Air travel is not going away, though it will not recover for years, really not until sufficient immunity happens in the population, by whatever means.
If some airlines go out of business because they can not adjust to market forces that were already in play before the pandemic, let them. Others with better business models will rise up in their place. We have no reason to mourn for American, or Frontier, or any other Airline.
The pandemic will create many permanent changes, some of them beneficial. I doubt that all the people working from home will go back to the office, for example, as companies realize that they do not need expensive office space. Many stores and other businesses will go bust - not just due to some businesses being unable to operate at all during this time, but because many have overextended their franchises or locations, are not bringing anything of value to consumers that isn’t being met better elsewhere, or have been unable to adapt to changes for years.
Some bad ideas and economic norms may also die, such as the corporate love of fungible low-paid, poorly educated employees. We may even break the cycle of America being the land of part-time minimum wage fast food workers all selling burgers to each other as a viable business model. Even now, we’re seeing which restaurants are reopening successfully, or staying in business successfully with takeout, as a function of the quality of employees they can attract and retain. Wages for some are going up, with better and more adaptive employers.
Lots of people out of work? Yes. Permanently or long term? Likely yes. Job prospects for people without at least high school diplomas and some strong vocational chops are going to be dim. Much as I’m sorry for their individual suffering, this is both the result of a failed system that will have to be reformed quickly, and their families’ and their own bad choices in many instances. If you’re an ignorance-loving redneck from a family of them, don’t expect that your prayers and homeschooling will even get you a job at McDonald’s in a post-pandemic world. That lot is the loudest about “personal responsibility,” etc. - now they’re going to have to deal with the consequences of the garbage they’ve shoveled at others for years.
The post-pandemic world is likely to be more streamlined and resilient, and that’s a good thing.
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