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2016 Postmortem

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alcibiades_mystery

(36,437 posts)
Wed Nov 28, 2012, 01:49 AM Nov 2012

Turnout in Swing States Exceeds 2008 (!!) [View all]

One of the more interesting numbers emerging from the continuing count of the 2012 Presidential election is this one: .01%. That's the margin by which the 2012 total vote in 12 designated "swing states" exceeds the total vote in those states in the 2008 election. More precisely, in 2008, 44,659,370 total votes were tallied in the twelve swing states. In 2012, at the current count, 44,665,350 votes have been tallied - an increase of roughly 6,000 votes, with more, no doubt, to come.

Let me repeat this: more people in the twelve swing state voted in 2012 than voted in 2008. Moreover, Obama's lead in those states is larger than his national lead in percentage terms, and pretty damn large in raw terms, at 1,801,140. Obama won the twelve swing states by 1.8 million votes. Just as a measure, Bush won the entire country by only 3.01 million (on edit: originally stated 2.01 million) in 2004. Needless to say, Obama won every swing state but North Carolina. Obama's margin nationally is over 4.45 million.

This was an ass-kicking. Don't let anyone tell you Obama pulled one out in a squeaker. This was a downright ass-kicking.

The media always mistook Obama's support. They misrepresented it as "enthusiasm" (a polite way of saying "unthinking fanaticism&quot in 2008. When they didn't see the same in 2012, they assumed Obama had lost his support. Wrong. It was never "enthusiasm." In 2008 it was joyful determination, a rebirth of progressive principles. In 2012, it was grim determination, a recognition of the importance of those principles. And that was Obama's argument both times. People make too much of "spin," as if rhetoric means deception or dishonesty. Rhetoric is simply the art of argumentation - Obama made successful arguments about the direction the country should take, both times.

I'll repeat again: more people in the twelve swing state voted in 2012 than voted in 2008. Obama, for his part, zooms toward 65 million votes overall.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/lv?key=0AjYj9mXElO_QdHpla01oWE1jOFZRbnhJZkZpVFNKeVE

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Turnout in Swing States Exceeds 2008 (!!) [View all] alcibiades_mystery Nov 2012 OP
CNN says it is still tied. hrmjustin Nov 2012 #1
... BlueCaliDem Nov 2012 #6
Gallup says Romney is still up by 7 points in the national tracking poll of likely voters. yellowcanine Nov 2012 #13
Are they using the Ryan math again? LiberalFighter Nov 2012 #19
Obama may have made good arguments about the direction the country ought to be heading iemitsu Nov 2012 #2
Great post oswaldactedalone Nov 2012 #3
Thanks, I've sat on too many hiring committees iemitsu Nov 2012 #4
Awesome post! LukeFL Nov 2012 #20
Thanks. iemitsu Nov 2012 #23
Recommend! Remember the worry warts, for they babylonsister Nov 2012 #5
Great post! BlueCaliDem Nov 2012 #7
Looks like he'll be over 65 million this week davidpdx Nov 2012 #8
Unpopular president? union_maid Nov 2012 #9
You need to make sure you do arithmetic right. OhioworkingDem Nov 2012 #10
Done, thanks alcibiades_mystery Nov 2012 #11
CO...Smoking otohara Nov 2012 #12
Good news .. ProudProgressiveNow Nov 2012 #14
They must be counting the Ohio provisionals now alcibiades_mystery Nov 2012 #15
What is it in terms of % of eligible voters? DireStrike Nov 2012 #16
I don't have enough info to calculate for the swing states alcibiades_mystery Nov 2012 #17
Thank you for the info. DireStrike Nov 2012 #18
Also Sandy has a lot LukeFL Nov 2012 #21
Yes, that makes sense. JNelson6563 Nov 2012 #22
New York turnout still down something like 17% alcibiades_mystery Nov 2012 #24
Good!! I read some actually Cha Nov 2012 #25
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