A question for those who think Trump will defy the consensus and win in November.

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127. Garrett78—The path for Donald Trump to win a 2016 Republican pickup of the presidency…

Last edited Sun May 29, 2016, 03:12 PM - Edit history (3)

Garrett78,

In 2012, losing Republican presidential nominee and challenger Mitt Romney lost in the U.S. Popular Vote by –3.86 percentage points—that is, 47.16 percent for Romney to the winning 51.02 percent for re-election for President Barack Obama.

I am not predicting yet; but, a 2016 Republican pickup of the presidency would start with carrying every state in Romney’s 2012 column—24 states and 206 electoral votes.

Republican pickups would come from bellwether states Florida (29 electoral votes), a margin of D+0.88; Ohio (18 electoral votes), D+2.98; Virginia (13 electoral votes), D+3.88; and Colorado (09), D+5.36.

The level of a national shift is what helps shape the map. The above-mentioned states is assuming a 4- or 5-point national shift, for Donald Trump to win a Republican pickup of the U.S. Popular Vote by up to R+1 (which would be: Trump, 50 percent; Hillary Clinton, 49 percent). Any more of a Republican national shift would bring in additional states. But the four I mentioned would be enough to win with at least 275 electoral votes.


ALSO FACTOR

• Iowa (06 electoral votes)—A 2012 margin of D+5.81. This state is voting like former bellwether neighbor Missouri. It, along with New Mexico, are the only two states which backed all popular-vote winners after the 1980s—including Al Gore (2000) and George W. Bush (2004). Within its bellwether status, Iowa tilts Democratic by +2. If a Democrat wins, Iowa will carry.

• Nevada (06 electoral votes)—A margin of D+6.94. The state is a bonafide bellwether, because it has carried for every presidential winner since 1912 with exception of Jimmy Carter not carrying it (when he unseated Gerald Ford) in 1976. Since 1992, Nevada has been carrying within +5 of the national result. But, the good thing for Democrats is that the state moved from a Republican to a Democratic tilt, with Barack Obama's first election in 2008, and that could mean a Democrat wins Nevada while a Republican wins the presidency. (That would be based on a low national margin for a winning Republican to a narrow margin for a losing Democrat to hold Nevada.)

• New Mexico (05 electoral votes)—A margin of D+10.15. Its bellwether days may be over. This was indicated to possibly be the case, over 2008 and 2012, with Missouri (which had voted for every presidential winner since 1904 while getting it wrong in 1956 and then being really off in 2008 and 2012). It also needs to be said that, since New Mexico entered the union and first voted in 1912, this state plus Nevada have carried the same in every presidential election except 2000. And that, of course, was attributed to the split outcomes of the Electoral College (George W. Bush, who carried Nevada) and U.S. Popular Vote (Al Gore, who carried New Mexico) winners. Typically, Nevada is about +3 points more Republican than New Mexico as the inverse is true that New Mexico is about +3 points more Democratic than Nevada. (Its demographics show that whites are severely lower in their numbers—their size of the vote—in New Mexico than in other states. So, a winning Republican getting to carry New Mexico will have to perform sufficiently well with non-whites, particularly Hispanics, in order to have a feasible shot at winning the state.)


FROM BLUE TO RED
I mentioned a combined 69 electoral votes with pickups from bellwether states Florida, Ohio, Virginia, and Colorado—added to the 2012 Republican column states for the 206 electoral votes won by Mitt Romney—would give Donald Trump a pickup of the presidency with at least 275 electoral votes. You can consider Iowa, Nevada, and New Mexico as the next tier. Any more would involve these.…

Since you wanted some mention of “blue” states, and some which I am about to list are "Blue Firewall" states, the estimated order would be…

• New Hampshire (04 electoral votes)—A margin of D+5.58. This state carried for George W. Bush in 2000 but flipped Democratic for losing challenger John Kerry in 2004. Other than that 2000 exception, New Hampshire favors the Democrats. (Prior to 2004, all winning Republicans carried the state of New Hampshire. But, given realigning and counter-realigning of the electoral map, we're in a period in which all winning Democrats will carry New Hampshire.) This state tends to tilt +2 for Democrats; but, it is prone to swing and carry for either party if the national margin is at least +2.

