Let's look at that foolish, foolish statement.

[kristopher]

China's factories manufacture 35GWp of solar panels each year right now.

Each year's worth of those panels panels will produce the same amount of electricity as 7 or 8 large nuclear power plants.

So in the 12 years it optimally takes to plan and build a single nuclear fission reactor, the amount of now existing factory capacity in China alone will manufacture enough panels to equal the output of between 84 - 96 nuclear power plants.

The buildup of renewable manufacturing is just getting started.

Within ten years it is hoped/expected/thought that global solar manufacturing capacity will hit 1000GWp/year.

And that is just solar.

We do not need any more idiotic fissioning Rube Golberg Machines to boil water.

[FBaggins]

1. Your future fantasies are not the same thing as reality.

You really don't have any idea how many solar panels they're going to build, let alone where they will be installed and how much power they will generate.

[kristopher]

2. So China spent all that money over the last 4 years to NOT produce panels.

You've gone off the deep end with that bit of logic...

35GWp of solar manufacturing capacity ALREADY in place in China.

Fukushima.

[FBaggins]

3. They've spent ever more building reactors

Are you certain that they'll build them out completely?

How many are they starting each year?

35GWp of solar manufacturing capacity ALREADY in place in China.

Which does NOT equal the power generation of 7-8 large reactors. Not even close. Not unless they're all going to be installed in Arizona. If it's Germany it looks more like half that many.

[kristopher]

5. The potential of real mass production is starting to sink in, isn't it.

You are so used to thinking of "mass production" in the phony terms of the fission industry the reality of it actually is a surprise to you, isn't it.

We do not need nuclear fission Rube Goldberg machines to boil water.

If China's existing factories manufacture 35GW of solar panels each year those panels will produce the equivalent electricity of about 7 or 8 large nuclear power plants.

So in 12 years, the amount of now existing factory capacity in China alone will manufacture enough panels to equal the output of between 84 - 96 nuclear power plants.

[FBaggins]

8. Nope... but your lack of connection to the real world is becoming more apparent.

So in 12 years, the amount of now existing factory capacity in China alone will manufacture enough panels to equal the output of between 84 - 96 nuclear power plants.

You aren't even close.

[FBaggins]

4. Can you document that 35GWp capacity already in place claim?

Last I read, the expected worldwide production for this year was going to be a bit over half of that.

[kristopher]

6. Yes I do.

But you can look it up yourself if you want to challenge it.

[FBaggins]

7. A simple "No" would have sufficed. You can't. Because it isn't true.

I think what happened was you read a poorly translated article that talked about a 15GWp figure and a 19GWp "increase to above" and added them together (and rounded up).

15GWp was not China's capacity... it was (roughly) the worldwide production capacity that they expected to expand to 19 GWp (I've also seen 20) by the end of this year.

That's light-years away from China alone already producing 35 GWp.

[kristopher]

9. You just keep right on rationalizing the truth away.

That is what nuclear fission supporters do...

I told you what was going to happen when China changed the law requiring grid operators to buy all renewable electricity BEFORE they buy coal/nuclear.

I told you it was going to cause a rush to renewables because investors want to put their money into generation that is at the front of the line to be purchased.

This is what that looks like in the real world.

I really don't give a flying fig if you believe it or not.

[FBaggins]

10. Nope. You keep making the "truth" up.

I don't think you're lying... I think you're a bit deluded.

http://www.iceach.com/htm_news/2010-9/6526_293416.htm

China's solar production capacity is a very small fraction of what you claimed it was. The world's capacity isn't close to what you claimed China's was. China doesn't even expect to have that much installed at home for decades.

[kristopher]

11. ROFL

In other words you can't do research so it must be false. That's the Baggy we all know...

[FBaggins]

12. I gave you a link... where's yours?

I can give you several.

Can you provide ONE?

[kristopher]

14. Ok you gave a link

Here is the content of your link.

