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2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: So. FL, MO, NC, OH, and IL vote on Tuesday. My predictions. [View all]JonLeibowitz
(6,282 posts)85. I think you are mostly right in this thread
I would only say that the supers need to be talked about negatively right now because otherwise her lead is insurmountable. If the end result is a delegate split I expect the conversation to switch to electability. God help us if there is another Clinton scandal.
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I think Clinton's significantly weaker in the midwest than the polling suggests
Recursion
Mar 2016
#3
Here is a demographically based turn out model by one of the leaders in the field
DemocratSinceBirth
Mar 2016
#9
On Tuesday we will know if Abramowitz's model, conventional polling, or neither is right.
DemocratSinceBirth
Mar 2016
#18
In political modeling small moves among large groups can have a large impact.
DemocratSinceBirth
Mar 2016
#44
Either you or Cali_Democrat could be right. There are also a few important things to remember
stevenleser
Mar 2016
#131
The candidate that goes into the Convention with the most popular votes and pledged delegates...
DemocratSinceBirth
Mar 2016
#15
She is going to the Convention with the most popular votes and the most pledged delegates.
DemocratSinceBirth
Mar 2016
#28
The person with the most popular votes and most pledged delegates wins.
DemocratSinceBirth
Mar 2016
#73
But it is not a given that the person with the most popular votes and the person with the most
Recursion
Mar 2016
#98
I can not foresee a scenario where the person with the most delegates doesn't have the most actual...
DemocratSinceBirth
Mar 2016
#100
After next Tuesday Clinton will have won the three key swing states from 08 and 012.
DemocratSinceBirth
Mar 2016
#10
She most definitely will be competitive in NC, FL , and VA in the general election.
DemocratSinceBirth
Mar 2016
#70
Oh that's only the start of what we'll see. We'll also see paeans to the importance of supers
Recursion
Mar 2016
#16
It's funny to me that the people who whine the loudest about super delegates are pretty quiet about
Number23
Mar 2016
#129
Seems reasonable. I'm wondering if Kasich on the ballot will be a factor in Ohio
Orangepeel
Mar 2016
#7
Ah. The consummate curmudgeon: always complaining but contributing nothing. Ok.
Buzz Clik
Mar 2016
#48
One can slowly drown in their unscientific, unverifiable numerical predictions
aspirant
Mar 2016
#52
You might find Thomas Kuhn's book, "the Structure of Scientific Revolutions" as interesting...
Nitram
Mar 2016
#123
/geek=on/ Irony alert: that is not the actual formula. Real formula: E=1/2(mc^2-mv^2)
ieoeja
Mar 2016
#104
Right squanderer, there is a big difference between a scientific poll and an unscientific one.
Nitram
Mar 2016
#121
Late March and April are going to very good for Sanders, and here's the thing:
Recursion
Mar 2016
#30
On Mar 15th, the Clinton campaign will begin to press Sanders to get out of the race.
Jarqui
Mar 2016
#63
I agree. If he ends up only increasing his deficit by about 100, that would be tremendous.
thesquanderer
Mar 2016
#75
I only make that prediction on the condition that closed means what I said above.
PyaarRevolution
Mar 2016
#39
A closed primary means only registered Democrats can vote. You changing your prediction?
Buzz Clik
Mar 2016
#43
Oh yeah what am I thinking? Some key polling places where Bernie is polling well will not open until
lunasun
Mar 2016
#90
Sanders has dominated in rural regions. Suburbs and cities have been Hillary's.
ieoeja
Mar 2016
#106
Because of the Michigan polling debacle folks are disregarding all polls...
DemocratSinceBirth
Mar 2016
#54
That would probably be Bernie's best case scenario.. but just puts him in a much deeper hole.
DCBob
Mar 2016
#50
Hillary wins the Bible Belt (FL, NC); it's close elsewhere (MO, OH, and IL). The corrupt Chicago
Attorney in Texas
Mar 2016
#64
The corruption embodied by Rahm Emanuel is not what the PEOPLE of Chicago are all about.
Attorney in Texas
Mar 2016
#80
Glad to. I could very well be wrong, but I like to get my thoughts out there. (nt)
Recursion
Mar 2016
#87
Bernie will outperform, consistent with what he's done in every race so far.
closeupready
Mar 2016
#99
I predict Bernie will win IL. Rahm is despised in Chicago. Not just for the coverup of McDonald's
jillan
Mar 2016
#103
Since it makes no difference, I'll go bold. Bernie takes MO, NC and OH. Hillary takes FL and IL.
morningfog
Mar 2016
#109