Rape Rate Declining In U.S., Report Finds

[quaoar]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/06/18/AR2006061800610.html?sub=AR


Many Say Crime Often Goes Unreported

By David A. Fahrenthold
Washington Post Staff Writer
Monday, June 19, 2006; Page A01

The number of rapes per capita in the United States has plunged by more than 85 percent since the 1970s, and reported rape fell last year even while other violent offenses increased, according to federal crime data.

This seemingly stunning reduction in sexual violence has been so consistent over the past two decades that some experts say they have started to believe it is accurate, even if they cannot fully explain why it is occurring.

In 1979, according to a Justice Department estimate based on a wide-ranging public survey, there were 2.8 rapes for every 1,000 people. In 2004, the same survey found that the rate had decreased to 0.4 per thousand.

Many criminologists and victims' advocates say that these numbers could be a statistical mirage, because rape is still underreported and poorly understood. But others say they have been convinced that there is real improvement and that a devastating crime has been receding from American life.

[illflem]

1. see, abstinence is working, sez junior

[Psephos]

10. Abstaining from rape?

Heh heh. Now that's what I call abstinence.

Peace.

[cynatnite]

2. I'm more inclined to believe rapes go largely unreported...

Given how women are treated by lawyers and the media it makes sense.

[elehhhhna]

6. Victims can't afford the emergency room visit (evidence) let alone

the goddarn GAS to get there.

I'll bet rapes are actually WAY up. Un/under-employed guys probably tend to drink too much & rape is convenient and inesxpensive...

[LiberalFighter]

7. Could the proliferation of cell phones be a factor?

Did they just go by the number of reports or did they do a poll to back up the stats?

[Pastiche423]

9. Also given how some on this board

treat rape victims.

[treestar]

17. That their word is not taken at face value without cross examination?

If the victim is not willing to stand by her story, why should it be assumed it was rape?

I'm afraid the system can do no more without becoming a witch hunt.

I mean, what is the system supposed to do? Make an exception to the sixth amendment for rape accusations? I'm all for women having more power, but not that way.

[Doc_Technical]

3. "There are lies, there are damned lies, and there are statistics."

-Samuel Clemens.

[applegrove]

4. This is demographics. Fewer young people to do crime in NYC - and

Guilianni took credit for this.

You are right. They will claim it is abstinence.

[melnjones]

5. Um...

"But others say they have been convinced that there is real improvement and that a devastating crime has been receding from American life."

And that makes a big difference to individual rape survivors...how? The underreporting problem is a big issue, and it's irritating that they would cling to some seemingly positive statistics so quickly. I also have to wonder if these statistics include child abuse involving young children. Including them, the statistics should be far higher no matter where you are talking about.

[WildClarySage]

8. This administration has been found to boost their stats

by redefining terms in the past, and I wouldn't be at all surprised if this 'reduction' reflects this pattern also. I have a very hard time believing that with all the social risk factor rates (poverty, lack of governmental and social support for the empowerment of women, etc) that rapes are occurring less frequently. I'm not surprised that in 20+ years the incidents are down, but I'm absolutely convinced that it's up from 2000 to now.

My professional guess (I used to work as a sexual assault counselor) is that reporting is down while incidents are up. Women are not being educated to understand that rape is any unwanted sexual contact. The Kobe Bryant and Duke University cases have convinced large numbers of young people that if alcohol is present, it's not really rape. It's not rape if she's had sex before (especially recently or 'often'). It's not rape if she led him on... or if she knew him... or had sex with him in the past...

What many people consider to be rape has been diminished by those who seek to control others using shame and guilt as weapons. So many women aren't getting help for assaults that they don't define for themselves as rape, even though they also suffer emotional damage, compounded by guilt from the sense of personal responsibility that society places squarely on the victim.

[daleo]

11. The article says this is based on survey data, not police reports

I would think that anonymous victim surveys would be pretty reliable over time. If anything, rape is somewhat less stigmatized now than it was 30 years ago, so victims should be more willing to report their experiences in anonymous surveys.

"One measure is the Justice Department's National Crime Victimization Survey, which asks thousands of respondents 12 and older about crimes that have happened to them. This survey, which is meant to capture offenses that weren't reported to police, is the one that depicted the 85 percent decline in the per-capita rape rate since 1979."

I am inclined to think recent generations have been socialized somewhat better when it comes to sexual matters. For example, acceptance of homosexuality is far higher now than it was 30 years ago. In short, more liberal (less repressive) attitudes toward sexual matters makes people more civilized.

That's not to say there isn't room for improvement.

