France fears Islamist rise in Syria unless opposition helped

[pampango]

14. An al-Qaeda 'safe haven' in Syria will also put them adjacent to Israel which has to cause some

sleepless nights there. Israel and the Assads (both Bashar and his father) have been enemies but they haven't had a shooting war in 30-40 years. I don't believe that Israel seriously expected an invasion from Syria in the foreseeable future. (In light of the recent performance of Syria's military, Israel probably fears it even less.)

Israel may have more to fear from Syria as a safe haven for al-Qeada than from a Syria controlled by Bashar. I'm not sure that have a "Somalia" on your border is preferable to having a continuing stalemate with a country governed by a regime that controls everything that happens, particularly when the apparent military effectiveness of that country's military has been called into question.

I sympathize with the plight of the Syrian people. I totally understand not wanting to live under a dictator. I sure don't want to live under one. But the dynamics that have unfolded in their effort to remove the dictator are likely to leave Syrians with as many or more problems than they had at the beginning.

It has happened before:

The French Revolution in 1789 let to the Reign of Terror in 1793-94;
The February Revolution in 1917 in Russia deposed the Tsar, but was followed by the October Revolution and, eventually, the purges and famines of Stalin;
The Spanish Revolution of 1936 ended in failure and decades of repressive rule by the fascist Francisco Franco.

The failure (though most led to eventual success) of previous revolutions against kings, tsars and dictators never seems to prevent people of later eras who feel that are repressed from attempting to overthrow their rulers.

Perhaps the next time people rise up against a dictator, the rest of us should evaluate the situation and, possibly, tell them "Sorry but we're going to have to side with the dictator and his military on this one. You people don't understand the trouble you may be causing for yourselves - and perhaps for us. You really are better off with a dictator because of where you live and who you live with."

We will not always be able to do anything effective to help people who rebel (Hungary in 1956 and Czechoslovakia in 1968 are examples) but we should not automatically tell them to "sit down and be quiet about their situation" either.