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In reply to the discussion: Who will be the first to tell me I'm indulging in paranoid fantasies? [View all]Jackpine Radical
(45,274 posts)5. The overall rate of sex offense recidivism is in the neighborhood of 5%.
There are no actuarial techniques that can identify with any reliability which people will be among that 5%. Do you want to commit 20 people for life in order to prevent 1 from reoffending?
Furthermore, very few adult-victim rapists continue to offend after age 45. Just give them sentences that extend to age 50 or something.
One of the problems I have with these laws is the notion that we have workable methods to prove anyone "to be psychologically damaged and deviant" such that they "will will certainly assault another victim." The art of behavioral prediction is not anywhere near that good. The best that instruments like the Static-99 can do is produce a hazard ratio of maybe 3.
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Who will be the first to tell me I'm indulging in paranoid fantasies? [View all]
Jackpine Radical
Jul 2012
OP
Sounds like the old Soviet Union. If you didn't like the system, you had to be crazy.
leveymg
Jul 2012
#1
The overall rate of sex offense recidivism is in the neighborhood of 5%.
Jackpine Radical
Jul 2012
#5
No, I'm saying that the universal revulsion against sex offenders can be used
Jackpine Radical
Jul 2012
#24
i saw you piloting one of those black UN helicopters over my house, spraying TSP on my garden, so
dionysus
Jul 2012
#17
I can't beleive people are twisting what you say so much on the topic of sex offenders.
white_wolf
Jul 2012
#39
I'n not at all against commitment or protective placement in every circumstance.
Jackpine Radical
Jul 2012
#45
Jackpine, never give the "sensible centrists" and "pragmatic progressives" a bye
TheKentuckian
Jul 2012
#47