2016 Postmortem

molova

(543 posts) Mon Oct 24, 2016, 06:13 AM Oct 2016

If IBD (A- rated by Nate Silver) bombs on November 8th, please don't talk to me about 538 grades [View all]

I'd like to request that when the 2018 midterm or 2020 Presidential elections approach, anyone who posts a "This-poll-is-great-because-Nate-Silver-gave-it-a-good-grade" type of thread or post will be ignored by me, if it turns out that IBD/TIPP (A- rated by Nate Silver's fivethirtyeight.com) either picked Trump to win or got the margin wrong by 5+ or more.

Some people pretend that 538's grading system has somehow been empirically tested or correlated to election accuracy.

Thanks in advance.

93 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

If IBD (A- rated by Nate Silver) bombs on November 8th, please don't talk to me about 538 grades [View all] molova Oct 2016 OP

Quora has also said that the LA Time poll is statistically sound also as well as IBD michiganman1019 Oct 2016 #1

Right.... Validated... That's utter tripe, especially for fracking LATime one. Foggyhill Oct 2016 #5

Hillary is ahead in leftynyc Oct 2016 #20

But you are not voting for HIllary? Maru Kitteh Oct 2016 #53

You seem concerned. nt msanthrope Oct 2016 #2

ROFL alcibiades_mystery Oct 2016 #4

Do you think the IBD poll will be accurate? molova Oct 2016 #22

I don't think... alcibiades_mystery Oct 2016 #34

You are a bully! Any poster with less that 1000 posts you insult. And when.... ScienceIsGood Oct 2016 #58

Me thinks thou do protest too much... nt. Blue Idaho Oct 2016 #80

Nope, he does it a lot. N/t ScienceIsGood Oct 2016 #84

That makes no sense molova Oct 2016 #21

There can be 100 polls good for Hillary but Demsrule86 Oct 2016 #40

I think people need more evidence than one poll doubt. N/t ScienceIsGood Oct 2016 #59

I criticized IBD. Learn how to read molova Oct 2016 #67

Did you read the replies? Demsrule86 Oct 2016 #93

Please read what those guys actually write Adrahil Oct 2016 #3

Actually, I think Nate is wrong about that and I don't respect him because he says such things. Foggyhill Oct 2016 #6

+1 uponit7771 Oct 2016 #35

You really don't understand statistics mythology Oct 2016 #45

Have done 5+ univ. Stat courses (McGill) Foggyhill Oct 2016 #50

Well, you are free to start your own poll aggregator... Adrahil Oct 2016 #56

How many IBD polls did 538 consider? molova Oct 2016 #23

17 RAFisher Oct 2016 #39

Have you heard of more than one IBD poll? molova Oct 2016 #68

Been here long? IronLionZion Oct 2016 #7

I don't get it molova Oct 2016 #24

Bullying isn't only a repug attribute, unfortunately. elleng Oct 2016 #54

If IBD bombs on November 8th, I won't won't talk to him/her about 538 grades IronLionZion Oct 2016 #62

Welcome to DU! IronLionZion Oct 2016 #61

You are 3 months late molova Oct 2016 #69

You've been here 3 months IronLionZion Oct 2016 #90

You failed, now you change the subject molova Oct 2016 #91

You win IronLionZion Oct 2016 #92

Lots of angry new DUers in this thread Democat Oct 2016 #32

Does anyone know the slant on IBD polling? apcalc Oct 2016 #8

IBD Bernardo de La Paz Oct 2016 #11

Thanks! Corrected! apcalc Oct 2016 #17

Polling error.... Adrahil Oct 2016 #57

IBD preweights for party ID Cicada Oct 2016 #81

76% dangin Oct 2016 #9

How do you separate success and methodology? NobodyHere Oct 2016 #10

IBD Bernardo de La Paz Oct 2016 #13

Thanks, updated! apcalc Oct 2016 #19

Welcome, but I don't think you are user "dangin" and their post is not updated. . . nt Bernardo de La Paz Oct 2016 #29

