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In reply to the discussion: 'If We Get It, We Chose to Be Here': Despite Virus, Thousands Converge on Sturgis for Huge Rally [View all]PatrickforO
(14,956 posts)That's a pretty big spreader event. Without social distancing a study in India found that one COVID-19 patient can infect 406 people in 30 days if social distancing is not practiced. So it would, in theory, only take about 616 infected people to give the whole quarter million attendees at this event the virus.
That isn't realistic, so let's say about 70% get infected. That would be 175,000 new cases.
If the current R0, or spread rate, for the coronavirus infection is somewhere between 1.5 and 4, then we could be looking at between 262,500 and 700,000 infections.
So, since the COVID mortality rate worldwide is around 3.7% based on published data, this 'fuck COVID, I went to Sturgis' mentality might end up costing between 10,000 and 25,000 American lives.
Sigh.