2016 Postmortem

HooptieWagon

(17,064 posts)

3. 50/50 this far out.

Reply to Tierra_y_Libertad (Original post)

Tue Sep 8, 2015, 03:41 PM

Sep 2015

What Bernie has going for him is increasing popular support for his policies, his lengthy track record in supporting those policies, his record of being 'right' on issues and votes well before his opponents had to 'evolve', and that's theres no ethics lapses to provide ammunition to his opponents.
What he has working against him is the vast Third Way machine, it's Wall St backers, and it's media...who, combined, have virtually unlimited resources and control of the levers of power like DNC chairmanship. They will go all out to keep a liberal populist candidate from gaining office and threatening corporate control of government.
Even so, despite the influence of money, it's still votes that count. Bernie stands a 50/50 chance right now. That can increase, we shall see.

Edit history

Please sign in to view edit histories.

42 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

At this moment what do you think Bernies chances of winning the nomination are? [View all] Tierra_y_Libertad Sep 2015 OP

Not high, but better than before and improving whatthehey Sep 2015 #1

I'm more optimistic. Went from longshot to maybe. Tierra_y_Libertad Sep 2015 #2

Bernie has a considerably higher upside hifiguy Sep 2015 #17

50/50 this far out. HooptieWagon Sep 2015 #3

I agree. I think he has a pretty good shot against the machine. Tierra_y_Libertad Sep 2015 #5

At this point, I'd say 35 - 40 percent. Armstead Sep 2015 #4

agreed Capn Sunshine Sep 2015 #31

Gotta go 90% Half-Century Man Sep 2015 #6

I wouldn't predict until after the first debate. Who knows, O'Malley could do such a great job seaglass Sep 2015 #7

That's why I said "at the moment". Tierra_y_Libertad Sep 2015 #8

OK, I don't have any evidence to predict now, only feelings and that seems like a stupid basis seaglass Sep 2015 #9

That's fine. I'm not chiding you. Tierra_y_Libertad Sep 2015 #10

But Sanders isn't the ABH candidate. Fawke Em Sep 2015 #19

Yes. It's so important to stress that Bernie's support is overwhelmingly positive RufusTFirefly Sep 2015 #26

25% chance of winning IA; 40% chance of winning NH; 10% chance of winning SC; downhill from there brooklynite Sep 2015 #11

You could be right. But, I don't think so. Tierra_y_Libertad Sep 2015 #13

His challenge is turning rally crowds and polling into actual votes... brooklynite Sep 2015 #16

Rally crowds is his advantage in Iowa. ieoeja Sep 2015 #18

...and this is precisely my point. brooklynite Sep 2015 #21

Message auto-removed Name removed Sep 2015 #25

50% Le Taz Hot Sep 2015 #12

First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win. Mahatma Gandhi Tierra_y_Libertad Sep 2015 #14

That same argument was used in 2008 Capn Sunshine Sep 2015 #32

100% sure hell win, but voted 90% due to the establishments Diebold advantage. NorthCarolina Sep 2015 #15

1% maybe? Garrett78 Sep 2015 #20

If his chances weren't good, they wouldn't spend so much effort and money Skwmom Sep 2015 #22

But that effort and money... Garrett78 Sep 2015 #23

A Corporate Democrat, a Corporate Republican - they deliver the same results. Skwmom Sep 2015 #24

Not precisely the same results. And voting still matters. But... Garrett78 Sep 2015 #29

So, President Gore would have been the exact same as President Bush? Capn Sunshine Sep 2015 #35

Marginally better than Andre Berto's chances of upsetting Floyd Mayweather this Saturday. DemocratSinceBirth Sep 2015 #27

He's following the a similar trajectory as Obama (but slightly better) CoffeeCat Sep 2015 #28

Obama won states that Sanders won't win. Garrett78 Sep 2015 #34

Yes, but Clinton had those same enormous national leads... CoffeeCat Sep 2015 #40

Obama was an upcoming rock star. Garrett78 Sep 2015 #42

It will be interesting to see what media does if Bernie marlakay Sep 2015 #41

My feelings is that Bernie will be our next President madokie Sep 2015 #30

About 10%. I wish I could give better odds. Vattel Sep 2015 #33

the GOPers will continue the McCarthyist campaign against HRC in Hopes that Bernie will be nominated Bill USA Sep 2015 #36

1-5% taught_me_patience Sep 2015 #37

Yep. Garrett78 Sep 2015 #38

37.25% and rising. TheKentuckian Sep 2015 #39