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pansypoo53219

(20,976 posts)

3. MITTENS WAS SUPOSED TO WIN! the right SUFFERED MORE OBAMA!

Reply to Jefferson23 (Original post)

Mon Mar 7, 2016, 12:21 AM

Mar 2016

what more do you have to understand.

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35 replies

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Highlight:

How Nate Silver Failed To Predict Trump [View all] Jefferson23 Mar 2016 OP

Statistics elljay Mar 2016 #1

His play book is off, where the establishment and cohorts gave a definitive edge..he needs Jefferson23 Mar 2016 #2

MITTENS WAS SUPOSED TO WIN! the right SUFFERED MORE OBAMA! pansypoo53219 Mar 2016 #3

Statistical predictions are always based on what has happened already. bemildred Mar 2016 #4

But... but... but... malthaussen Mar 2016 #6

Don't get me started. It gets ugly. bemildred Mar 2016 #7

I love statistical analyis. malthaussen Mar 2016 #8

Theorems are a lot easier to come up with than proofs. bemildred Mar 2016 #9

but how do you know to inform your statistic? It could seem like an outlier... CTyankee Mar 2016 #13

Elaborate on that please. bemildred Mar 2016 #15

I guess that is my point. "Past is prologue" is a good general idea and a worthy warning but CTyankee Mar 2016 #16

Yes. Outliers are the problem, and emergence. bemildred Mar 2016 #17

we could start with fascism and its emergence and go from there...we hear so much CTyankee Mar 2016 #18

Yes. But that's not statistics. bemildred Mar 2016 #19

Yes...he finally was the "Man of the Moment" after trying for years... KoKo Mar 2016 #27

The best way to lead is to figure out where everybody is going and then hurry to get in front. bemildred Mar 2016 #31

Open primaries have undercut the power of the two main parties too. bemildred Mar 2016 #35

models work until the situation changes and the past is no longer a predictor of the future egold2604 Mar 2016 #5

and in knowing basics like how the Margin of Error is greater in a small poll size and CTyankee Mar 2016 #12

then the model must be adapted to the current situation and that is difficult... CTyankee Mar 2016 #14

The models are built by people who understand statistics then turned over to interns egold2604 Mar 2016 #26

I am no statistician (fine arts major!) but I mentioned outliers upthread which of CTyankee Mar 2016 #29

Better yet, HOW EVERY BODY FAILED TO PREDICT TRUMP. Nitram Mar 2016 #10

Yea, but not everyone makes their living off of being a political prophet. Jefferson23 Mar 2016 #11

I'm sure you are right, he seized the opportunity given his ego and power...he thinks CTyankee Mar 2016 #20

He saw an opportunity and did well with it for that period of time. I posted the OP I felt Jefferson23 Mar 2016 #23

Caught up in the wonky numbers...total math genius..but... KoKo Mar 2016 #22

People are under a great deal of stress and they can react in many ways, it seemed clear Jefferson23 Mar 2016 #24

Very Interesting...Thanks for Posting... KoKo Mar 2016 #21

Nostradamus couldn't have predicted Trump Relentless Liberal Mar 2016 #25

88% of statistics are made up ian cameron dromore Mar 2016 #28

"Lies, damn Lies, and statitics." CTyankee Mar 2016 #30

How to Lie with Statistics bemildred Mar 2016 #32

ep. You can phrase the question carefully and deviously...got that... CTyankee Mar 2016 #33

Very popular. bemildred Mar 2016 #34