There were over 5,000 people attending today's weigh-in ceremonies. Over the years, there was only one card that I fought on with a larger crowd -- and I was in the third "undercard" bout, on a night that a Binghamton, NY native was fighting an undefeated contender who would win the world light heavyweight title within a year. Decades later, it seems that good fight cards -- such as the ESPN FNF -- don't get audiences that large.
Both Cotto and Mayweather look to be at their best. I believe that Cotto can do much better than most of the experts are predicting. Many are focused on "speed" -- and in that context, Mayweather has every advantage. And, of course, undefeated fighters don't know how to lose. So it is more likely that Cotto will make a good showing than win; yet he has, in my opinion, a real chance of winning, for timing can beat speed.
How will Mayweather approach the fight in the ring? Though I can only speculate, there has been a pattern since he was inactive, to allow his hands to heal. He isn't stationary, but he doesn't use his feet to go around the ring as he did as a young man. He picks his spots. Against Oscar de la Hoya and Ricky Hatton, he stayed against the ropes a lot. Against Marquez and Ortiz, he used the center of the ring. I suspect that he will be looking to keep this towards the middle of the ring; Cotto is probably more dangerous is he backs Floyd to the ropes.
I doubt that Cotto will be 100% aggressive. He should box much of the time. Both Floyd and Miguel like to counter-punch, but here, Cotto has to throw first frequently, and throw last in almost every exchange. For that reason, I'm confident that Floyd will be putting together more combinations than usual -- because he wants to prevent Cotto from punching last in those exchanges.
Cotto has scar-tissue. Floyd's crisp punches will cause the blood to flow. When injured (cut or stunned), Cotto habitually fouls. As nice a guy as he is outside of the ring, we've seen Cotto resort to butts, low-blows, elbows, and even physically throwing an opponent down (hard), when he believes it can help him. We've also seen that Mayweather will not initiate dirty tactics, but will not hesitate to respond harshly. This has been true throughout his career, except against an out-of-control Zab Judah when a mini-riot broke out in the ring.
We will see Floyd pressing his left forearm against Cotto's should & neck inside. His reach advantage suggests that we will also see numerous right-leads, especially if they hit the mark. Cotto is no doubt prepared for these rights; this should lead to an adjustment on Mayweather's part. Remember this: Floyd can lead with a very fast, very hard left hook. He wore Diego Corrales out with hard lead-rights, but the knockdowns came from lead left hooks.
Both guys will also be concentrating on body-shots. That should be a big factor. In order to get in range, Cotto has to come in under his jab -- and he'll need to jab a lot to try to reduce the lead-right opportunities for Floyd. And that's where, if I were to predict what I think will be the biggest factor, that I think we'll see Floyd's left hook.
Enjoy the fight!
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