• Wisconsin (10 electoral votes)—A margin of D+6.94. George W. Bush came within a half-point of flipping Wisconsin in 2000 and 2004. But the state hasn't carried for a Republican since Ronald Reagan's 49-state re-election in 1984. The Democratic tilt for Wisconsin can vary. It was pretty even with Al Gore's popular-vote win in 2000. In 2004, it tilted by nearly +3. In 2008, it tilted between +6 and +7. In 2012, it was in between +3 and +4.

• Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes)—While Democrats would really love to win Texas, the same is true for Republicans with Pennsylvania. Its tilt varies. When Bush won the popular vote, in 2004, by R+2.46, Kerry carried this state by D+2.50. That was a Democratic tilt of nearly +5. But when Barack Obama won a Democratic pickup of the presidency, in 2008, the state spotted him an extra +3 points. (He won nationally by D+7.26 and Pennsylvania carried by D+10.32.) With re-election, in 2012, Pennsylvania gave Obama an extra 1.52 as he won the state by D+5.38. It needs to be noted that Pennsylvania has had a Democratic tilt in every presidential election since after the 1940s. This also means every Republican who carried Pennsylvania after the 1940s—Dwight Eisenhower (1952, 1956), Richard Nixon (re-election in 1972), Ronald Reagan (1980, 1984), and George Bush (1988)—won the state wit a percentage-points margin lower than their national numbers. What this means, ultimately, is that when Democrats win the presidency, the state of Pennsylvania definitely carries.

• Minnesota (10 electoral votes)—A margin of D+7.69. Minnesota hasn't carried for a Republican since Richard Nixon won 49 states with re-election in 1972. Come to think—since after Dwight Eisenhower won 39 and 41 (of a then-48 states) in 1952 and 1956, and carried Minnesota both times, the state has given Republicans carriage only once—and it was with a 1972 Nixon. Like with the state of Massachusetts, every winning Democratic ticket has carried the state of Minnesota since Franklin Roosevelt's first election back in 1932. What makes Minnesota persuadable is that its Democratic tilt is not overwhelming. It has hovered between +3 and +5 as a Democratic tilt since 2000. (That year, Al Gore won the U.S. Popular Vote by +0.52. He carried Minnesota by only D+2.41.) In 2004, it was +5 as a Democratic tilt. It 2008, it was +3. In 2012, it was +4.

• Michigan (16 electoral votes)—A margin of D+9.48. Michigan hasn't carried Republican since 1988, the last year on record that party also carried the likes of other double-digit, electoral-vote states Pennsylvania, Maryland, New Jersey, President Barack Obama's home state Illinois, and No. 1 most-populous California. When Bill Clinton flipped Michigan, in 1992, it still had its "swing state" reputation. In 1984 and 1988, Michigan's percentage-points margin was less than a full point from the national margins for Reagan and Bush. In 1992, its Democratic pickup became a tilt for the party by +2. But it trended Democratic after that, with typically +5 or +6. In 2008, it was extra generous—it was +9 as Obama won the popular vote by D+7.26 and Michigan by D+16.44. This is the last state on the last I would expect to flip from Democratic to Republican. But a strong enough shift, nationally, can do. I'd say that a Republican would have to win by R+6—that is, 52 to 46 percent in the U.S. Popular Vote—to have a feasible shot at winning over Michigan.


Every state on this list assumes a Republican shift in the U.S. Popular Vote—that is, from 2012 to 2016—of +8 to +10. (It's an estimate of potential that played out in party-flipping presidential years 2000 and 2008.) That is, with mentioning the potential if the numbers are just right for the 2016 Republicans. (This would give Donald Trump a potential of 36 states and 352 electoral votes.) But, of course, if Hillary Clinton wins the nomination and the general election—in what would be a Democratic hold of the presidency—none of the listed states would switch party support. In fact, if she has a national shift of up to +5, that would yield Barack Obama's 2012 re-election map and involve flipping between North Carolina (which carried in 2008 for Obama, R+2.04), Georgia (R+7.80), and Arizona (R+9.03). If she were to gain an additional +8 to +10 level of Democratic support—suggesting, at best, Hillary Clinton (56 percent) to Donald Trump (43 percent)—following would be Missouri (R+9.36), Indiana (which carried in 2008 for Obama, R+10.20), and Montana (R+13.64) to become ripe for flipping from Republican to Democratic. (This would give Hillary Clinton a potential of 34 states, plus District of Columbia, and 398 electoral votes.)