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Not that you don't put forth some good ideas, but I just went through this.
We're 10 miles north of the gulf on a bay. There's a big barrier island (inhabited) between us and the gulf. We have already decided that we'll stay if it's a 3 or less. Even if it's a direct hit. Our house has survived that and worse.
When I went to bed Saturday night, Katrina was a high2-low 3. Probably going in around NO Monday morning. When I got up Sunday morning it was a 4 going to 5. By Sunday it's too late to go. Saturday was the day to make the decision. By Sunday roads are clogged, all rooms east of us were booked. I'd rather be here in any kind of hurricane than on a highway somewhere. So by Sunday, we were committed.
Also, hurricanes are notoriously unpredictable. Especially during the last few hours before landfall. Sure, you can tell pretty early on if it's going to hit South Carolina instead of the Florida panhandle. But especially when one comes into the "amphitheater" of the Gulf of Mexico, it's a crapshoot where it winds up.
With a change of just a few degrees in its path it could have gone to Mexico, or Mobile. If it had gone into Mobile I probably wouldn't be writing this.
On the other hand, if you evacuated 3 or 4 days before it hits, you'd spend a lot of time away from home and a lot of money on motels, gas, and food, needlessly.
You make your best guess. We evacuated for Dennis, and it was a non-event here. We evacuated for Ivan, which was a direct hit. The eastern eye wall passed directly over my house. Damage to the structure was very minimal. Mainly just to an attached screened porch.
Again, you evaluate and make your best guess. Sometimes you guess right, and sometimes you don't. On top of all that, I'm fortunate enough to be able (physically and financially) to evacuate. Some people just can't. Just my 2 cents. ;-)
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