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I think a lot of the wait-until-the-last-minute voters will just pick one of the frontrunners, and Dean will be prime there. Besides, we at the meetups are writing to a lot of them to give him name recognition.
In the South, we have an interesting situation. Several Black leaders, including Jessie Jackson Jr. have endorsed Dean as their man to beat. This of course angered Sharpton, so he's attacking Dean, feeling betrayed by Jessie. He knows they compete for the same class of voters, liberals and blacks.
Typically, it is probably true that the blacks will vote for a southern candidate, like Clark or Edwards, just like many of the Whites. Consider what will happen when the higher concentrations of blacks in the South vote in large numbers for Sharpton, or for the recommended Dean. Sharpton and Braun will sap votes away from Clark and Edwards. Dean receiving some of those votes, along with many of us liberal Southernors (not an oxymoron, really we aren't all stupid)will have a pretty good chance for these reasons to win even some Southern candidates. By bringing up the economic message to the poor South, having never quite recovered from the Civil War really, he might even get some of their votes. We can only hope the racism can die, and that some of the poorest Dixie dogs will decide to vote for the party that will help them the most, rather than the party of racism, the republicans.
Anyway, I certainly don't see Dean as a lost cause, and I think he has a wonderful chance of not only winning the 2004 election, but perhaps he can even win a Southern state or two. I'll tell you how he won't win the South, is if he ignores the South in his campaign.
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