Would Donald Trump really be that easy to beat? [View all]

[ericson00]

We all know the standard "Trump's favorability is low" or that Trump loses badly (read present tense, not future tense) in head-to-head polls.

However, this guy is clearly the best political genius since Bill Clinton or Ronald Reagan. Trump was supposed to be dead before he announced. Here's a list of Trump's deaths.
0. Demanding Obama's birth certificate
1. Insulting undocumented workers who simply do jobs Americans won't.
2. Demeaning John McCain's war record
3. Saying "Obama will stop blacks from ever being president again."
4. Raising his hand at Baier's question.
5. The Luntz [rigged] "focus group."
6. The sexist quip at Megyn Kelly.
...

Yet he continues to rise in the polls, and now is beating Scott Walker in Iowa, still ahead in NH, and ahead in all national polls. He may even neutralize the Kochs entirely, as his presence in the debate helped other far right guys like Ben Carson and Ted Cruz overtake Jeb W. Bush and Scott Walker. This guy is politically savvy for sure. He also does not have Jeb's foot-in-mouth disease; everything Trump says he clearly means to say because he knows how there is a big disconnect between the media and the voters.

In a general election, would he really lose so badly, or at all? I'm starting to have doubts about Trump's non-viability. He did manage to turn his inherited fortune into a mega fortune, sell a ton of books, erect massive hotels and golf courses all around the world, and have a hit reality TV show. In other words, this guy can sell things very well! He lacks Bush's eponymous stigma, Walker's boringness, Cruz's ugliness, Carson's inexperience and extreme policy positions. Trump's rhetoric is much more extreme than his policy positions. He's also clearly trying to pivot to the center on Planned Parenthood, per him on Hannity's interview. (I watched the clips online; I won't be part of Fox ratings unless its a Trump Debate). It might be very effective in a GE to "not be bought" like him, yet he clearly looks willing to spend every dime of his fortune to be Prez. He could probably put Cruz on his ticket to rebutt the fact he's a racist, just enough to have a shot at swing voters.

Reagan was supposed to get destroyed by Carter. At the start of 1980, polls had that happening. While the fundamentals of 1980 heavily favored Reagan (Carter had the kind of election year approvals Bush I had in 1992; sub 40 on a consistent basis), clearly, being a joke at one time doesn't necessarily mean voters will think he's a joke when the lever/touch screen/butterfly ballot is in front of one.

Should we be careful what we wish for re. Donald Trump, GOP nominee? I think we'd be the joke of the world if he's nominated and elected. We don't need that again; we had it with Jeb's brother. But I don't want us to be the joke of election 2016. This is The Donald, not Dan Quayle.