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Democratic Primaries

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(81,716 posts)
Fri Jul 19, 2019, 05:47 PM Jul 2019

NYT: Trump's Electoral College Edge Could Grow in 2020, Rewarding Polarizing Campaign [View all]


Trump's Electoral College Edge Could Grow in 2020, Rewarding Polarizing Campaign
Re-election looks plausible even with a bigger loss in the national popular vote.
By Nate Cohn
July 19, 2019


Many assume that the huge turnout expected in 2020 will benefit Democrats, but it’s not so straightforward. It could conceivably work to the advantage of either party, and either way, higher turnout could widen the gap between the Electoral College and the popular vote.

That’s because the major Democratic opportunity — to mobilize nonwhite and young voters on the periphery of politics — would disproportionately help Democrats in diverse, often noncompetitive states.

The major Republican opportunity — to mobilize less educated white voters, particularly those who voted in 2016 but sat out 2018 — would disproportionately help them in white, working-class areas overrepresented in the Northern battleground states.

If everyone who was eligible to vote turned up at the polls, the gap between the Sun Belt and Rust Belt would close. Texas, astonishingly, would emerge as the tipping-point state. Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, by contrast, would barely budge.

Of course, a full-turnout election is not going to happen. In recent months, analysts have speculated about a 70 percent turnout among eligible voters, up from 60 percent in 2016.

In this kind of high-turnout presidential election, by our estimates, the tipping-point state would drift to the right as people who voted in 2016 but not in 2018 return to the electorate and nudge states like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin toward the president. At the same time, the Sun Belt would drift left. Arizona could overtake Wisconsin as the tipping-point state. But even in this hypothetical high-turnout election, the president’s approval rating in Arizona would be higher than it was in 2018 in Wisconsin. It becomes harder for the Democrats to win the presidency.

In such an election, the tipping-point state could have a net approval rating that is five points higher than the president’s national net approval rating, potentially allowing the president to win re-election while losing the popular vote by a wide margin.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for:
Joe Biden
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Something we all need to keep in mind.... brandnewday2009 Jul 2019 #1
All the more important to win the Senate and retain the House. NT SayItLoud Jul 2019 #2
Go too far to the left and voters will vote for the, 'devil they know...' Kahuna7 Jul 2019 #3
Somewhat disagree if..fish..had..wings Jul 2019 #7
Ok. Whatever. You missed the entire point. Nixon was the devil we knew... Kahuna7 Jul 2019 #11
Sorry if..fish..had..wings Jul 2019 #13
Precisely NYMinute Jul 2019 #16
Agree completely!! Thekaspervote Jul 2019 #23
Still want that "revolution"? Dream Girl Jul 2019 #4
Yep, he will lose the popular vote but win the Electoral College, again donkeypoofed Jul 2019 #5
Ain't happening The Mouth Jul 2019 #9
and why IS that? not_the_one Jul 2019 #33
Wise words. eom BlueWI Jul 2019 #34
It's actually 38 states, not 32 Polybius Jul 2019 #36
Yes. The Mouth Jul 2019 #38
The 2016 election was held under the (more or less) watchful eye of Obama's Justice Dept. Girard442 Jul 2019 #6
' higher turnout could widen the gap between the Electoral College and the popular vote.' elleng Jul 2019 #8
This is very sobering...we can't afford a 'revolution' right now 5starlib Jul 2019 #10
+1000 NYMinute Jul 2019 #18
We need to give young people a reason to turn out Fiendish Thingy Jul 2019 #21
52.1% of the 18-24 yr old vote turned out in 1972. Cattledog Jul 2019 #28
18-24 year olds are a bigger percentage of the population than in 1972 Fiendish Thingy Jul 2019 #32
Nixon successfully turned McGovern (a WW II hero awarded the Distinguished Flying Cross) Cattledog Jul 2019 #27
Im sorry Butterflylady Jul 2019 #12
Thanks; hopeful. elleng Jul 2019 #15
Thank you!! A voice of sanity!! Thekaspervote Jul 2019 #24
So where is this horde of Trump voters coming from?? Vogon_Glory Jul 2019 #29
Sorry but a lot of people who voted for dump in 2016 will not make that mistake again. onecaliberal Jul 2019 #14
That doesn't mean they'll vote for the Democrat. nt Kahuna7 Jul 2019 #17
Would we win if 3rd party candidates would split their vote or just sit out? richsonpoordad Jul 2019 #19
Welcome to DU, richsonpoordad! calimary Jul 2019 #30
This is horse race simulating nonsense Fiendish Thingy Jul 2019 #20
And just think MFM008 Jul 2019 #22
Which is why I'm focusing on Senate and state races. Merlot Jul 2019 #25
If sanders is the nominee, then trump could win 45+ states Gothmog Jul 2019 #26
THank You NYT For Doing Your Best To Depress The Vote Me. Jul 2019 #31
What state will Trump win in 2020 that he didn't win in 2016? BannonsLiver Jul 2019 #35
If we did not have this electoral college nonsense, Trump would be tweeting to his dumb fans BeckyDem Jul 2019 #37
Kind of a shit analysis Bradical79 Jul 2019 #39
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