The Real Trump Math [View all]

[louis c]

Donald Trump is being hailed by the Press as the real Republican front-runner nationally and driving the debate in the Presidential race. Here's my analysis.

There are two hot button issues, one on the right and the other, well, about working class Americans. One is immigration, and I intentionally mention immigration and not illegal immigration, because those who believe in Trump's position hate all immigrants.

The other issue is trade. On trade, those of us who think that all the trade deals over the last two decades have killed the middle class have an articulate and consistent spokesperson, Bernie Sanders. We don't need a hypocrite like Trump to speak for us. A hypocrite who makes his products in China, rather than America.

So that leaves Trump with one segment of the electorate he can really resonate with. Bigots.

Here's my math. About 30% of the electorate are Republicans and 20% of that 30% are bigots (1 in 5). The Democrats used to own this segment until 1964 and 1965, hence the term "yellow dog Democrats" and the "Solid South". We threw them out of our party with the Civil Rights laws and Voting Rights Laws during that time. They went to Wallace first, then they became Republicans. The "Solid South" is now solidly Republican, although we are tending to enlighten some and form coalitions in Virginia and North Carolina, but I digress.

I don't think there are as many bigots in this country as others may, but there certainly are some. I estimate it at 6% to 10% of the total population. Trump has them all (or almost all). I firmly believe those people reside in the Republican Party, although some we classify themselves as Independents. So, 30% of that 6% to 10% is 18% to 30%. That's Trump's ceiling in the Republican Party. That number looks huge when you divide the pie up 15 ways, but it can't win him anything in the long run.

In the General, that's 6% to 10% of the vote.

My prediction is Trump starts to get shunned and criticized by the Republican Party, and breaks off to run as a third party candidate.

The 6% to 10% of the bigots in this country will vote for Trump. Without the bigot vote in the Republican column, it will be impossible for any Republican candidate to win any swing state with Trump in the race.

Let's see if it plays out that way.