Coronavirus: US bars entry to foreigners travelling from mainland China, declares public health emer

[James48]

1. It's pretty clear

That this likely is a biological weapons release inside the Chinese lab on Wuhan.
If not an actual weapon, it’s growth patterns are mimicking a weapon. The good thing is that it is not very fatal- (about 2% of confirmed cases so far are dying, so it’s more than influenza, but considerably less toxic than smallpox).


Clearly their military/science community recognized the severity and thank GOD they communicated the seriousness of it right away to the outside world. THAT is different from any previous release.

Whether was intentional, or accidental, at this point doesn’t matter. The only thing that matters is speed in getting it under control.

My calculations say it’s slightly more toxic (4.6% more fatal than my calculations last week), but also slightly slower in its spread. (Expanding 8% slower that my calculations last week).

That assumes the WHO numbers coming out of China are accurate. Unfortunately, we don’t have checks of that, because there isn’t any independent reporting of actual deaths. Only government reporting.

Some quick forecasts:

2/01- 330 dead. 16,000 confirmed cases.

02/07- 3,500 dead. 168000 confirmed cases.

02/14- 50,000 dead. 2.2 million cases

02/21- 1 Million dead, 57 million cases.


Cross your fingers that they can develop preventive measures quickly to slow the spread. It’s going to quickly overwhelm the healthcare systems of the entire world.