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2016 Postmortem

politicman

(710 posts) Wed Oct 24, 2012, 10:50 AM Oct 2012

A little math regarding North Carolina [View all]

As someone said in an earlier forum, the raw numbers in NC are as follows:

Registered Democrats - 2,800,000
Registered Republicans - 2,000,000
Registered Unafilliated - 1,700,000

So according to these numbers, the minimum Obama would need to get is 85% of Democrats and 40% of unafilliated to win.

While Romney would need 100% of Republicans and 60% of unafilliated to even come close.

SO I ask, why do the polls show a completely different story from these numbers.

Does anyone think that Obama cannot get a minimum of 85% Democrats to actually vote and 40% of unafillated?
Because if he does that then he wins, its as simple as that.

29 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

A little math regarding North Carolina [View all] politicman Oct 2012 OP

Because the media wants a HORSE RACE so they can get there ad dollars bigdarryl Oct 2012 #1

Seriously... Jeff In Milwaukee Oct 2012 #3

I'm convinced that it's the media's fault that our country is always divided 50/50. tridim Oct 2012 #4

Bingo! Estevan Oct 2012 #5

Question: What % of Dems will vote for Romney and what % of Rethugs will vote for Obama? OhioworkingDem Oct 2012 #2

check this out politicman Oct 2012 #7

Ahem... gcomeau Oct 2012 #6

registered voters politicman Oct 2012 #12

I think a high turn out for a presidential year is 60%. OhioworkingDem Oct 2012 #16

again registered voters politicman Oct 2012 #18

Ok.. then, gcomeau Oct 2012 #19

Because pollsters assume republicans are more likely voters than democrats. LisaL Oct 2012 #8

Because a lot of Democrats don't vote, and unaffiliated is heavily Republican leaning there. geek tragedy Oct 2012 #9

Dems in NC kansasobama Oct 2012 #10

Those are only registered voters. LiberalFighter Oct 2012 #11

How do you think less will vote in 2012, when the numbers of people who already voted are LisaL Oct 2012 #13

YES BUT politicman Oct 2012 #14

yes but politicman Oct 2012 #17

Aren't 100000s of Ds in NC actually Rs who never changed their registration and vote a full R ticket LonePirate Oct 2012 #15

could be true politicman Oct 2012 #20

because if they don't they can't vote in local democratic primaries dsc Oct 2012 #22

no. barbtries Oct 2012 #21

If no, then why is the state so close despite Obama's superior ground game? LonePirate Oct 2012 #24

i don't believe it is close. barbtries Oct 2012 #26

I think there may be some left over dixiecrats on the registered rolls. SweetieD Oct 2012 #23

The opposite is also true. juajen Oct 2012 #27

A closer look, based on 2008 data. onenote Oct 2012 #25

Thanks. This proves a lot of what I have been saying. LonePirate Oct 2012 #29

There is a Dkos daily diary on NC Maximumnegro Oct 2012 #28