumption like a hawk -- to where I can tell you the date I broke even on gas money saved over driving the car on my short commute, even only driving in the summer. :D

Most motorcycles get great gas mileage.

On the other thing, bear in mind in most states (mine included) riding the yellow line, while dangerous, is quite legal. I never do it, myself.

[lindisfarne]

7. The weight reason is why I thought they would get good mileage. But

someone pointed out lawn mower engines are really inefficient despite not moving anything (you push them). They scare me to death though; I'll stick with my bicycle. I don't see how driving on the yellow line can always be legal though; passing on the shoulder is usually prohibited so I don't understand why there'd be a special law making it legal for motorcycles. If a car did that to get around another car at a stoplight/stopsign, they'd get ticketed. Same with squeezing between 2 cars on the freeway, driving down the white dashed line (I've seen it done when cars were going 45-55 mph).

[lindisfarne]

9. If motorcycles are allowed 2x the emissions of cars, isn't it just as good

to drive a car that gets very good mileage (high 30s or better) such as a Toyota Corolla? The gas costs almost 2x as much but the pollutants are slightly lower in the car.

[Dead_Parrot]

10. How is 30mpg better than 50mpg?

Motorcycles might churn out more particulates, but particulates aren't fucking the planet...

(apologies if I'm misunderstanding your post!)

[lindisfarne]

12. I don't think it's just particulates, although I'm not sure I understand

exactly what you mean.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2006/01/060101155000.htm
Posted: January 1, 2006
Motorcycles Emit 'Disproportionately High' Amounts Of Air Pollutants
Motorcycles collectively emit 16 times more hydrocarbons, three times more carbon monoxide and a “disproportionately high” amount of other air pollutants compared to passenger cars, according to a Swiss study to be published in the Jan. 1 issue of the American Chemical Society’s journal Environmental Science & Technology. The study, by Ana-Marija Vasic and Martin Weilenmann of the Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Testing and Research, found both two- and four-cycle motorcycle engines emitted significantly more of these pollutants than automobile engines.

Particularly worrisome are the high levels of hydrocarbons emitted by Japanese, German and Italian two-wheelers, according to the study. Some hydrocarbons have been linked to global warming, while others are suspected of being carcinogenic. Motorcycles aren’t a primary means of transport in most developed countries, the authors note. As a consequence, they say, “the importance of emissions has been underestimated in legislation, giving manufacturers little motivation to improve aftertreatment systems.”

Until recently, for instance, U.S. emission standards for highway motorcycles hadn’t been updated in 25 years, despite the fact that these vehicles produced more harmful exhaust emissions per mile than cars or even large sports utility vehicles, according to the Environmental Protection Agency. However, a new EPA rule, which goes into effect in January, will require manufacturers to reduce combined emissions of hydrocarbons and nitrogen oxides in motorcycle exhausts by 60 percent. When the rule takes full effect in 2010, the EPA estimates it will reduce emissions of these pollutants by about 54,000 tons a year, and save approximately 12 million gallons of fuel annually by preventing it from evaporating from fuel hoses and tanks.
==================
ABSTRACT here's the abstract for the article mentioned above:
Passenger cars are the primary means of transportation in Europe. Over the past decade, a great deal of attention has therefore been paid to reducing their emissions. This has resulted in notable technical progress, leading to unprecedentedly low exhaust emissions. In the meantime, emissions from motorcycles have been ignored due to their subordinate role in traffic. Even though the motorcycle fleet is small in comparison with the car fleet, and logs lower yearly mileage per vehicle, their contribution to traffic emissions has become disproportionately high. Exhaust emissions of CO, HC, NOx, and CO2 from 8 powered twowheelers were measured and compared to previous measurements from 17 gasoline-powered passenger cars performed at EMPA with the aim of ascertaining their relevance. Using exhaust emission ratios from both vehicle types, comparisons based on mean unit, mean yearly, and fleet emissions are considered. Present-day after treatment technologies for motorcycles are not as efficient as those for cars. A comparison of mean unit emissions shows that motorcycles exceed cars in NOx emissions. All comparisons reveal a significant HC ratio, to the detriment of two-wheelers. Overall, the relevance of emissions from powered two-wheelers is not negligible when compared with modern gasoline-powered passenger cars.

And from their Discussion:
Several comparisons show that the powered two-wheelers onthe market in 2001 produced significantly higher emissions of all pollutants except CO2 than gasoline-powered passenger cars from the same sales period. Whether in a direct comparison of mean unit emissions (in g/km), mean yearly emissions (in kg/vehicle/year), or fleet emissions (in tons/year), the two-wheelers’ HC and CO emissions were all, and often significantly, higher. In addition, the NOx contribution of the motorcycle fleet is roughly one-fifth that of the car fleet and is thus not negligible.
CO emissions may cause local health problems and further oxidize to CO2, contributing to the greenhouse effect.
However, limit values have not been exceeded in Switzerland for several years, with the result that this gas has become less significant. The situation is different for HC. The HC values used here are the sum of unburned hydrocarbons. Some of them contribute to the greenhouse effect, while others have been proven to be carcinogenic or to contribute to ozone formation. It was shown that powered two-wheelers emit substantially more HC than passenger cars. The significant ratios in the urban pattern (222 for mean unit emissions , 49 for yearly vehicle emissions, and 16 for yearly fleet emissions) are mainly caused by two-cycle machines, which emit more HC than motorcycles with four-cycle engines (1, 2, 13). However, the use of technologies similar to those employed in cars such as regulated three-way catalytic converters with fuel injection (vehicles 7 and 8) does not
yield similar results either. It must be assumed that work on implementing the lambda control loop has not been performed with the same care as for cars.
It has to be stressed again that all the comparisons discussed here are subject to the uncertainties mentioned above. From a purely statistical point of view these seem to be unacceptably large, but as the vehicles are intentionally chosen to represent the variety of the fleet with regard to engine size, manufacturer, technical solutions etc., the results
appear to be fairly representative of the fleet.

