Brian Schatz Senate: Hawaii's Lieutenant Governor Tapped To Replace Late Sen. Daniel Inouye

[David in Canada]

21. Three Main Reasons

There are three main reasons why Brian Schatz was likely chosen over Colleen Hanabusa.

1) Seniority. With the death of Daniel Inouye and impending retirement of Daniel Akaka from the Senate, as well as the promotion of Mazie Hirono to Akaka's seat, Hawai'i is poised to lose almost all of its seniority. It is therefore imperative for the state to start rebuilding its seniority. House seniority cannot be transferred to the Senate except as a tie-breaker for two senators taking office on the exact same day. Therefore, Hirono's six years of House seniority is gone and Hanabusa's two years of House seniority would be gone too if she were appointed to the Senate. Also, Hanabusa is 61 while Schatz is 40. Schatz therefore has a lot more time to accrue seniority and be able to go on to become a committee chairman. It takes until a senator's third term before a committee chairmanship becomes a possibility and a prime committee chairmanship usually requires 20-25 years of service. By the time Hanabusa could accrue this seniority, she'd be approaching retirement. With Schatz and Hirono's replacement, Tulsi Gabbard, being only 31 years old, this is their best chance to do so.

2) Hanabusa's seat. If Hanabusa had been appointed to the senate, she would have had to forego her House seat. This would have necessitated a special election. In Hawai'i, special elections involve all candidates on a single ballot and whomever has a plurality is elected. There are primaries in special elections or even a second round in the even of no candidate receiving a majority of votes cast. A split Democratic field and with 1/2 term former Rep. Charles Djou on the ballot, Djou could easily make a comeback. Djou was elected in 2010 after Hanabusa and Ed Case split the Democratic vote allowing Djou to win with less that 40% of the vote. While another Djou win wouldn't be the end of the world (he'd likely lose again in 2014), it would allow the GOP to make hay and say "hey, they oppose the president's fiscal plan everywhere, even in Hawai'i!!!!1!!" even though it would ignore all context. Besides, when was the last time Republicans paid attention to context?

3) Electability. Hanabusa, prior to her election to Congress, had a long career as a state senator. However, her attempts at promotion were very lacklustre. She lost three previous congressional bids and her two congressional victories were rather lukewarm. Granted, her defeat of then-Rep. Charles Djou in the 2010 general election was as a challenger and Hawai'i *loves* their incumbents. However, in 2012, as the incumbent, she only got 53% of vote while Obama won with 70%, Hirono defeated former governor Linda Lingle for the U.S. Senate seat 62-38 and Tulsi Gabbard won over 3/4 of the vote in her own district.