Welcome to DU!
The truly grassroots left-of-center political community where regular people, not algorithms, drive the discussions and set the standards.
Join the community:
Create a free account
Support DU (and get rid of ads!):
Become a Star Member
Latest Breaking News
General Discussion
The DU Lounge
All Forums
Issue Forums
Culture Forums
Alliance Forums
Region Forums
Support Forums
Help & Search
2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: A question for those who think Trump will defy the consensus and win in November. [View all]ibegurpard
(16,685 posts)9. I could see her losing
Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin
Edit history
Please sign in to view edit histories.
206 replies
= new reply since forum marked as read
Highlight:
NoneDon't highlight anything
5 newestHighlight 5 most recent replies
RecommendedHighlight replies with 5 or more recommendations
A question for those who think Trump will defy the consensus and win in November. [View all]
Garrett78
May 2016
OP
Garrett78—No Republican can pull together a winning map without both Florida and Ohio
CobaltBlue
May 2016
#141
Agreed. I don't see Trump or any Republican reaching 270 w/out both of those states.
Garrett78
May 2016
#148
if Trump is going to win, he will take OH, I doubt he wins MI, and he absolutely needs
AntiBank
May 2016
#172
agreed, if all the states you listed went that way Clinton wins 276-262, flip just WI TRump wins 272
AntiBank
May 2016
#185
you and I are basically in agreement, NC and FL were my 2 hardest to give to Trump
AntiBank
May 2016
#188
I wouldn't bet on it due to Clinton being so polarizing but it's not out of the realm of possibility
Garrett78
May 2016
#193
yes, I agree, I was just posting basically the only theoretical way it could happen, I give it less
AntiBank
May 2016
#189
CNN had a map on this morning... In addition to FL, also VA and MI and CA, couldn't make out the
JudyM
May 2016
#3
That piece is about where Trump thinks he can win. I'm not asking what Trump thinks.
Garrett78
May 2016
#13
Yeah, hypothetical general election match-up polls are historically worthless.
Garrett78
May 2016
#187
But you aren't answering. It's not a gotcha question. It's very straightforward.
Garrett78
May 2016
#19
It may be hard, but it's not impossible. It's just a prediction, not a sworn affidavit.
Garrett78
May 2016
#39
My prediction was that he woudl be the nominee and could get the full enchilada
nadinbrzezinski
May 2016
#41
"Not very conventional routes" implies this is more complicated than it really is.
Garrett78
May 2016
#43
If you don't like what people are posting in this link why don't you put up a poll. That will limit
JudyM
May 2016
#29
Many keep dismissing Trump, yet he keeps winning. Trump, is not a politician, he's
RKP5637
May 2016
#58
Definitely!!! My hunch is he will look/act/sound like an absolute fool in the GE, a fish out of
RKP5637
May 2016
#90
Also, he's used to generally holding/pulling all the strings and having those at his beckon
RKP5637
May 2016
#93
Yep, Trump's success says more about the state of the Republican Party than anything else.
Garrett78
May 2016
#100
Of which states - I have not a clue! My response is based on people in general.
ebayfool
May 2016
#42
That Trump has any support at all is certainly disheartening, if not surprising.
Garrett78
May 2016
#45
ebayfool—Lots of people aren't familiar with the map (and they don't need to be). But…
CobaltBlue
May 2016
#150
ebayfool—Thank you for mentioning your county. (I'll tell you mine—and I have more to say….)
CobaltBlue
May 2016
#199
Yeah, I think some underestimate how favorable the electoral map is for Dems these days.
Garrett78
May 2016
#54
I don't want to get cocky but it looks like Trump will need > 65% of the white vote to win.
DemocratSinceBirth
May 2016
#62
Romney got 59% of the white vote and still won just 206 electoral college votes.
Garrett78
May 2016
#70
The magic number is > 65% of the white vote. Everything else is commentary.
DemocratSinceBirth
May 2016
#83
You can't compare mid term participation with presidential election participation because
DemocratSinceBirth
May 2016
#85
Presidential election electorates are much larger and heterogeneous than mid term electorates.
DemocratSinceBirth
May 2016
#110
Schwarzenegger courted Hispanics here. He didn't call them rapists , murderers , and drug dealers.
DemocratSinceBirth
May 2016
#23
Different people are pissed off for different reasons. And have been or years.
Garrett78
May 2016
#69
Trump isn't facing a very likely indictment(s) at end of several ongoing FBI investigations.
99Forever
May 2016
#105
19 states (plus DC) have been won by the Dem candidate in 6 straight presidential elections.
Garrett78
May 2016
#68
Quite honestly, I think our only hope is the Libertarians splitting the vote on the right.
Vinca
May 2016
#144
I don't see any 3rd party candidate impacting the result in any of the states.
Garrett78
May 2016
#152
More united than when? The GOP establishment is up in arms over Trump being the nominee.
Garrett78
May 2016
#109
It will be on Democrats to make sure Trump is never president, as Michael Moore
Thinkingabout
May 2016
#79
What?!? The Obama Coalition is the reason she's well on her way to being nominated.
Garrett78
May 2016
#115
what makes you think she's doing well? she's 4 million votes behind where she was in 2008.
Exilednight
May 2016
#200
So, that's a no, you don't have a link to back up your claim. Didn't think so.
Garrett78
May 2016
#201
Here's over 40 links. All you need to do is look at exit polling for every state and look for the
Exilednight
May 2016
#204
You can hardly walk hrough GDP without tripping over a poster who says Trump will beat Clinton.
Garrett78
May 2016
#132
Garrett78—The path for Donald Trump to win a 2016 Republican pickup of the presidency…
CobaltBlue
May 2016
#127
Those maps show the best case scenario for Trump. There won't be a Trump landslide.
Garrett78
May 2016
#167
Gerrymandering and favorable demographics allow the GOP to win congressional seats.
Garrett78
May 2016
#169