2016 Postmortem

kenn3d

(486 posts)

36. Not sure any national polling correlates with "reality"

Thu Oct 8, 2015, 04:30 PM

Oct 2015

But I'll still offer my perspective...

Let's just consider the net trend over the last 2 months (as referred to above), defined by just the 4 data points for the 2 candidates starting at Aug 8 and ending today at Oct 8. You know, just eliminating those laggy smoothed curve lines altogether.
The following data is taken from the very exact same chart shown in the OP. No curves, no lags, no smoothing at all.
8/8 Clinton 52.0 Sanders 19.7
10/8 Clinton 43.6 Sanders 25.4
delta Clinton -8.4 Sanders +5.7
Net spread delta = Sanders +14.1 over 60 days.

Friends, this honestly doesn't reflect either a plateau or any significant change in the trends for either of these candidates since May... imo.
And btw, the latest rolly poll from Reuters which got added in this afternoon shows a negligible additional change of Clinton -2 / Sanders +2 since last week. But it doesn't really affect the chart or the spread, and based mainly on Godhumor's sound advice, I'm inclined to ignore that poll anyway.

Anything can happen.... GOTV!

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Uh oh, the Pollster.com trendline has finally caught up with reality [View all] Godhumor Oct 2015 OP

I don't think anyone cares ram2008 Oct 2015 #1

Second that jkbRN Oct 2015 #3

third that. we're about to enter a new phase. nt magical thyme Oct 2015 #4

I don't think anyone cares DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2015 #6

I'm sure we'll find out ram2008 Oct 2015 #7

Yes, we will find out. We have someone who has had several dozen national debates stevenleser Oct 2015 #14

It's called passion... ram2008 Oct 2015 #16

It's not passion. Its arrogance and impatience and he is known to have that personality. nt stevenleser Oct 2015 #17

The people seem to like his personality ram2008 Oct 2015 #18

The people rarely see it. We saw a little of it with his interaction with BLM. nt stevenleser Oct 2015 #19

People usually don't react well when others interrupt them and yell in their face... ram2008 Oct 2015 #20

You're supposed to react well if you expect to be at the national level. It's not about you. stevenleser Oct 2015 #21

I think he's been pretty consistent on the issues ram2008 Oct 2015 #23

Nice try at changing the subject. His personality will become clear during the six debates. stevenleser Oct 2015 #25

His personality is already evident Armstead Oct 2015 #46

You act like you've never seen the way Hillary acts. Fawke Em Oct 2015 #56

And what did we see when Clinton talked over a Latino protestor? jeff47 Oct 2015 #52

Oh, good grief. Hissyspit Oct 2015 #26

If this bothers you, tell it to Bernie. nt stevenleser Oct 2015 #29

Silly season. nt Hissyspit Oct 2015 #30

Yes, of course! Because no one has ever mentioned the idea of being Presidential before for stevenleser Oct 2015 #33

irritable, impatient and cranky frylock Oct 2015 #27

There it is again..... bkkyosemite Oct 2015 #31

Yep. nt stevenleser Oct 2015 #32

So you support the Rovian candidate, eh? The liar? I quote you below (emphasis mine) Luminous Animal Oct 2015 #35

We now have a lot more to go on regarding Hillary, don't we? We have six years of SecState stevenleser Oct 2015 #38

Do you repudiate your own reporting that Hillary lied about NAFTA? Luminous Animal Oct 2015 #39

LOL, if you are going to throw that kind of drama, give me time to pull out my violin. stevenleser Oct 2015 #40

That was a try. Luminous Animal Oct 2015 #41

So, what changed your mind about Hillary? Bernie as we now, and the public is finding out daily, sabrina 1 Oct 2015 #58

Lol! sabrina 1 Oct 2015 #57

What Bernie does not have time for a flip-flopping bullshit artist of a hack that calls himself.. Time_Lord Oct 2015 #59

Thats true workinclasszero Oct 2015 #9

Not likely since the more face time she gives the public, the less they like her. closeupready Oct 2015 #11

and then you can drink the lovely, lovely salt tears of the Sanders supporters! ish of the hammer Oct 2015 #15

This message was self-deleted by its author DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2015 #43

Then you woke up! DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2015 #44

woke up to what? ish of the hammer Oct 2015 #47

enjoy those salty tears DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2015 #48

that reminds me ish of the hammer Oct 2015 #49

My gf bought me that iconic photo framed DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2015 #50

Why does everyone assume the debates will make a significant difference? hack89 Oct 2015 #10

No kidding. zappaman Oct 2015 #37

There has actually been a lot of research... DemocratSinceBirth Oct 2015 #51

That same research shows primary debates have an effect jeff47 Oct 2015 #53

Yep. Iliyah Oct 2015 #2

An overlooked tidbit - 20% of voters made up their minds since Jan, and Hillary got ZERO of them. reformist2 Oct 2015 #5

Bernie had peaked and Hillary is in the lead upaloopa Oct 2015 #54

Take Biden off the poll.... BooScout Oct 2015 #8

...or perhaps they go DOWN. Who knows? Buns_of_Fire Oct 2015 #12

Agree that he shouldn't be included, but there are mountains of data that his support goes back to C Godhumor Oct 2015 #13

They go up. We know. Because the polling agencies ask the question. nt stevenleser Oct 2015 #34

no Rosa Luxemburg Oct 2015 #42

Hang on to that tbought while you still can. 99Forever Oct 2015 #22

Well Aerows Oct 2015 #24

Good, Hill will have a ton of confidence going into the debates. oasis Oct 2015 #28

Not sure any national polling correlates with "reality" kenn3d Oct 2015 #36

Here's another view with shorter date range clearly showing Bernie leveling off. DCBob Oct 2015 #45

Predictions are so hard though, especially about the future. kenn3d Oct 2015 #55