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progree

(10,907 posts)
3. The ADP numbers cover only about 20% of the nation's private workforce
Wed Jun 3, 2020, 08:59 AM
Jun 2020

The ADP numbers cover only about 20% of the nation's private workforce.
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/powell20191008a.htm

(One constantly reads on DU that the ADP is better than the BLS's jobs survey because the ADP uses actual payroll data whereas the BLS's non-farm payroll survey is "just a survey". But ADP does not process all private employment payrolls, just 20%. And then somehow they extrapolate the other 80%. ).

Typically (and this was also true even when Obama was president), in months when the ADP report was significantly worse (i.e. lower job gains or greater job losses) than the BLS numbers, then there are posts about how ADP numbers are more reliable because they are "real payroll data". Whereas when the BLS numbers are worse, it's crickets -- the ADP survey goes unmentioned. And so it goes.

The monthly BLS jobs report comes out Friday, June 5, 2 days from now. (For the rest of the year, the BLS report comes out on the first Friday of the month).

Latest Discussions»Latest Breaking News»Private-sector employment...»Reply #3