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mathematic

(1,439 posts)
16. The index measures growth/contraction, not levels
Thu Jan 9, 2020, 01:38 PM
Jan 2020

A measure of manufacturing activity is a measure of manufacturing (obviously, I suppose, and I don't know why you would characterize what I said that way). It's just not a measure that many people think it is. It's not a measure of levels it's a measure of trend.

Hypothetically, if manufacturing declined 1% and then started growing 2% a year for 10 years and then declined 1% again it would be absolutely correct to say "manufacturing activity hasn't declined this much in 10 years" and absolutely incorrect to say "manufacturing is at a 10 year low". In this hypothetical scenario, manufacturing is about 20% higher now than it was 10 years ago.

Here's the actual ISM release, for reference.

Economic activity in the manufacturing sector contracted in December, and the overall economy grew for the 128th consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®.

https://www.instituteforsupplymanagement.org/ismreport/mfgrob.cfm?SSO=1


green jobs? no... Military weapons? yes I hear drums scarytomcat Jan 2020 #1
Yeah, more minimum wage, no benefits, sales clerk jobs. Farmer-Rick Jan 2020 #2
yeah okay llashram Jan 2020 #3
Yes, it is. You caught me. I confess. NT mahatmakanejeeves Jan 2020 #4
I knew a guy who was homeless in 1998. Drunken Irishman Jan 2020 #14
okay llashram Jan 2020 #20
Hiring people before Christmas. OnlinePoker Jan 2020 #5
that's exactly what I was thinking MissMillie Jan 2020 #6
Apparently the 10,000 times it has been pointed out that the reports are "seasonally adjusted" onenote Jan 2020 #8
I was just about to say that. NT mahatmakanejeeves Jan 2020 #12
But manufacturing is way off. It's the lowest in 10 leftyladyfrommo Jan 2020 #7
I cut my own hair now instead of going to the barber OnlinePoker Jan 2020 #9
No, that manufacturing headline was misleading mathematic Jan 2020 #10
I believe you. But you trust the government? leftyladyfrommo Jan 2020 #11
Well ADP is another source - not the government. Drunken Irishman Jan 2020 #13
Can you elaborate on why a measure of "manufacturing activity" isn't a measure of manufacturing? onenote Jan 2020 #15
The index measures growth/contraction, not levels mathematic Jan 2020 #16
thanks onenote Jan 2020 #17
Some earlier reports about the manufacturing index: mahatmakanejeeves Jan 2020 #18
Links to earlier reports: mahatmakanejeeves Jan 2020 #19
Bragging about SEASONAL work, again? Brainfodder Jan 2020 #21
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