Global warming of +10C is ====>!!NOT!!<==== a reasonable expectation (erratum et apologia) [View all]

[GliderGuider]

Last edited Fri Nov 23, 2012, 11:52 AM - Edit history (4)

My +10C scenarios were developed based on my misreading of McKibben's statement of how much carbon there is available to be burned in fossil fuel reserves. The Rolling Stone article was unclear, and said 2,795 Gt of carbon, when in fact they meant 2,795 Gt of CO2. The true number they meant therefore is less than 1/3 the amount I was working with. So the actual warming potential if we burned it all is in the range of +5 degrees or so. It's still too high for the continuation of civilization as we know it but not quite the planetary existential calamity I was worried about.

Mea culpa for not cross-checking the numbers before I ran with them.

This also points out the risk associated with having a doomer mentality. The ability to accept extremely negative information can result in believing erroneous information just because it presses one's "confirmation bias" buttons.

Back to the drawing board for me...

My apologies to all who were misled by my recent outbreak of doomeritis.