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Democratic Primaries

Celerity

(44,469 posts)

8. when a poll has large skew in the middle, the numbers at the top are more than likely off as well

Reply to DemocratSinceBirth (Reply #7)

Fri May 24, 2019, 05:53 PM

May 2019

Last edited Fri May 24, 2019, 06:30 PM - Edit history (1)

Especially noticeable is the trendline on the Echelon, it does not reflect the momentum that Harris and Warren are showing on a broad-based view of multiple other polls. Obviously Bernie and Biden are still one and two, but there is almost zero chance that all others are only at 5% or less. Biden looks overplumped in this one.

Echelon is a self-selecting online poll, those tend to be far less reliable. Just take a look at the one that shows Bernie tied with Biden.

Echelon sent off polls to 1005 people, and only 44.5% replied.

If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden

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Highlight:

New Poll **Biden's Lead Widens in Democratic Primary**Big Joe 38% Bernie 16% Mayor Pete 5% Liz 5% [View all] DemocratSinceBirth May 2019 OP

online poll, firm launched in summer of 2014 by top Republican digital strategist Patrick Ruffini Celerity May 2019 #1

Their findings for the top two mirror the A + Rated Monmouth Poll DemocratSinceBirth May 2019 #3

they do not mirror at all on Warren and Harris, literally shows them with less than half combined Celerity May 2019 #6

They got the top two right. DemocratSinceBirth May 2019 #7

when a poll has large skew in the middle, the numbers at the top are more than likely off as well Celerity May 2019 #8

I wish Warren could get more support. nt Lucky Luciano May 2019 #2

She was higher in the Quinn and Monmouth Poll. DemocratSinceBirth May 2019 #5

why not just post the reputable ones KayF May 2019 #9

I'm not convinced they're disreputable DemocratSinceBirth May 2019 #15

Biden has a great Team! Cha May 2019 #4

This isn't turning out to be Bernie's year, is it? NurseJackie May 2019 #10

I don't think Pete is going to get much of Bernie's supporters Tiggeroshii May 2019 #12

I seriously doubt that. It's not a very realistic expectation or prediction. NurseJackie May 2019 #14

I'm just saying Bernie isnt likely to lose much more support, but Joe is Tiggeroshii May 2019 #18

I am with you. NYMinute May 2019 #19

Good luck! Tiggeroshii May 2019 #20

Let's see how this lead goes after the next several debates. I will trust a poll in december far Tiggeroshii May 2019 #11

Looks lime momentum to me Cary May 2019 #13

This increase likely arose from Biden's performance at his launch rally where he simply shined - Skya Rhen May 2019 #16

The last primary votes will be cast about a year from now. CentralMass May 2019 #17

Super Tuesday is March 3rd. TwilightZone May 2019 #21