An A- puts it in the middle of the pack oberliner Oct 2016 #12

Right-There Are About 28 Polling Firms rated Higher and ALL of Them Have Clinton Leading Stallion Oct 2016 #65

Prove it molova Oct 2016 #70

Here ya go oberliner Oct 2016 #73

I found 260 with a grade below A- molova Oct 2016 #79

There are only about 50 total oberliner Oct 2016 #83

Don't be slick. The number is 75, worse than A- with over 10 polls conducted molova Oct 2016 #85

IB-Who? Never heard of them until today. NurseJackie Oct 2016 #14

IBD is Investors Business Daily.. a very RW (editorially) version Grey Lemercier Oct 2016 #87

Thanks. NurseJackie Oct 2016 #88

The only way to do this is to aggregate all of the polls. aaaaaa5a Oct 2016 #15

People are confused by the IBD and LA Times TRACKING polls. Bernardo de La Paz Oct 2016 #16

Thanks for answering the OP question. nt LAS14 Oct 2016 #43

You are welcome, but the Original Post did not pose a question. . . . nt Bernardo de La Paz Oct 2016 #46

Ah, you're right. So thanks for injecting rationality into the discussion. LAS14 Oct 2016 #47

I endorse rationality. It seems under-rated. Thanks for supporting! . . nt Bernardo de La Paz Oct 2016 #49

Regardless, Nate Silver has greater knowledge & insight about polling than me & I dare say you. . nt Bernardo de La Paz Oct 2016 #18

So I guess the IBD poll will be accurate molova Oct 2016 #25

No. You are exhibiting a blind spot on this whole issue and not thinking clearly about it. Bernardo de La Paz Oct 2016 #28

Have to been to 538 lately? ProudToBeBlueInRhody Oct 2016 #60

Sam Wang's been better this season. Silver gave Trump a 2% chance of winning the Republican Chathamization Oct 2016 #41

"I'd like to request... truebluegreen Oct 2016 #27

They've moved into a tie today in this poll. Ace Rothstein Oct 2016 #30

From what I could tell, IBD/TIPP equally weights four regions of the country. Roland99 Oct 2016 #31

Actually! Today's updated IBD/TIPP poll has Clinton up 0.1%!!! 41.2% vs 41.1% Roland99 Oct 2016 #33

This message was self-deleted by its author Dem2 Oct 2016 #38

What poll are you referring to? According to this link it's tied. Reece2076 Oct 2016 #36

Rasmussen is the only poll giving Trump a lead Johnny2X2X Oct 2016 #37

Sure, because Nate really is an idiot. N/t ScienceIsGood Oct 2016 #42

Thanks, Molova. And shame on those who... LAS14 Oct 2016 #44

Agreed Dem2 Oct 2016 #48

you seem very concerned. stonecutter357 Oct 2016 #52

Oh, for crying out loud. I wish "concerned" had never become a catch all... LAS14 Oct 2016 #55

Exactly. The OP is actually optimistic toward Clinton molova Oct 2016 #66

this^^^^^^ Grey Lemercier Oct 2016 #86

Very concerned bravenak Oct 2016 #63

Nate didn't just list statistics molova Oct 2016 #71

Yeah, but the grades are calculated, in part, on... LAS14 Oct 2016 #76

I'm not concerned at all. stonecutter357 Oct 2016 #51

At this point it doesn't really matter... Joe941 Oct 2016 #72

I'm sure folks are just chasing you down to discuss the validity of Nate Silver's analysis of polls bravenak Oct 2016 #64

When math goes past 2+2 it often becomes very difficult for people to grasp. nt. NCTraveler Oct 2016 #74

The thing to do is to see how they're rated AFTER Nov 8. LAS14 Oct 2016 #75

He'll lower the grade if it bombs. RandySF Oct 2016 #77

Another way to think about tracking polls... LAS14 Oct 2016 #78

me: "If Inflammatory Bowel Disease (A- rated by Nate Silver) bombs on November 8th..." eShirl Oct 2016 #82

i interpret Nate's grade to be the accuracy of the poll in picking out *trends* 0rganism Oct 2016 #89

Hillary is +3 in this poll today Dem2 Oct 2016 #94