2016 Postmortem

geek tragedy

(68,868 posts) Wed Oct 24, 2012, 04:07 PM Oct 2012

Colorado early voting: a chink in the OFA GOTV armor [View all]

OFA is supposed to have a big organizational edge against Romney in Colorado. It's not showing up in the numbers yet.

http://www.9news.com/news/local/article/295907/222/325000-Colo-ballots-cast-after-2-days-of-early-voting

DENVER - More than 325,000 ballots had already been cast in Colorado by mail or in early voting center as of Wednesday morning, according to figures released by the Colorado Secretary of State's office.

Republican turnout outpaced Democrats by more than 5,000 registered voters.

The turnout breaks down into percentages as follows:

•39 percent Republican
•37 percent Democrat
•24 percent Unaffiliated/Other

Not only behind in absolute terms vs the Republicans, but a significant decline vs 2008 figures.

The breakdown on Oct. 23, 2008 was:

•40 percent Democrat
•33 percent Republican
•27 percent Unaffiliated/Other

Our path to victory was never dependent on Colorado. Still, one wonders what's going on out there.

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Colorado early voting: a chink in the OFA GOTV armor [View all] geek tragedy Oct 2012 OP

Rachel Maddow said the other night there's a lot of voter registration shenanigans going on there catbyte Oct 2012 #1

There shouldn't be any - except for maybe Sproul's work. Panasonic Oct 2012 #5

Who cares. That's why it's a firewall. Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #2

OH+NV+WI is the firewall. geek tragedy Oct 2012 #4

Romney is sweating plenty Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #9

Those aren't "locks" woolldog Oct 2012 #21

Yeah it is. Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #24

Take nothing for granted. woolldog Oct 2012 #30

Not worried at all. Panasonic Oct 2012 #3

Maybe they will. But this shows that the Republicans are outperforming geek tragedy Oct 2012 #6

Outperforming by only 2 points Cali_Democrat Oct 2012 #7

But they were 7 points better than the Republicans in 2008. geek tragedy Oct 2012 #10

7 points is outperforming, 2 points is not Hutzpa Oct 2012 #14

Exactly. OFA outperformed the Republicans in 2008. geek tragedy Oct 2012 #19

McCain had no ground game and no money in 2008 (by this point anyway) CreekDog Oct 2012 #18

Well, it's a battle. Panasonic Oct 2012 #8

Tho you're given to these dire posts... How do you KNOW that the (R)s are voting Romney? progressivebydesign Oct 2012 #11

This isn't dire, but registered Republicans are going to vote for Romney. geek tragedy Oct 2012 #12

My husband and I are registered independent but usually vote dem meadowlark5 Oct 2012 #13

Keep us updated. nt Hutzpa Oct 2012 #17

Latinos Latinos Latinos... That's our CO firewall... smorkingapple Oct 2012 #15

The author is correct in his concerns kansasobama Oct 2012 #16

The reason that Colorado voted for Dem senators and governor is because the repubs were meadowlark5 Oct 2012 #20

My mom felt like Colorado was a lost cause, after she canvassed there for almost 2 weeks. JRLeft Oct 2012 #22

I looked at an election/vote map after the election in 2008 meadowlark5 Oct 2012 #25

No way. Drahthaardogs Oct 2012 #35

Here is an article about the 2008 election in Colo and it does say without Denver and Boulder county meadowlark5 Oct 2012 #39

Don't forget that McCain wanted to share Colorado's water and the Pinon Canyon... joshcryer Oct 2012 #51

This is a bogus concern ProSense Oct 2012 #23

I can guarantee you he won't repeat those numbers in 2012. geek tragedy Oct 2012 #26

No you can't. ProSense Oct 2012 #29

Well, the supposedly hidden Latino vote isn't showing up in early voting either. geek tragedy Oct 2012 #32

You're still talking turnout numbers and not support. ProSense Oct 2012 #33

This is a discussion about turnout/GOTV/ground game. geek tragedy Oct 2012 #34

Given Obama's margins in 2008 Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #27

Possibly, let's see what happens when you have a weekend added to the figures. grantcart Oct 2012 #28

It's winnable for sure, but for whatever reason we don't have a GOTV edge. geek tragedy Oct 2012 #31

Right now in CO there are more registered Repubs then Dems. Jennicut Oct 2012 #36

you beat me to saying this; CO is one of 2 swings where this is the case. amborin Oct 2012 #37

NH is the other one but independents outnumber both Dems and Repubs there. Jennicut Oct 2012 #38

this proves it all hinges on GOTV amborin Oct 2012 #42

Not sure, I will track the numbers down. Jennicut Oct 2012 #43

ps amborin Oct 2012 #45

OMG. Jennicut Oct 2012 #48

more here: basically, contraception is bad; LOL amborin Oct 2012 #50

Not good news. wildeyed Oct 2012 #40

325,000 voters, compared to about 85,000 at this date in 2008. geek tragedy Oct 2012 #41

Hey. It's not republicans that are a train wreck in OH. It's democrats that are showing up LisaL Oct 2012 #44

The 40 percent was of 85,000? ProSense Oct 2012 #46

That is a huge increase wildeyed Oct 2012 #47

Unlike NC, and Fl, we don't have a registration advantage in Co. LisaL Oct 2012 #49

Obama has been playing ads here about mail in ballots. joshcryer Oct 2012 #52

I'm still not seeing many Romney ads here meadowlark5 Oct 2012 #53