Jobless claims push off five-year lows last week

[DallasNE]

4. Headline Numbers Can Be Misleading

Yes, GDP did shrink modestly. Two of those factors were the volatile defense spending numbers that pulled back sharply in the 4th quarter and an unexpected slowing in inventory buildup in the face of fairly strong consumer spending. Both of those events are likely tied to the uncertainty caused by the dysfunctional House taking the fiscal cliff down to literally the last hour. And kicking the can down the road for 3 months does little to address the issue of uncertainty. It would also be helpful to look at the regional numbers as one suspects that Sandy hammered GDP in the Northeast.

Jobless claims are always volatile so that is why one should only look at the four week moving average because that smooth's out those numbers and gives a clearer picture of what is happening. Friday we will have the January jobs numbers and I fully expect they will show modest job growth.

We are on the same page about the do-nothing Congress that is an unmitigated disaster. Obama has announced that his campaign team is being transformed into a permanent campaign. I also believe that Howard Dean's 50 State strategy worked and Democrats need to get back on board with that strategy.