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2016 Postmortem
Showing Original Post only (View all)The most accurate Iowa Democratic poll has just come out! [View all]
Last edited Sat Jan 30, 2016, 10:38 PM - Edit history (2)
The final Des Moines Register Iowa Democratic Caucus poll has historically been the best predictor of the final results. The results of their final poll was published by the paper on their Website at 6:07 local time this afternoon and it there is good news for Hillary Clinton fans.The Poll shows that Hillary has 3% lead over Bernie Sanders.
Clinton is the top pick for 45 percent of likely Democratic caucusgoers, with Sanders at 42 percent, The Des Moines Register/Bloomberg Politics poll shows.
Clinton's support is up 3 percentage points from earlier this month, and Sanders' is 2 percentage points higher.
Hillary Clinton has kept a tight grip on her slim lead over Bernie Sanders in the waning hours leading into the Iowa caucuses, a new Iowa Poll shows.
Clinton, a former first lady and former secretary of state, wins a majority among caucusgoers who are 65 and older, Catholics and moderates. Sanders, a U.S. senator representing Vermont, wins a majority of those under 35, first-time caucusgoers and political independents.
"Clinton's voters are more certain and much more likely to have caucused before," Axelrod said. "Bernie's organizational task, counting so heavily on first-time caucusgoers many of them young is greater."
Former Maryland Gov. Martin OMalley snags 3 percent of likely caucusgoers' support. He had 4 percent support in early January.
Clinton keeps slim edge over Sanders
Sanders supporters will claim that Bernie can easily make up the difference with a good turn out, but the final Des Moines Register has an excellent track record of picking the ultimate winner. Regardless, you can bet Bernie supporters wish that the numbers were reversed.
EDIT: Discussion of Poll Accuracy
Some have asked for information confirming how accurate this poll is. I stole this link from the reply by DemocrateSinceBirth below with the link from a Politico article:
The recent track record of her firm, Selzer & Company, is impressive: Selzer, who has polled for the Des Moines Register for decades, was the only pollster to nail the order of Democratic candidates in 2004. Her final poll before the 2008 caucuses accurately predicted that a surge of first-time caucusgoers would propel Barack Obama to a decisive victory. Selzer saw former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorums surge in the waning days before the 2012 GOP caucuses when few others did.
(snip)
I will take the Des Moines Register poll, which is the gold standard for polls in Iowa, Sanders said in late October.
Ann Selzer's secret sauce
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I have edited my original post above to include links to a Politico article about accuracy
CajunBlazer
Jan 2016
#46
GO BERNIE!!!! SoundS fantastic to me. Going from zero to nearly tied is INCREDIBLE!
nc4bo
Jan 2016
#3
Actually they call enough young people with cell phones to get a good sample
CajunBlazer
Jan 2016
#45
It will be quite interesting to watch results. If general election is so close, I will need meds.
Hoyt
Jan 2016
#7
“I will take the Des Moines Register poll, which is the gold standard for polls in Iowa,”
DemocratSinceBirth
Jan 2016
#10
And where does O'Malley's 3% go when he fails to reach the 15% threshold?
thesquanderer
Jan 2016
#16
Just because the results are within the poll's Margin of Error (or MoE)....
CajunBlazer
Jan 2016
#39
That wasn't the Des Moines Register poll - The DMR poll was the only one to call that race right
CajunBlazer
Jan 2016
#29