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2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: If IBD (A- rated by Nate Silver) bombs on November 8th, please don't talk to me about 538 grades [View all]Foggyhill
(1,060 posts)6. Actually, I think Nate is wrong about that and I don't respect him because he says such things.
Once a sample is non representative (which is demonstrated by its incredible variance and how much it is off from every other poll),
you can't unskew it or make any sense of it, the way he does.
It has nothing to do with liking or not liking, it gives no usable info.
The stats part becomes meaningless.
Collating polls with different methods (that itself varies) is already a pretty iffy proposition,
I don't even agree with the performance assessments in general.
There are not enough results from past polls to compare to actual results to have a high confidence in the fact those ratings are in any way meaningful. The ratings don't even seem to correlate with the soundness of the polling methodology.
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If IBD (A- rated by Nate Silver) bombs on November 8th, please don't talk to me about 538 grades [View all]
molova
Oct 2016
OP
Quora has also said that the LA Time poll is statistically sound also as well as IBD
michiganman1019
Oct 2016
#1
Right.... Validated... That's utter tripe, especially for fracking LATime one.
Foggyhill
Oct 2016
#5
You are a bully! Any poster with less that 1000 posts you insult. And when....
ScienceIsGood
Oct 2016
#58
Actually, I think Nate is wrong about that and I don't respect him because he says such things.
Foggyhill
Oct 2016
#6
If IBD bombs on November 8th, I won't won't talk to him/her about 538 grades
IronLionZion
Oct 2016
#62
Welcome, but I don't think you are user "dangin" and their post is not updated. . . nt
Bernardo de La Paz
Oct 2016
#29
Right-There Are About 28 Polling Firms rated Higher and ALL of Them Have Clinton Leading
Stallion
Oct 2016
#65
You are welcome, but the Original Post did not pose a question. . . . nt
Bernardo de La Paz
Oct 2016
#46
I endorse rationality. It seems under-rated. Thanks for supporting! . . nt
Bernardo de La Paz
Oct 2016
#49
Regardless, Nate Silver has greater knowledge & insight about polling than me & I dare say you. . nt
Bernardo de La Paz
Oct 2016
#18
No. You are exhibiting a blind spot on this whole issue and not thinking clearly about it.
Bernardo de La Paz
Oct 2016
#28
Sam Wang's been better this season. Silver gave Trump a 2% chance of winning the Republican
Chathamization
Oct 2016
#41
I'm sure folks are just chasing you down to discuss the validity of Nate Silver's analysis of polls
bravenak
Oct 2016
#64
When math goes past 2+2 it often becomes very difficult for people to grasp. nt.
NCTraveler
Oct 2016
#74
me: "If Inflammatory Bowel Disease (A- rated by Nate Silver) bombs on November 8th..."
eShirl
Oct 2016
#82
i interpret Nate's grade to be the accuracy of the poll in picking out *trends*
0rganism
Oct 2016
#89