NOT OVER FOLKS: Karl Rove polls prove that GOP Senate victory NOT assured [View all]

[kpete]

THU APR 17, 2014 AT 09:38 AM PDT
Karl Rove polls prove that GOP Senate victory not assured
bykos

Not over.

I was just mentioning how hard the GOP's path to the Senate majority was, and Karl Rove's Crossroads decided to support my thesis by polling a bunch of the key Senate races. Politico's Morning Score email newsletter:

Arkansas: Democratic Sen. Mark Pryor 39, GOP Rep. Tom Cotton 39, not sure 22. Pryor approval rating: 38 percent approve, 44 percent disapprove; Cotton favorability: 31 percent favorable, 39 percent unfavorable. (Margin of error: ± 4.3 percentage points.)

Colorado: Democratic Sen. Mark Udall 45, GOP Rep. Cory Gardner 43, not sure 12. Udall approval rating: 38 percent approve, 46 percent disapprove; Gardner favorability: 30 percent favorable, 38 percent unfavorable. (Margin of error: ± 4.4 percentage points.)

Louisiana: In Nov. 4 primary: Democratic Sen. Mary Landrieu 40, GOP Rep. Bill Cassidy 35, Republican Rob Maness 4, Republican Paul Hollis 3, not sure 18 percent. In hypothetical runoff: Landrieu 43, Cassidy 47, not sure 10. Landrieu approval rating: 39 percent approve, 51 percent disapprove. (Margin of error: ± 4.2 percentage points.)

Michigan: Republican former secretary of state Terri Lynn Land 43, Democratic Rep. Gary Peters 40, not sure 18. Land favorability: 32 percent favorable, 32 percent unfavorable; Peters favorability: 25 percent favorable, 35 percent unfavorable. (Margin of error: ± 4.2 percentage points.)

Montana: Democratic Sen. John Walsh 35, Republican Rep. Steve Daines 42, not sure 23. Democratic former Lt. Gov. John Bohlinger 33, Daines 44, not sure 23. Walsh favorability: 33 percent favorable, 22 percent unfavorable; Daines favorability: 43 percent favorable, 31 percent unfavorable; Bohlinger favorability: 27 percent favorable, 23 percent unfavorable. (Margin of error: ± 4.3 percentage points.)

and then there is this:
Counterintuitive but true: In HuffPollster's averages, GOP not leading in a single Senate race:
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster

So we have Republicans with two, probably three solid pickup chances. Then there are four neck-and-neck races, three of which the Republicans have to win for the majority, but only if Dems don't capitalize on their own chances in Georgia and Kentucky. And this is the GOP's supposed surefire November Senate pickup? The fat lady hasn't sang, and frankly, neither has the GOP's crazy crop of candidates. Who will be this cycle's Richard Murdock and Todd Akin?

No, this game ain't over.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/04/17/1292553/-Win-the-Senate-Not-as-easy-as-Republicans-think

MORE:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/04/17/1292705/-Karl-Rove-polls-prove-that-GOP-Senate-victory-not-assured