On edit - A fair chunk of the per-capita decline is also due to population aging. There were a lot of 20 year old baby boomers in 1979.

[snot]

12. Is it possible that some kind of enlightenment

is helping?

E.g., I think 30 years ago, a number of beliefs were more prevalent that tended to condone rape -- that men are naturally deficient in self-control, this was a crime of impetuosity that should be overlooked, that women should just "relax and enjoy it," that gals who dressed provocatively or put themselves in certain situations were "asking for it", that men were entitled to believe that a woman who said no might really mean yes, etc. etc.

Feminism and other trends have de-legitimized a lot of these ideas.

[ovidsen]

13. Maybe this report is valid?

I see some DUers here are dismissing this report out of hand because they assume...

1. Rapes are still underreported because of asshat lawyers and the media

2. This study is from the Justice Department, and you can't trust it

3. Rising numbers of unemployed or underemployed men drink and then rape

4. Women are still reluctant to admit to themselves, let alone the cops that they've been raped

Let's play devils advocate here

1. This study isn't based on police reports, it's an anonymous survey. Women who are rape victims don't have to fear being dragged through the dirt here if they answer yes. Furthermore, more women are more likely to call a rape what it really is. It wasn't too long ago that the term "date rape" didn't even exist!

2. Just because this is from the Justice Department doesn't mean it's a lie. A Justice Department controlled by RePukes with an agenda would have several reasons to fabricate an increase in rapes. It would be a sign of society's "degeneration" (via porn, Howard Stern and wardrobe malfunctions) and evidence that more laws are needed to control "deviants".

3. Well, we all know that men are beasts and really want to rape indiscriminately to satisfy their animal desires, right? (sarc off) Isn't this an extremely hasty and (dare I say it) sexist conclusion to reach? More than ever before, Americans (women AND men) are now aware that NO MEANS NO. That message has been all over the MSM for the last 20 years. It's not only made women less afraid to report a rape, but it's made the minority of men who may still think that forcing sex on someone is no big deal realize that to almost everyone else, it's a really goddamn great big deal.

4. I think this is the biggest false generalization of all here. I think that today, nearly everyone can accurately define rape and and a much higher number of women are unwilling to keep it a secret. Once again, credit women's groups and crime victim organizations for correcting the grave misconception among both rapists and rape victims that "it was her fault" because of the way she dressed, where she was, what time she was there, whether she was drunk or not, and so on. I think the number of women who think rape is a humiliation that must be kept secret is way down. And for those who still do, shield laws do help protect their identity. While I'm sure that if I googled enough, I could find the name of the woman who says she was raped by the Duke lacrosse team, the fact remains that her name is not public knowledge. Rape is no longer the dirty little secret that it once was.


Just as the campaign against drunk driving and stricter enforcement of DWI laws has convinced most of us that driving drunk IS more serious than littering, so has the multitude of rape education programs made most Americans realize that 1) Rape is not a victimless crime committed against someone who "deserved" it, and 2) There are no exceptions to rule #1.

Instead of reflexively dismissing the mere notion that the incidence of this awful crime is actually on the decline, why can't we celebrate what could be a genuine victory for human decency?

[Skittles]

14. why we can't celebrate

we are women and we know better; we know men have not evolved since 1970 so we are more inclined to be suspicious of such a report

[TheVirginian]

21. Bad news is celebrated; Good news is dismissed. Welcome to DU!

[CAcyclist]

23. I agree, I'm a woman who goes out a lot by myself

and dates lots of different men and I think these stats are consistent with my experiences.

[heliarc]

25. You've been raped 85 percent less often as before??? [sarcasm] n/t

[Biernuts]

15. Did the survey include prisons?

If not, they missed the locations where the vast majority of rapes occur in the US. While incarcerated men commit most rapes, other male inmates are the usual victim.

Reporting? An inmate reporting is would fall into the snitch category - an endangered species since their throats are cut if they reach informer status.

[treestar]

16. Good news, maybe 911 changed something for the better.

I mean, after all, it is 911 that changed everything.

:sarcasm:

People who don't report are speculative as to numbers.

[donsu]

18. In no way do I believe this report

nt

[VegasWolf]

19. Good if true. nt

[ThomCat]

20. If true, I would love to attribute this to Feminism

going mainstream. Insisting that rape really is wrong, that it isn't just sex, and that women are people is revolutionary all things considered. It would be awesome if people are listening.

[Lars39]

22. If the number of rapes is declining,

then women won't need that exception-for-rape clause in all of the trigger abortion bills. :sarcasm:

[Megahurtz]

24. If the report is true

(and that's the big if)

then it could be because the cops are going after these guys more now than they did in the past.