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2016 Postmortem
Showing Original Post only (View all)The "Electability" Argument Is Dead [View all]
The "Electability" Argument Is Dead: All the Polls Show Bernie Does Better Against GOP Than Hillary
You hear this a lot: "I would vote for Bernie, but he's just not electable. We need a candidate who can beat the GOP." Sounds reasonable enough, right? So I started digging into the data. And it turns out, that not only does Hillary not poll better against GOP candidates than Bernie, but Bernie consistently polls better than she does.
A quick note on methodology: I am using only pollsters that use live pollsters and include cell phones because they have the best track record. I am not including any internet pollsters because some people don't trust them for some reason, even though they also have a pretty good track record. Robo-pollsters like PPP, have the worst track record and are therefore not included, even though PPP has stated over and over that Sanders runs just as well as, or better than, Clinton. See here and here. Also, I am only using recent data: only polls since September.
Before I start, keep in mind that pollsters, in their infinite wisdom, were often polling Biden, a non-candidate in head to heads, but not Sanders. As a result, there are fewer general election polls testing Sanders. However, there are some early-state polls that test general election head to heads.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/10/27/1440343/-The-Electability-Argument-Is-Dead-All-the-Polls-Show-Bernie-Does-Better-Against-GOP-Than-Hillary
You hear this a lot: "I would vote for Bernie, but he's just not electable. We need a candidate who can beat the GOP." Sounds reasonable enough, right? So I started digging into the data. And it turns out, that not only does Hillary not poll better against GOP candidates than Bernie, but Bernie consistently polls better than she does.
A quick note on methodology: I am using only pollsters that use live pollsters and include cell phones because they have the best track record. I am not including any internet pollsters because some people don't trust them for some reason, even though they also have a pretty good track record. Robo-pollsters like PPP, have the worst track record and are therefore not included, even though PPP has stated over and over that Sanders runs just as well as, or better than, Clinton. See here and here. Also, I am only using recent data: only polls since September.
Before I start, keep in mind that pollsters, in their infinite wisdom, were often polling Biden, a non-candidate in head to heads, but not Sanders. As a result, there are fewer general election polls testing Sanders. However, there are some early-state polls that test general election head to heads.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2015/10/27/1440343/-The-Electability-Argument-Is-Dead-All-the-Polls-Show-Bernie-Does-Better-Against-GOP-Than-Hillary
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Not having the right qualities makes one not electable. A candidate has to have what it takes
Thinkingabout
Nov 2015
#2
Lol. He wanted to "leave them alone" till that lucrative MIC Contract changed hi$ mind.
misterhighwasted
Nov 2015
#22
And the biggest crack of all is bernies sellout of his NO vote for a YE$ Vote
misterhighwasted
Nov 2015
#27
Every party makes that calculation every election. There is no other way to operate.
stevenleser
Nov 2015
#17
I didn't miss it. I ignored the subjective stuff and concentrated on the factual stuff. nt
stevenleser
Nov 2015
#34
You're denying climate change and income inequality problems in one breath as "subjective"?
Hydra
Nov 2015
#39
yup...at least 10 DU'ers have said they will sit out the GE if Hillary is the nominee
Sheepshank
Nov 2015
#71
Nope, this article forgets one important thing that completely invalidates its results.
stevenleser
Nov 2015
#16
Candidate Obama was squeaky clean in comparison to any Republican in 2004 and 2008.
Sheepshank
Nov 2015
#72
And if a Bernie supporter feels that way about Hillary, and expresses it, then that is considered
djean111
Nov 2015
#53
All I can give a Sanders nomination is a pencil mark next to his name on the GE ballot.
MohRokTah
Nov 2015
#57
How does this explain explain how Sanders is viable in a general election contest?
Gothmog
Nov 2015
#62