REUTERS POLL: Obama Is Going To Trounce Mitt Romney In A Landslide

[davidpdx]

21. By landslide, I am guessing you are referring to the electoral college

In that case, I disagree with you and think it will be much closer than last time.

First, if you look at the changes in the EV along due to reapportionment for the census, Obama will lose 6 EV assuming he won all the same states as in 2008. Also it is pretty apparent Indiana will flip back to being red again which is another 11, for a total of 17. That takes him from 365 to 347. There is no single state that the polls are showing Obama can flip this year that has been red. North Carolina and Florida will both be close. So the question comes down to those two states. If he wins both 347 would be the ceiling, if he loses one of them (which is possible, but certainly not fatal) it could be slightly lower.

Obama 347/Romney 191 will probably be the best we can hope for. While that is a good size win, I disagree that it is a blowout.