Overall, emissions from motorcycles have become relevant compared to those from modern passenger cars. Even if they account for a comparatively small number of vehicles, motorcycles’ impact on traffic emissions cannot be overlooked. Directive 2002/51/EC of the European Parliament and Council is a step in the right direction. With the introduction in 2006 of new emissions limits which are intended to correspond to Euro 3 gasoline cars, and with checking procedures for the correct operation of emission control systems, motorcycle emissions are expected to decrease. However, the fact that more than half of the twowheelers failed the statutory test is indicative of the need for periodical inspection and maintenance. With regard to this study, the introduction of similar regulations as for passenger cars such as checking the durability of the aftertreatment system and periodic testing of exhaust gases should be considered. It would therefore be expedient to repeat this study two to three years after introduction of the new rules.

[Dead_Parrot]

13. That sounds like assorted particulates...

...caused by incomplete combustion, which in terms or corpses is a major problem (certainly 4 orders of magnitude over deaths from chernobyl). This is certainly something that needs to be looked at by bike makers, but if bikes shift a person for for less CO₂ than a car, it's got to be a bonus.

FWIW, CO oxidises to CO₂ fairly quickly, so unless you reach toxic levels of CO the two are equivalent.

[lindisfarne]

14. The discussion says the motorcycles all exceeded cars for CO and HC.

Whether in a direct comparison of mean unit emissions (in g/km), mean yearly emissions (in kg/vehicle/year), or fleet emissions (in tons/year), the two-wheelers’ HC and CO emissions were all, and often significantly, higher. In addition, the NOx contribution of the motorcycle fleet is roughly one-fifth that of the car fleet and is thus not negligible. CO emissions may cause local health problems and further oxidize to CO2, contributing to the greenhouse effect.

[Dead_Parrot]

15. I guess it depends on your priorities

I admit to being a carbon-nazi (I'm normally accused of being a nuke-nazi, but there's a difference, honest :)): killing 700,000/year through particulates will pale into insignificance beside 10,000,000/year from climate change.

Who was worse, Pol Pot or Hitler?
Depends on how you measure it....

:(

[lindisfarne]

16. Getting rid of a good percent of greenhouse gases from the transportation

sector would go a long way to solving the problem. In the US, we could do this in part through higher fuel efficiency, alternative fuels for transportation, more efficient engines, and requiring that all US vehicles have emissions standards which exceed current CA ULEV standards. Cutting greenhouse gases from the power industry would help as well.

"In most countries, over 90% of the global warming potential of the direct-acting greenhouse gases from the transportation sector comes from carbon dioxide. The transportation sector is responsible for approximately 17% of global carbon dioxide emissions and these emissions are increasing in virtually every part of the world."
http://www.adb.org/vehicle-emissions/General/Environment-climate.asp

Breakdown for US transportation sector:
http://www.ecobridge.org/content/g_cse.htm\
About 20% of U.S carbon dioxide emissions comes from the burning of gasoline in internal-combustion engines of cars and light trucks (minivans, sport utility vehicles, pick-up trucks, and jeeps).US Emissions Inventory 2004 Vehicles with poor gas mileage contribute the most to global warming. For example, according to the E.P.A's 2000 Fuel Economy Guide, a new Dodge Durango sports utility vehicle (with a 5.9 liter engine) that gets 12 miles per gallon in the city will emit an estimated 800 pounds of carbon dioxide over a distance of 500 city miles. In other words for each gallon of gas a vehicle consumes, 19.6 pounds of carbon dioxide are emitted into the air. <21> A new Honda Insight that gets 61 miles to the gallon will only emit about 161 pounds of carbon dioxide over the same distance of 500 city miles. ...

Carbon Dioxide from Trucks
About another 13% of U.S carbon dioxide emissions comes from trucks used mostly for commercial purposes.<20>

Carbon Dioxide from Airplanes
The UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change estimates that aviation causes 3.5 percent of global warming, and that the figure could rise to 15 percent by 2050.

[Dead_Parrot]

17. sounds about right...

..I'd question US transportation being only 20%, but I have no apposite figures to chuck out... :D

[lindisfarne]

11. I found a motorcycle website and indeed, even the worst are in the 30s

http://www.totalmotorcycle.com/MotorcycleFuelEconomyGuide/index.htm

And the best are quite a bit more (>70 mpg). The people reporting are probably a little better about engine upkeep but still, these are much better than I'd been led to believe. They do seem to get a lot less efficient quickly with age but I'm not sure what the 2 guys I know with motorcycles have done to theirs if their claim of 20 mpg is correct. (I'm sure they don't know much about the engines).

[Dead_Parrot]

8. Sounds fair...

Bikes aren't for everyone (You wouldn't catch me giving my 2-year-old a lift to the playgroup on a Norton) but then most people seem to be happy to drive a SUV with just themselves on-board: By definition, a bike is always at 100% occupancy, and sometimes 200%. If you can get 50mpg with a pillion passenger, that really should be 'rewarded' somehow (apart from having more fun, that is ;))

Related question: Can bikes use the assorted carpool/high occupancy lanes? it's not like they are running with 3 spare seats...

[Kolesar]

18. Toyota is against tougher fuel economy standards, too ... eom