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2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: If IBD (A- rated by Nate Silver) bombs on November 8th, please don't talk to me about 538 grades [View all]LAS14
(13,803 posts)78. Another way to think about tracking polls...
... is that when they change you know there's a very high probability that people are actually changing their minds, rather than this poll just happened to get a more pro-somebody group than the previous one. Thus, when IBD/TIPP shows Clinton now up by one, you can have a high confidence that people are changing their minds.
The other possibility is that some Trump people disappeared for some reason or another.
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If IBD (A- rated by Nate Silver) bombs on November 8th, please don't talk to me about 538 grades [View all]
molova
Oct 2016
OP
Quora has also said that the LA Time poll is statistically sound also as well as IBD
michiganman1019
Oct 2016
#1
Right.... Validated... That's utter tripe, especially for fracking LATime one.
Foggyhill
Oct 2016
#5
You are a bully! Any poster with less that 1000 posts you insult. And when....
ScienceIsGood
Oct 2016
#58
Actually, I think Nate is wrong about that and I don't respect him because he says such things.
Foggyhill
Oct 2016
#6
If IBD bombs on November 8th, I won't won't talk to him/her about 538 grades
IronLionZion
Oct 2016
#62
Welcome, but I don't think you are user "dangin" and their post is not updated. . . nt
Bernardo de La Paz
Oct 2016
#29
Right-There Are About 28 Polling Firms rated Higher and ALL of Them Have Clinton Leading
Stallion
Oct 2016
#65
You are welcome, but the Original Post did not pose a question. . . . nt
Bernardo de La Paz
Oct 2016
#46
I endorse rationality. It seems under-rated. Thanks for supporting! . . nt
Bernardo de La Paz
Oct 2016
#49
Regardless, Nate Silver has greater knowledge & insight about polling than me & I dare say you. . nt
Bernardo de La Paz
Oct 2016
#18
No. You are exhibiting a blind spot on this whole issue and not thinking clearly about it.
Bernardo de La Paz
Oct 2016
#28
Sam Wang's been better this season. Silver gave Trump a 2% chance of winning the Republican
Chathamization
Oct 2016
#41
I'm sure folks are just chasing you down to discuss the validity of Nate Silver's analysis of polls
bravenak
Oct 2016
#64
When math goes past 2+2 it often becomes very difficult for people to grasp. nt.
NCTraveler
Oct 2016
#74
me: "If Inflammatory Bowel Disease (A- rated by Nate Silver) bombs on November 8th..."
eShirl
Oct 2016
#82
i interpret Nate's grade to be the accuracy of the poll in picking out *trends*
0rganism
Oct 2016
#89