CMIC (China Market Intelligence Center) recently released: in 2009, despite the global economic experience of the international financial crisis, the global photovoltaic industry maintained rapid and healthy development momentum, its vitality and more powerful, more of its strategic position important. As the importance of renewable energy applications, solar photovoltaic power generation in the past 10 years has been rapid development. The last 10 years, the global solar cell production average annual growth rate was 48.5%; and last 5 years, this data is as high as 55.2%. In 2009, global solar cell production reached 10.5GWp, up 33% over the previous year. Visible, although the PV industry between 2008-2009 by the international financial crisis, but still the process of rapid growth. As of the end of 2009, total global installed solar capacity has reached 24.5GWp. In a variety of renewable energy applications, the photovoltaic power generation growth is most rapid. From 2000 to 2009, and net annual average growth rate of PV 60%; and net solar photovoltaic power generation in all applications in the share of 50% in 2001 to grow to about 90% in 2009 . The world's major developed countries have set the PV 2020 roadmap, by 2020, European countries PV installed capacity will reach 400GWp, the U.S. installed capacity will reach 300GWp.

In 2009, global solar cell production output of the top 10 companies combined to 5612.3MWp, 56% of total global output. Among them, the world's top 10 companies in four from China, namely Suntech, Yingli, JA, and TRW, the four companies in total output in 2009 was 2088.3MWp. China's solar cell production in 2009 reached 4GWp, accounting for 40% of the global total, ranking first in the world. CMIC analysts expect the global solar cell production in 2010 will reach 15.2GWp, 2011 will be a year or more to 19GWp. In recent years, China PV industry chain, to be coordinated and rapid development, equipment and raw materials to accelerate the localization process. However, China's PV market is still slow. In 2009, China's installed capacity of solar cells is only 160MWp, only 4% of national output that year, only the world's current installed capacity of 2.4%. As of the end of 2009, China's total installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation is only 300MW. Along with the continuous production of silicon materials release, CMIC analysts believe the market to open up the domestic PV applications imminent, it has become the key to the development of photovoltaic industry. LT1352CS8 is the number for products that is related with integrated circuit.

If that is the type data you want to put your faith in, you go right ahead. We already know that you are dedicated to spinning everything for the fission industry anyway so it really doesn't matter what you hear, your only objective is to put it into the corporate narrative supporting nuclear.

But the reality of what is happening isn't amenable to spin. this isn't a matter of public opinion, it is dollars and cents and the reality fo a world hungry for energy right now.
China's progress on solar isn't remarkable or in any way unbelievable; it is precisely what is expected with the change in the grid purchase priority law I told you about.

[FBaggins]

15. Just making yourself look even more foolish here Kris.

I've given you a couple more links since then... and can give you several more. I picked that one because I think it's the english version of the article that caused you to get this wrong in the first place.

Have you got ONE???

http://www.altenergymag.com/news/2011/04/12/navigant-releases-annual-pv-manufacturer-shipments-capacity--competitive-analysis-report/19798

Time to admit that you didn't have a clue what you were talking about.

[kristopher]

18. You don't understand, do you?

You are a person that is intent on nothing but distortion and spin. You are on a mission to derail any discussion that you think hurts the financial prospects of the nuclear fission industry. You have unceasingly violated the norms of polite discussion and interactive social behavior in an effort to control all discussion on this forum while you literally sneer at valid evidence and truth.

I told you I'm not going to give you a link and that if you want to challenge the information, then go for it. You've done that, and I've bookmarked the thread. Now I will repeat it yet again, China is going to hit 35GWp of manufacturing capacity this year; all built since 2007. And you are going to be faced with even more by the end of 2012 and more still by 2013. Every year that number is going to continue to rise and every year each of those factories is going to crank out another round of panels that will keep making power for 30+ years.

Meanwhile the amount of global capacity in Rube Goldbergian fission generators is going to be at best stagnant, and most likely declining.


Continuing to work on public opinion isn't going to help you; nuclear is just a bad choice.

