2014 US Senate Election.

[NPolitics1979]

22. 2014 US Senate Election including Vacancies in HI and MA.

Kerry(D-MA) is expected to be nominated and confirmed as US Secretary of State next month.
Under MA State law- the Govenor appoints the replacement and a special election to fill the seat takes place 150 days after the vacancy/appointment. The appointed Senator could or could not run in the upcoming special election.- The winner of the May/June 2013 Special Election in MA would then have a run again for a first full 6 year term in 2014.
Patrick(D-MA) is considering appointing either Vicki Kennedy or Michael Dukakis as caretaker appointes to the soon to be vacant Kerry seat- with a promise neither runs in the 2013/2014 Special Election. US House Members Ed Markey and Mike Capuano seek the Democratic nomination for the 2013/2014 Special Election- the winner of the Special Election will face Scott Brown-R in the General Election and the loser in the Democratic primary-remains in the US House. If Scott Brown-R were to win the 2013/2014 Special Election- then Deval Patrick- who is not seeking a 3rd term as Governor in 2014 or the loser of the Democratic primary in the 2013/2014 Special Election- (Capuano-D or Markey-D)- challenges and defeats Brown-R in the 2014 General Election.
Inouye(D-HI) sucessor. Abercrombie is likely to appoint first term US House Member Colleen Hanabusa to the Inouye Seat. If she is sworn in before Jan 2013- she will be HI Senior US Senator or If She is sworn in after Jan 2013- she will be HI Junior US Senator.
Hanubusa-D defeats Lingle-R in the 2014 Special Election.
DeMint(R-SC) sucessor, US Rep Tim Scott(R-SC) is favored to win the 2014 Special Election-assuming he does not get teabagged in the Republican primary by one of Strom Thurmond's sons.
Other US Senate Vacancies.
NJ(Lautenberg-D)-if Lautenberg is unable to complete his term which expires in 2014. Governor Chris Christie(R-NJ) will appoint the replacement-either ex NJ Govenor Christie Todd Whitman(R-NJ)- who then faces a tough General Election campaign in 2014 against either Newark Mayor Cory Booker(D-NJ)-assuming he loses to Christie in the 2013 Governors Race and decides against suceeding Christie in 2017 or US Reps Frank Pallone(D-NJ) or Robert Andrews(D-NJ).
IL(Kirk-R)-if Kirk-R is unable to complete his US Senate Term which expires in 2016- Governor Quinn(D-IL) could appoint a replacement to serve until the 2014 Special Election and the 2016 General Election. If Michelle Obama is suppose to be the Democratic Nominee for the US Senate in 2016- then Quinn should appoint a caretaker like Roland Burris-D who runs in the 2014 Special Election- then retires in 2016. otherwise he appoints Dan Hynes-D to the seat.
Republicans are favored to win.
AL(Sessions-R),GA(Chambliss-R or the Tea Party Candidate-R),ID(Risch-R),KS(Roberts-R),KY(McConnell-R),ME(assuming its Collins-R),MS(Cochran-R or Likely Republican Nominee-R),NE(Johanns-R),OK(Inhofe-R),SC(Graham-R or Tea Party Candidate-R),TN(Alexander-R),TX(Cornyn-R),and WY(Enzi-R) plus Democratic held seats in WV(Capito-R vs Rockefeller-D or Tennant-D or Rahall-D) and SD(Rounds-R vs Johnson-D or Herseth Sandlin-D)
Democrats are favored to win.
Safe- DE(Coons-D),IL(Durbin-D or Likely Democratic Nominee-D),MT(Baucus-D),NM(Udall-D),OR(Merkley-D),RI(Reed-D),and VA(Warner-D). NJ and MA belong in the safe DEM collumn.
Likely- CO(Udall-D),IA(Harkin-D or Likely Democratic Nominee-D),MI(Levin-D or Likely Democratic Nominee-D),MN(Franken-D),and NH(Shaheen-D)
Lean- AR(Pryor-D),LA(Landrieu-D),and NC(Hagan-D)
Tossup- AK(Begich-D)