[FBaggins]

19. I do... you've gone off the deep end.

Now I will repeat it yet again, China is going to hit 35GWp of manufacturing capacity this year

And you're flat wrong. The whole world isn't going to be much over half that amount.

Repeating a falsehood doesn't make it any more true kris... it makes you look unhinged.

I told you I'm not going to give you a link

Because you can't. There is no such link. In fact... I've already GIVEN you your link. You just read it wrong... probably from a poor google translation. You took the existing 15.2 worldwide number and assumed it refered to China alone... then you saw the rapid growth figure for the coming year (19) and added the two together.

It's sloppy... but entirely consistent with your M.O.

Do you think there's a SINGLE person on E/E who will read your bluster and think "I bet kris could prove it if he really wanted to... he's just not going to" ??

And the notion that you even think it's possible to get to 1,000 GWp annually in ten years just shows how disconnected you've become from reality.

And you are going to be faced with even more by the end of 2012 and more still by 2013.

Actually, no. Word is that they're cutting back because world demand hasn't ramped up nearly as rapidly as their production capacity. Fukushima will no doubt help, but expectations are the 2H2011 isn't looking good.

[kristopher]

20. Sorry baggy you are wrong.

It is personal with you and your methods. Sweat, balls etc; I'm sure you've heard the expression.

It isn't about winning a point, it is about you being obnoxious.

[FBaggins]

22. Think anyone here buys that ?

Anyone at all?

You really think anyone believes that you could back up your BS but simply choose not to?

I know that neither one of us believes it. :rofl:

[FBaggins]

13. Another link

Manufacturers in China/Taiwan increased capacity by 125% in 2010 over 2009, with shipments growing by 154% and capacity utilization of 79%. The manufacturers in this region had 53% of global capacity and 54% of shipments. If all expected expansions take place, capacity, now at 11.9GWp, is expected to increase by 50-70% in 2011 for manufacturers in China and Taiwan.

China, Taiwan fab majority of PV, capturing more share in 2011

So let's see. If they're able to maintain their capacity utilization and expand by the full 70% (unlikely), that would put them at less than half of where you claimed they already were.

What a shock. Kris made something up and them spammed it as proof of other positions on several threads.

So... at an average 15% capacity factor, their current production would replace about one large reactor per year.

And how many reactors are they building per year?


Another interesting read that I'm sure you'll ignore... and by tomorrow will not even remember that you saw it.

Prices of PV products may fall due to oversupply.

[kristopher]

16. 35GWp by the end of 2011.

It will either be true or it will not be true. Your antics on behalf of the nuclear industry are not going to change it one whit of a watt.

[FBaggins]

17. It won't be true... and you didn't claim "by the end of 2011"

You said it's what they had NOW and they were continuing to expand. You said "China's factories manufacture 35GWp of solar panels each year right now." You further went on to say that "Within ten years it is hoped/expected/thought that global solar manufacturing capacity will hit 1000GWp/year."


The entire WORLD capacity doesn't come close to even that 35GWp...and right now their overcapacity has caused a glut in supply that they're really worried about. Fukushima actually gave them a breath of hope that they might be able to clear some of their excess supply.

You made it up out of whole cloth... and now you know it.

It's time to fess up.

Come on... tell us where you got the 35 GWp figure from that you've been spamming. Was it in a dream?

And for the record... I think that the 1,000 GW figure is not an annual manufacturing goal, but a total INSTALLED label capacity goal... and for much longer than 10 years from now. I'm thinking 2050.

[kristopher]

21. Are you familiar with the Grid Parity by 2020 goal announced for solar

How, precisely do you think that is envisioned to come about? You know, what mechanism is going to reduce the price of solar produced electricity to below that of coal?

[FBaggins]

23. By overproducing so they have to sell it at a loss?

What connection could you possibly make between a price point target and a specific production level? There were some who were touting grid parity by last year as recently as year or so prior to that.

You claimed that this is how much they're producing right now.

You were full of it and we both know it.

Time to be a man kris.